NAM in the tropics

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Portastorm
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NAM in the tropics

#1 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 29, 2005 5:49 pm

Is the NAM forecast guidance model worth anything in the tropics? I know it is not a specific tropical weather forecast tool but a general one, right, as it used to be called the ETA?

Just wondering...

The 18z NAM is bullish on development on the WCarib system. I don't think the NAM did too good with Rita, so not sure what to think.

Michael
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CHRISTY

#2 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Sep 29, 2005 5:52 pm

can you post a link!
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#3 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 29, 2005 5:53 pm

CHRISTY wrote:can you post a link!


Yup, check this out at 72 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml


And ... I just re-read Wxman57's excellent "sticky" on all the models and see that he laughs off the NAM. I forgot it was on his list. Guess I shouldn't pay much attention to this.
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#4 Postby Steve H. » Thu Sep 29, 2005 8:28 pm

Well the EC also develops that low, then heads it west towards Tex/Mex. Also develops low over Bahamas (12Z run).
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#5 Postby stormcloud » Thu Sep 29, 2005 8:49 pm

The NAM has tried to develop the system in 84 hours since early this week. I guess if it forecasts strengthening the system long enough, it may finally get it right (cry wolf syndrome.)
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