99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Starburst]

can someone give me the low down on this invest. It's definitely getting better organized and in the 11:30am NHC discussion they say movement is WNW and possible NW later....where is it heading and how intense can it get...what about any cold fronts that could steer it NEward? How about the ridge to the North that is expected to build in?

Well I can tell that the noon news here in Corpus said that the front wont make it through our area! SORRY he said. Tells you how strong the front is

I was so mad that the cool front did not make it down this far!!!

[Galvestongirl]

can someone give me the low down on this invest. It's definitely getting better organized and in the 11:30am NHC discussion they say movement is WNW and possible NW later....where is it heading and how intense can it get...what about any cold fronts that could steer it NEward? How about the ridge to the North that is expected to build in?

Well I can tell that the noon news here in Corpus said that the front wont make it through our area! SORRY he said. Tells you how strong the front is

I was so mad that the cool front did not make it down this far!!!

your not kidding....it was as hot as haties today...as well as yesterday, and the day before, and the day before...lol

[Roxy]

Yeah that front really didn't make it too far, we have barely cooled off...maybe a degree.

So I guess it's not strong enough to pick up a cane...

[Recurve]

Question for you Texans -- when do y'all get cold fronts typically?
Here it's November, maybe late Oct. before a front gets through, with or without cooler air.

[dixiebreeze]

Keep an eye on 99 overnight tonight. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see it really organize around midnight or an hour or two later -- TD on Friday, IMO.

[Portastorm]

Question for you Texans -- when do y'all get cold fronts typically?
Here it's November, maybe late Oct. before a front gets through, with or without cooler air.

Typically our first real cold front (one that makes it into the Gulf) occurs right about now ... late September.

[vaffie]

Keep an eye on 99 overnight tonight. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see it really organize around midnight or an hour or two later -- TD on Friday, IMO.

I've been thinking it would for three days now, but it's just been so slow at doing so. It is looking better now than it has been so far. I mean, now it's at it's daily minimum and you still see a lot of convection, whereas two days ago, it all but disappeared and then came back. We'll see what happens with it. At least the 0Z model run will have the data on the Caribbean for it and we might have a better grasp of whether it will develop and if it does, where it'll go. Even the latest GFS run, which is what most of the other models get their initial data from, still barely even saw it. So we'll see. I don't think Texas or Louisiana or Mississippi or Alabama for that matter could even emotionally handle another big storm, so let's just wait and see.

[CHRISTY]

where is 99L going in the future???? opinions!

[conestogo_flood]

where is 99L going in the future???? opinions!

The Bay of Campeche of The Gulf of Mexico. My guess, without looking at models...

[CHRISTY]

hurricanec center said it wuz moving nw or wnw if its moving nw its gonna cross cuba then into florida?

[Starburst]

Cool fronts usually make it way down this way late October usually right before Halloween has been as late as early November though. I can tell you this many Thanksgivings you are still comfortable wearing shorts.

[Brent]

hurricanec center said it wuz moving nw or wnw if its moving nw its gonna cross cuba then into florida?

No... it would cross Cuba, but continuing NW would not take it to Florida. It's already at Miami's Longtitude now.

[wxman57]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

[Galvestongirl]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

shhh, that is quite enough of that kind of talk, I have eaten my crow over saying that this part of texas does not recieve storms at thsi time...and I dont want no more...my belly is full. j/k

[CHRISTY]

i think this system is forming north and east of were it wuz before! all the thunderstorm activity has shifted more to the north and east from were it wuz yesterday...

[Brent]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

I agree. I'm REALLY interested in the new blowup near/just north of the Cayman Islands. If it holds together overnight, I think there will be a TD tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

Dang ... a post from someone else (like me) saying "hurricane by Sunday" and I would blow it off ... but when a pro met who knows the Gulf well like you, 57, well ... (gulp).

[wxman57]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

Dang ... a post from someone else (like me) saying "hurricane by Sunday" and I would blow it off ... but when a pro met who knows the Gulf well like you, 57, well ... (gulp).

You also have to figure into the equation the fact that I was kind of hoping to get a day off after working hurricane shifts for most of the past 6 weeks. I was off half a day on Sept. 17th. Was hoping to get some sleep the next few days after Rita.

[CHRISTY]

it almost looks like its drifting north ever so slightly? we will see 2morrow

[Portastorm]

I believe that the focus for possible development is shifting northward to that cluster of storms north of 20N. The 18Z GFS sure sees it, as does the 12Z ECMWF. NOGAPS sees it, too. With the northward jump in the convection and blocking high to the north, it has nowhere to go but W-WNW. That means into the south-central Gulf by Saturday and then on to Texas. Storms trapped beneath blocking highs typically will develop, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a hurricane by Sunday.

Dang ... a post from someone else (like me) saying "hurricane by Sunday" and I would blow it off ... but when a pro met who knows the Gulf well like you, 57, well ... (gulp).

You also have to figure into the equation the fact that I was kind of hoping to get a day off after working hurricane shifts for most of the past 6 weeks. I was off half a day on Sept. 17th. Was hoping to get some sleep the next few days after Rita.

True, I seem to recall when you're starting to plan a day off, that's when the Gulf starts popping again poor guy, I bet you do need some sleep! Well, let us all know what day you are planning on taking off, then we'll know THAT is the day for major development!

Hang in there. We need you guys!