Hurricane Stan Recon Reports

[Nimbus]

They will make another pass further west as they fly back north and pick up the west wind for sure then.

[mf_dolphin]

was recon really necessary yet? i would think the budgets are so tight that they wouldnt waste a mission on something so marginal and far from the US.

jmho

I think it's important to remember that the US furnishes tropical cyclone information to a number of other countries through various agreements. Even though this isn't an imminent threat it did warrant a flight IMO

[wxcrazytwo]

was recon really necessary yet? i would think the budgets are so tight that they wouldnt waste a mission on something so marginal and far from the US.

jmho

I think it's important to remember that the US furnishes tropical cyclone information to a number of other countries through various agreements. Even though this isn't an imminent threat it did warrant a flight IMO

MF, don't ya think it was more precautionary than anything in light of the events that have transpired? I agree though.

[corpusbreeze]

Maybe they will investigate the swirl in the n. GOM. It looks more impressive than this blob.

[curtadams]

Looking at the RGB loop there appear to be W winds at about 17N 82.5W: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html I'm certain that's what they're looking for. There's something going on around 20 N too, from the convection last night, I'd think; but it's under shear and they may not consider it a threat.

Remember there is scientific benefit from data from potential TC, even ones that aren't going to become one. It helps calibrate satellite data and provides a basis for modeling which systems become cyclones and which don't.

[wxman57]

WONT41 KNHC 291912

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT FORMED. A LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
...OR 29.80 INCHES... WAS DETECTED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. HOWEVER... THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COLLOCATED WITH THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[wxman57]

why they are flying where they are is a mystery.

any rotation is way up near 20N

all they found were east and southeast winds as they flew in from the north. No low up north either. Just a wave axis.

[rockyman]

Earlier today, I mentioned the swirl north of the Caymans...but the idea was pretty much poo-poo'd...If the center eventually forms near 20N (the magic latitude above which BAMM/BAMD become worthless), the system could definitely be affected by features moving over the CONUS and could be dragged north toward the US Gulf Coast...

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 291923
AF307 01HHA INVEST HDOB 32 KNHC
1911. 1607N 08425W 00304 5021 353 006 252 242 006 00296 0000000000
1912 1608N 08426W 00304 5021 355 005 250 244 005 00296 0000000000
1912. 1608N 08428W 00305 5021 351 005 250 240 006 00297 0000000000
1913 1609N 08430W 00305 5021 353 006 250 236 006 00297 0000000000
1913. 1610N 08431W 00304 5021 350 005 250 236 006 00296 0000000000
1914 1611N 08433W 00304 5021 355 005 252 232 006 00295 0000000000
1914. 1612N 08434W 00307 5022 355 004 254 230 005 00297 0000000000
1915 1614N 08434W 00304 5022 340 004 250 234 004 00295 0000000000
1915. 1616N 08434W 00305 5022 332 004 250 236 004 00295 0000000000
1916 1618N 08434W 00305 5022 325 003 250 238 004 00295 0000000000
1916. 1619N 08434W 00304 5022 311 004 250 238 004 00294 0000000000
1917 1621N 08434W 00306 5022 319 004 250 236 004 00296 0000000000
1917. 1623N 08435W 00304 5022 326 004 250 240 004 00294 0000000000
1918 1624N 08436W 00304 5023 350 003 250 240 003 00294 0000000000
1918. 1626N 08437W 00305 5023 340 003 250 244 003 00295 0000000000
1919 1628N 08437W 00304 5023 351 002 250 244 002 00293 0000000000
1919. 1629N 08438W 00305 5023 346 004 254 238 004 00295 0000000000
1920 1631N 08438W 00452 5020 328 005 242 232 006 00450 0000000000
1920. 1633N 08437W 00770 0002 341 009 216 214 009 00795 0000000000
1921 1635N 08437W 01080 0022 360 008 198 196 008 01131 0000000000

[jax]

are they headed home.... or still looking around?

[cycloneye]

They are still in the area.

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 291921
97779 19154 50163 84600 03000 99005 25249 /0009
49905
RMK AF307 01HHA INVEST OB 16

[CHRISTY]

i think now there's a better chance now that if anything developes here it will get pushed to the north east by the upcoming cold front.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 291933
AF307 01HHA INVEST HDOB 33 KNHC
1921. 1637N 08436W 01399 0038 009 009 182 174 010 01473 0000000000
1922 1638N 08436W 01716 0058 014 010 162 158 011 01811 0000000000
1922. 1640N 08436W 02033 0079 025 014 152 128 016 02151 0000000000
1923 1642N 08437W 02340 0090 038 018 138 102 018 02478 0000000000
1923. 1644N 08437W 02630 0109 047 018 122 086 019 02788 0000000000
1924 1646N 08437W 02902 0127 054 017 104 072 018 03078 0000000000
1924. 1648N 08437W 03044 0137 061 015 096 062 015 03230 0000000000
1925 1650N 08436W 03056 0140 060 015 096 058 015 03246 0000000000
1925. 1652N 08436W 03047 0142 065 016 096 062 017 03239 0000000000
1926 1655N 08436W 03048 0142 067 017 096 062 017 03240 0000000000
1926. 1657N 08436W 03048 0142 070 018 096 062 019 03240 0000000000
1927 1659N 08436W 03069 0143 070 018 094 060 019 03261 0000000000
1927. 1702N 08436W 03208 0154 065 014 090 054 015 03412 0000000000
1928 1704N 08435W 03361 0167 055 011 080 044 011 03579 0000000000
1928. 1706N 08435W 03511 0177 052 011 070 034 012 03740 0000000000
1929 1709N 08435W 03663 0188 048 011 062 022 011 03903 0000000000
1929. 1711N 08435W 03813 0199 050 010 054 014 011 04064 0000000000
1930 1714N 08435W 03963 0208 053 008 044 002 009 04223 0000000000
1930. 1716N 08435W 04113 0217 048 008 032 001 008 04383 0000000000
1931 1718N 08435W 04265 0202 037 008 022 013 009 04547 0000000000

[jax]

i think now there's a better chance now that if anything developes here it will get pushed to the north east by the upcoming cold front.

Yikes... that would be right at you CHRISY !!!!

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 291953
AF307 01HHA INVEST HDOB 35 KNHC
1941. 1805N 08431W 07314 0420 048 008 161 161 009 07826 0000000100
1942 1807N 08431W 07322 0421 064 009 163 163 009 07834 0000000100
1942. 1810N 08431W 07320 0422 063 010 165 165 010 07834 0000000100
1943 1812N 08431W 07319 0425 062 010 165 165 010 07836 0000000100
1943. 1814N 08431W 07316 0427 072 010 165 165 010 07834 0000000100
1944 1817N 08431W 07318 0427 062 008 169 185 009 07835 0000000000
1944. 1819N 08430W 07316 0426 073 008 169 181 009 07833 0000000000
1945 1822N 08430W 07316 0425 067 008 165 203 008 07833 0000000000
1945. 1825N 08430W 07316 0425 061 007 163 197 008 07833 0000000000
1946 1827N 08430W 07316 0427 069 007 165 191 008 07834 0000000000
1946. 1830N 08430W 07317 0431 075 007 165 197 008 07839 0000000000
1947 1833N 08430W 07316 0426 068 008 165 195 009 07833 0000000000
1947. 1835N 08431W 07315 0427 069 009 165 197 010 07833 0000000000
1948 1838N 08433W 07316 0429 066 009 165 213 010 07837 0000000000
1948. 1840N 08434W 07315 0432 063 009 165 215 009 07838 0000000000
1949 1843N 08435W 07316 0432 065 009 165 213 009 07839 0000000000
1949. 1845N 08436W 07316 0429 053 008 165 217 009 07836 0000000000
1950 1847N 08438W 07315 0429 046 007 165 207 008 07835 0000000000
1950. 1850N 08439W 07313 0431 029 007 163 205 008 07835 0000000000
1951 1852N 08440W 07316 0429 036 009 165 225 009 07837 0000000000

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 291959
97779 19554 50193 84900 73200 03014 66752 /5761
RMK AF307 01HHA INVEST OB 17

[Brent]

i think now there's a better chance now that if anything developes here it will get pushed to the north east by the upcoming cold front.

Yikes... that would be right at you CHRISY !!!!

LOL!

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 292003
AF307 01HHA INVEST HDOB 36 KNHC
1951. 1855N 08441W 07315 0431 046 010 167 223 011 07838 0000000000
1952 1857N 08442W 07316 0437 051 010 169 225 010 07844 0000000000
1952. 1900N 08444W 07315 0435 050 010 167 225 010 07841 0000000000
1953 1902N 08445W 07315 0434 041 009 165 221 009 07840 0000000000
1953. 1905N 08446W 07315 0434 041 009 165 215 009 07841 0000000000
1954 1907N 08447W 07316 0435 038 009 165 217 010 07842 0000000000
1954. 1910N 08448W 07314 0435 027 013 157 247 013 07841 0000000000
1955 1912N 08450W 07314 0433 030 013 157 251 013 07838 0000000000
1955. 1914N 08451W 07316 0436 032 013 155 247 014 07842 0000000000
1956 1917N 08452W 07313 0436 035 014 157 225 014 07840 0000000000
1956. 1919N 08453W 07314 0434 040 010 165 191 010 07840 0000000000
1957 1922N 08454W 07316 0434 040 011 163 189 012 07841 0000000000
1957. 1924N 08456W 07316 0436 043 013 161 211 014 07842 0000000000
1958 1926N 08457W 07316 0435 046 015 161 239 015 07842 0000000000
1958. 1929N 08458W 07316 0435 044 015 161 233 015 07842 0000000000
1959 1931N 08459W 07315 0433 044 014 161 235 015 07839 0000000000
1959. 1934N 08500W 07318 0432 040 012 165 239 013 07841 0000000000
2000 1936N 08502W 07313 0433 043 011 163 229 012 07836 0000000000
2000. 1939N 08503W 07315 0431 051 010 165 239 011 07837 0000000000
2001 1941N 08504W 07314 0433 063 012 165 239 013 07837 0000000000


Acending and going away from 99L.

[chadtm80]

and I dont think they will