Storm in the Carolinas?

[jimvb]

Both GFS and NOGAPS are showing some sort of system or blob forming out somewhere south of Bermuda and heading west to the Carolinas by October 5 or so - next Tuesday. This has been appearing in GFS runs for some time now. GFS also shows that about a day or two after this storm hits the Carolinas, a cold front will sweep it out to sea, bringing rain throught the entire NE US coast. We need the rain. Richmond in September has had only 0.05 inches of rain, and they are threatening to impose watering restrictions. It's just that we don't need storm surges or wind.

A local TV meteorologist has said that we may get rain sometime next week, and the next day he used the word "tropical" in the forecast.

Is this storm likely to happen? Will it be tropical or subtropical, and how strong will it be?

[Marilyn]

jim i saw the same thing this morning and i am hoping it comes to past, We need rain here too. But not if a hurricane brings it. Hope someone here with knowledge can tell us what they think about this possible system.

[weatherwoman]

i didnt see it on the gfs but i did see it on the cma and ukmet where can i see it on the gfs? i hope it happens too jb says it will

[jimvb]

It shows up in this image of the 20050929 12Z GFS at 162 hours (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_162s.gif):