Vigorous Cape Verde Wave Emerging Off Africa Coast

[gatorcane]

This is the best-looking wave I've seen of the season. It's about ready to emerge from the coast. Good circulation and lots of convection:

[skysummit]

I agree, but I be it loses its convection a day after it's offshore. If the wave could hold together though, it'll be our "third" player down the road.

[cat_6]

can you explain to me how it can be a "wave" if it hasn't reached water yet? i don't quite understand the concept

is it just wind and dust or something as it exits africa...then that translates into a physical wave of water when it gets off the coast?

i'm a bit confused... thanks for any help in advance

[skysummit]

Cat6...think of it as a "wave of energy". It's not an actual wave in the water...more like a "pulse". Hopefully someone else can explain it better.

[krysof]

Could the wave between 40-50 develop?

[greeng13]

can you explain to me how it can be a "wave" if it hasn't reached water yet? i don't quite understand the concept

is it just wind and dust or something as it exits africa...then that translates into a physical wave of water when it gets off the coast?

i'm a bit confused... thanks for any help in advance

Don't think of it as water=wave.

I think it is a classification system...it becomes an ULL (upper level low) or at least a low pressure system of some sort, then a tropical wave, then a TD (tropical depression), then a TS (tropical/named storm), and finally a hurricane, then i would argue a new classification Mega-Hurricane (i.e. Super Typhoon in the Pacific). It is based on wind speed (and circulation if i am not mistaken).

Think of it this way....Rita and Katrina (much like many other named hurricanes that hit land) are still called tropical storms even when well over land--even as far north and land-locked as lets say kentucky or until the wind speed dies down.

I am an AMATEUR and please do not think that what i say is necessarily correct (unless i am backed up )

Hope this helps

[cinlfla]

Tropical Wave:
A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere.

I found this on the NOAA site. My best description is like someone else mentioned a wave of energy.

[audioslave8]

Unless conditions change soon in the Eastern Atlantic we will see nothing develop in the near future. Every single healthy looking wave that has come off the coast of Africa has fizzled out and which we know is very unusual since this is the month we see the most Cape Verde storms and most major as well come from this region. The way conditions seem to be out there with hostile sheering winds and lots of African dust it seems all the time I dont believe in my opinion we will see any true Cape Verde storms this year like Hugo for example and if we do it will be a fish. The remaining storms and hurricanes that form in the Atlantic should be in the Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM. Some will form from stalled out fronts like the low pressure in the Gulf now that came from the latest front combined with Rita's leftovers. It is getting sheered apart now and forecast to ride northeast when the next front approaches in a couple of days. We are getting ready for October now which means Fall is coming and that is great news we have more cold fronts to veer them away drier air to destroy them and tear them apart and more sheer than ever in the Atlantic. I think we will see one more late major cane in October. Hope its a fish but you never know especially how this year has been. Things hopefully should be starting to slow down some. we will just have to wait and see. I also believe the depression that might form in the Caribbean shouldn't get too big. If you noticed right now the whole GOM is full of dry air. If that moves out by the time the storm gets into the GOM then we could have a different story there. Right now I don't see the future Stan being a big deal but that is what we thought about Katrina too and looked what she turned out to be. This has far been the most strangest year in the tropics I have ever seen and I have followed storms for over 20 years.

[Hyperstorm]

Don't expect any development anytime soon out of this tropical wave that is just now trying to move offshore. Note, I say "trying". Yes, there is an Upper-Level trough that is dropping southward from the north and has slowed down the progress of this wave greatly. This is also providing mid-upper level shear from the west just north of it, which is stretching it toward the NE.

This is not a favorable sign for development...

[Coredesat]

These waves will probably be sheared to death, but any future waves could have an easier go of things. GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS continue to lift the trough out of the central Atlantic and build up the ridge within 72-96 hours. This condition persists through 144 hours.

[Hyperstorm]

I really doubt it will become more favorable in the far Eastern Atlantic to allow any development for the rest of the season. Conditions have been rather hostile all summer and as we move into Fall, troughs are becoming more powerful and cold fronts are penetrating farther south. Westerlies are slowly making it to the tropics. This is not good for development in that area.

Even if a strong Azores high develops, it will probably not be of much help to these waves in the far eastern Atlantic. Just because there is a strong ridge to the north, it does not guarantee that conditions will be ripe for development. There could easily be shortwaves of low pressure and strong Upper-Level lows that get cut-off underneath the ridge. This is exactly what we're seeing now.

[Frank2]

I agree - the Cape Verde season was never very favorable this year, and would likely become even less favorable as we move toward the colder months.

Frank

[Weatherfreak14]

Masn, they looks so beautiful

[Coredesat]

The UKMET's images are broken, but the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS all continue to develop a massive ridge over the Atlantic, and none of them seal off the eastern Atlantic between 72 and 144 hours. The trough is almost gone after 60 hours.

These models also relax most of the vertical shear south of 16N.

[WeatherEmperor]

How do you know so much about the FSU Superensemble if it is kept privatly inhouse at the NHC?

<RICKY>

[Coredesat]

Because I'm misidentifying a model on a webpage. *smacks forehead*

[tornadochaser86]

i think that wave has some potential to develop

[hurricanefreak1988]

Who said the train station was closed for the season? Looks like we're not done yet.

[WeatherEmperor]

looks like this wave has gone poof as well.

<RICKY>