Both CMC and Nogaps Develop our storm and Move twards FL....

[x-y-no]

Christy:

No ... what you posted is an upper-level windfield (300mb) valid 8pm tonight. It bears no relation to the surface level feature the CMC and NOGAPS develop in the 96 to 120 hour timeframe.

FWIW, none of the GFS runs so far have jumped on this development idea.

And once again, I emphasize that what the CMC and NOGAPS are developing is not our current invest, but the convectionless wave currently out at 55W or so.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Christy:

No ... what you posted is an upper-level windfield (300mb) valid 8pm tonight. It bears no relation to the surface level feature the CMC and NOGAPS develop in the 96 to 120 hour timeframe.

FWIW, none of the GFS runs so far have jumped on this development idea.

And once again, I emphasize that what the CMC and NOGAPS are developing is not our current invest, but the convectionless wave currently out at 55W or so.

I think that wave is what kicks our system down there now into gear by adding energy..

[CHRISTY]

really! can you post a link for that wave! thanks

[Marilyn]

Good morning , I just read Accuweather , I know, How some feel about Mr. B and Accuweather, But i did read and Mr. B states that pressure building up over NE and NW Atl next week screams hurricane threat for the SE coast..? and something in the Gulf, Our weather met last night said the cool air we are getting now will cool the waters off on the east coast So if what Accu is saying comes to past wouldn't that keep a storm from getting too strong? Just wondering,, What do you think??

[CHRISTY]

can you post a link of what you read. thanks

[x-y-no]

really! can you post a link for that wave! thanks

Like I said, there's no convection with it, so the approximate position is interpolated.

Here is this morning's surface analysis from TAFB, which puts the wave axis a little further back than I had it, about 53W:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Good morning , I just read Accuweather , I know, How some feel about Mr. B and Accuweather, But i did read and Mr. B states that pressure building up over NE and NW Atl next week screams hurricane threat for the SE coast..? and something in the Gulf, Our weather met last night said the cool air we are getting now will cool the waters off on the east coast So if what Accu is saying comes to past wouldn't that keep a storm from getting too strong? Just wondering,, What do you think??

can you post his daily thing here?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wouldn't the monster ridge keep whatever becomes of the 53W wave
well to the south of Florida since the ridge is forecasted to last so
long?

[Steve H.]

Right, and I actually think the NOGAPS is showing the pulsing up of the wave coming from the EAST, not necessarily 99L. Not that 99L couldn't come further north, but in Florida watch for trouble coming from the east.

[jax]

still way too early to tell...
we will know alot more tomorrow...

[Marilyn]

Good morning , I just read Accuweather , I know, How some feel about Mr. B and Accuweather, But i did read and Mr. B states that pressure building up over NE and NW Atl next week screams hurricane threat for the SE coast..? and something in the Gulf, Our weather met last night said the cool air we are getting now will cool the waters off on the east coast So if what Accu is saying comes to past wouldn't that keep a storm from getting too strong? Just wondering,, What do you think??

can you post his daily thing here?

Sorry south fl i donot know how to post it , but you can go to Accuweather.com and over to the right click on the little box where it says ( Hurricane expert Joe bastardi Tropical discussion) and there you can read it. its free today

[hicksta]

144 hours out...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nogaps and mm5fsu have a developed system (not 99L) in the northwest carribean in 5-6 days. Also there is a monster ridge.

[wxman57]

That's not 99L by Florida. It's a wave located well ENE of the Caribbean Sea. As high pressure builds to the north, the wave may move westward and reach the east U.S. coast by next Tuesday.

[Weatherfreak14]

Any possible development expected?