TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 280836
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0900Z WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this becomes a tropical storm we will only need 2 more to force a tie...The Eastern Pacific could still pull it off!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 280903
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z. THERE IS PLENTY OF
ROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE TWO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
EXACTLY CO-LOCATED. NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
SURFACE CENTER IS ON OR NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION...USUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR FORMATIVE SYSTEMS...IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT
THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS WELL DEFINED. THIS RIDGE DOES NOT
EXTEND WESTWARD VERY FAR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE BAJA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN
OVERALL MOTION SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF A CLIMATOLOGICAL
285/11-TYPE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...WITH THE
GFS TAKING A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITH A MUCH SLOWER INITIAL
MOTION. GIVEN THE PRESENT SHEARED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...I
THINK THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO RAPID TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z GFDL RUN...THE LAST RUN NOT TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE UP OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ROUGHLY
IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.0N 105.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT

It looks like this will become a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EVEN
THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOMEWHAT.
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED AND NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATE
THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AT 1200Z... SHIP
MCDW9 LOCATED 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND SHIP MKYJ8 LOCATED 120 NMI WEST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
1006.8 MB. THESE OBSERVATIONS... ALONG WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1005 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
KEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY EVEN DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE TIMING AND
DEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE
FASTEST AND STRONGEST WITH ERODING THE RIDGE...AND THOSE MODELS
RECURVE THE CYCLONE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 96-120 HOURS. IN
CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND THE NOGAPS MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH EROSION OF THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DATA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE RATHER WEAK
LOOKING APPEARANCE OF THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO
LEANS CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TURNS THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E VERY WELL... SO THERE
MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20 KT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE 48-84 HOUR TIME
FRAME... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS... WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE OVER 28-29C SSTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER... WHICH MAY
BRING ABOUT SOME SLOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... IT WOULD REMAIN OVER 27-29C SSTS
... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE TOO LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48H AND 72H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.0N 105.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 19.7N 111.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 114.5W 55 KT

[wxmann_91]

Ya know, it's interesting how the race between the WPAC, EPAC, and the Atlantic is close. (19, 16, and 18 respectively)

[cycloneye]

When this TD forms into a tropical storm it's name will be Otis.