Tropical Depression Kenneth at CPAC

[krysof]

Finally I was able to dig this out! I keep noticing that this thing is still out there and it has been there for a while. 10 days now, it's expected to be a hurricane again.

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 250831
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KENNETH HAS A SMALL BUT
WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
RECENT SSM/IS AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE
UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 65 KT BASED ON THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE EYE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/3. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W BETWEEN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KENNETH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY
FORECASTING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER
THAT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF KENNETH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT STAY SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE GIVE THE HISTORY OF SLOW
MOTION OF THIS STORM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36 HR AND THEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTERWARDS.

KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD AT
LEAST ALLOW FOR IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24-36 HR.
AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
WHILE NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.5N 139.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.3N 140.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 16.2N 140.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 16.1N 141.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.2N 142.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 149.5W 35 KT

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 251440
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005

KENNETH REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE AND AN EYE HAS RECENTLY
BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...65 KT...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. ALTHOUGH NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM
COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS CAUSE WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

KENNETH IS DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD...260/2...AS IT HAS
BEEN LOCATED IN A REGION OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED
SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KENNETH. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...AND ALSO TO INCREASE THE
SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AND
SIMILAR TO IT IN THE LATTER PERIODS. THIS IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.3N 139.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.8N 140.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 142.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.5N 147.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W 30 KT

[Brent]

What the? I thought this thing was gone...

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005

THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND AN EYE
IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS
MORNING AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN
THE SHORT TERM...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CURRENT
TREND IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...INCREASING STABILITY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN KENNETH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE STEERING WINDS...BETWEEN A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENNETH...HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IN 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS
FEATURE IS LIKELY TO TURN KENNETH TO THE RIGHT...AND INCREASE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO
THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SYSTEM'S RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD
EXCURSION.

NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 00Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 15.8N 139.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.4N 140.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.3N 141.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.4N 142.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 151.0W 30 KT

[Scorpion]

My god Kenneth is still around? He's been around FOREVER it seems.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Seriously. Just go away, Kenneth. I hate those persistent E-Pac storms.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 260245
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005

GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILD-UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE WESTERN SIDE OF KENNETH REMAINS FAIRLY
DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
SAB AND TAFB AGREE THAT KENNETH REMAINS A HURRICANE. ALSO...THE
UW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES AN ADJUSTED
DATA-T OF 4.1 OR 65 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KENNETH
REMAINS A 65 KT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES BEYOND 48 HRS. FINALLY...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS STRONG SHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM IN
THE LATER PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/3 AS KENNETH IS SET TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BOUNDARY THAT STARTS AT 140W.
HOWEVER... VERY RECENTLY THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KENNETH WILL
BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HRS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IS AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS WILL MOVE KENNETH IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION. BEYOND 48 HRS... MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE KENNETH ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AS DO THE CONSENSUS
MODELS...CONU AND GUNA... AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 06Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.

FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 15.6N 140.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.4N 140.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.4N 141.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 15.8N 142.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 143.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 146.1W 45 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 148.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 21.0N 151.5W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

TCDCP4

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST SUN SEP 25 2005

HURRICANE KENNETH HAS VERY RELUCTANTLY ENTERED INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT. THIS WAS DETERMINED AFTER COORDINATION WITH
THE HURRICANE SPECIALIST AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA. WE EXAMINED THE GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOME VERY TIMELY MICROWAVE PASSES...AND FIXES
FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES TO MAKE THIS DETERMINATION. BASED ON
ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF KENNETH IS
WELL INTO THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AS OF 11 PM HST. THE
MOVEMENT FOR THIS ADVISORY IS TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...OR 210
DEGREES...AT 4 KT.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF KENNETH APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE AMBIGUOUS
THAN THE LOCATION OF ITS CENTER TONIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR FROM THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT IT
IS FEELING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KENNETH. HOWEVER...
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDICATES VALUES
OF ONLY ABOUT 4 KT FROM THE WEST. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
HURRICANE IS ALSO LIKELY CAUSING ADDITIONAL OCEAN UPWELLING IN ITS
VICINITY. SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE PROVIDING CURRENT T-NUMBER
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 4.0. FOR THIS ADVISORY...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF KENNETH IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL CPHC ADVISORY PACKAGE. THESE CHANGES
WERE MAINLY TO ADJUST THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND TRACK SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE GUIDANCE. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...WHICH
WAS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNA...GUNS AND CONU BEYOND 36
HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS REDUCED 5 KT AT 36 AND 48 HOURS
BASED ON THE GUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER HOUSTON


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.2N 140.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.1N 140.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 15.4N 141.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.1N 142.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.1N 144.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 147.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.3N 149.8W 35 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 152.9W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005
1500Z MON SEP 26 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 141.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 141.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 140.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.9N 141.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 65NE 55SE 55SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.4N 142.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.2N 144.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 145.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 148.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 19.9N 151.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 20.9N 154.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 141.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT JUST POPPED UP
SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF KENNETH...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ALL BUT VANISHED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION IS FAIR AT BEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE LESS PROBLEMATIC..RANGING
AGAIN FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...OR BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. BASED ON THE
PAUCITY OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO A STILL CONSERVATIVE 55 KT.

IT LOOKS LIKE KENNETH HAS STARTED ITS ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 270/5. PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER HAWAII LIKELY INDICATES THE
DEPARTURE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH. IT WAS THIS HIGH THAT STEERED
KENNETH TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH IS
BEING REPLACED BY A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TURN
KENNETH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO...PLACING KENNETH JUST SOUTH OF A TIGHT BUNCH CONSENSUS
AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.

KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
FIRSTLY AS IT MOVES IN A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...AND SECONDLY AS
IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ALSO...SINCE KENNETH WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS JOVA...
IT MAY MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
JOVA. SOMETIME DURING DAY 4 AND DAY 5...KENNETH SHOULD BECOME A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE TRADE FLOW.

FORECASTER CRAIG


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 14.4N 141.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 14.8N 142.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.9N 145.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 18.2N 147.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 150.6W 35 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 21.2N 153.7W 30 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 156.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

[cycloneye]

WTPA44 PHFO 270853
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005

ALL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
ESTIMATED LLCC. IN THE PAST SIX HOURS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER KENNETH ISN/T EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
INTENSE. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE THE NORMAL NIGHT TIME CONVECTIVE
FLARE UPS TYPICAL IN THE TROPICS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ON THE IR IMAGERY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CENTER POSITION IS FAIR AT BEST GIVEN THE SPREAD ON THE FIXES FROM
DIFFERENT AGENCIES. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 3.0 TO 3.5 FROM
THE SATELLITE AGENCIES CORRESPOND TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE 55 KNOTS
STAND FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

KENNETH IS STILL WOBBLING AROUND AND HAS NOT YET STARTED ITS
PROJECTED RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WE EXPECT THIS TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH
RESIDED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE GFS MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOTS OF
SHEAR WILL BE AFFECTING KENNETH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF KENNETH/S EXPECTED LIFE SPAN AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ABOVE SCENARIO CLOSELY BY SLOWLY
REDUCING THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH THROUGH 120 HOURS...THEN
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM. HAVE PLACED THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT
OF THE TIGHTLY BUNCHED CONSENSUS MODELS...HOWEVER JUST RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. MOST ELEMENTS ARE WORKING
AGAINST KENNETH...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AFTER JOVA/S
PREVIOUS PASSING...STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER...AND THE
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ALL THIS IN MIND LEADS
TOWARDS THE TRENDING OF THE INTENSITY DOWNWARD THROUGH 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER PROTON/POWELL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 14.3N 141.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.8N 142.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.9N 144.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 17.4N 145.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 18.7N 147.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 151.3W 30 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 21.9N 155.3W 25 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 160.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTPA34 PHFO 272044
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2005

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH TO CONTINUE WEAKENING BUT MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE STATE BY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.2 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.

KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...142.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST.

FORECASTER MATSUDA


$$

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTPA24 PHFO 272045
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005
2100Z TUE SEP 27 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 142.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 142.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 142.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.7N 142.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.7N 144.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.6N 145.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.3N 147.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 150.9W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.8N 154.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15N 142W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

FORECASTER MATSUDA


$$

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTPA44 PHFO 272105
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2005

THE THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH APPEARS INCREASINGLY SPOTTY AND UNIMPRESSIVE. WE HAVE KEPT ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45 KNOTS WITH DIFFERENCE TO 40 KNOT QUICKSCAT OBSERVATIONS AND A DATA T OF 3.O. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEARING WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME MAKING KENNETHS ABILITY TO SUSTAIN ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS VERY UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STORM WILL NOT REMOVE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BY ITS REMNANTS THIS WEEK END.

THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY PATH HAS BEEN PRESERVED FOR THE SHORTER TERM BUT HAS CHANGED TO A MORE WESTERLY ORIENTATION IN THE LATE PERIODS AS INCREASING SHEAR WOULD DICTATE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS AND FAVORS THE CONCENSUS MODELS IN THE MAIN.

FORECASTER MATSUDA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.1N 142.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.7N 142.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.7N 144.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.6N 145.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 18.3N 147.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 18.7N 150.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 01/1800Z 18.8N 154.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest track of Tropical Storm Kenneth and other related information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center... shows the remnants of it heading for Hawaii...
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/tcpages/KENNETH.php

[P.K.]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 63
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 PM HST THU SEP 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PHFO JTWC SAB AND GWC AT 1.5...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS 25 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT CONTINUES ACROSS
KENNETH. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...WILL MORE THAN LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DISSIPATION OF KENNETH. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KENNETH ON A WESTWARD
COURSE THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS CLOSEST TO CONU.

FORECASTER CRAIG


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 19.2N 152.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.3N 154.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 01/0600Z 19.1N 156.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATED