Atlantic Basin Shear Discussion, Shear Charts, Q&As, Etc

#21 Postby **orion** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:26 pm

Thanks CapeVerdeWave! ...that's what I was wanting to know.

#22 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:20 pm

#23 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:21 pm

#24 Postby **Andrew92** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:55 pm

Kinda makes me think 94L might not even develop! All that shear could saw away what little convection it has. 93L, on the other hand, I can see becoming Nate, but being a fish.

-Andrew92

MiamiensisWx · #25 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:40 pm

Shear is once again increasing in Florida and the Bahamas, with 20KT to 30KT shear now showing up on the charts. This shear to the south, along with potential shear to the north and southeast, may be part of what is causing Ophelia to seemingly weaken. The pressure is now up to 990 millibars, convection is more restricted, and the storm looks more ragged in appearance. These shear conditions, along with dry air, may restrict Ophelia's intensification.

Any thoughts?

Scorpion · #26 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:00 pm

Ophelia might be singing her final song. We'll have to see.

MiamiensisWx · #27 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 1:13 pm

Shear now is decreasing over Florida and the Bahamas slightly. Shear is now increasing east of the Bahamas due to an approaching ULL from the east... 10KT to 20KT shear is showing up there. There is shear to the north of Ophelia as well.

krysof · #28 Postby **krysof** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:36 pm

This may not strenghten at all, except weaken. Look at all the shear to the north and southwest, not to mention a huge blob of dry air pushing into it, doesn't show weakening of shear anytime soon. Ophelia looks sick right now, maybe fatal.

#29 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:25 am

krysof wrote:This may not strenghten at all, except weaken. Look at all the shear to the north and southwest, not to mention a huge blob of dry air pushing into it, doesn't show weakening of shear anytime soon. Ophelia looks sick right now, maybe fatal.

That was my impression when I saw the WV loop back around 5pmEDT.
Odd that it is not mentioned in any TWD or Ophelia advisories/discussions.
Could it be that NHC doesn't want us to get our hopes up, and other "pundits" don't want to stick their necks out in such a way that the general public may let their guard down and not prepare for a CONUS hit???

krysof · #30 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:18 pm

it has a better chance at strengthening because the shear around it is expected to decrease a lot

MiamiensisWx · #31 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:22 pm

krysof wrote:it has a better chance at strengthening because the shear around it is expected to decrease a lot

Agreed. Shear in front of Ophelia is now gradually lessening. To the south and southeast of her, however, shear is increasing, notably in the Bahamas (10KT to 20KT shear in that area). This means that Ophelia has a better chance of strengthening in front of her, at least slightly. Unfavorable shear is mainly behind her to the south, southeast, and east.

krysof · #32 Postby **krysof** » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:35 pm

bump- shear is increasing in central gulf

krysof · #33 Postby **krysof** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 6:57 pm

MortisFL · #34 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:04 pm

Cape, you are the shear king.

MiamiensisWx · #35 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:32 pm

MortisFL wrote:Cape, you are the shear king.

Thanks... very funny!

I wonder why the shear charts are now blank/don't show up... what's going on with them?

wxmann_91 · #36 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:34 pm

Error in the shear maps.

LOL, when I was looking at this thread and seeing the Nate comments, I thought that I'd traveled back in time. :lol:

MiamiensisWx · #37 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:36 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:error in the shear maps.

LOL, when I was looking at this thread and seeing the Nate comments, I thought that I'd traveled back in time.

Is my talking too dull and does not include enough information? Maybe that's why my thread is almost always near the bottom or on the second or third page...

:cry:

wxmann_91 · #38 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:40 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:error in the shear maps.

LOL, when I was looking at this thread and seeing the Nate comments, I thought that I'd traveled back in time.

Is my talking too dull and does not include enough information? Maybe that's why my thread is almost always near the bottom or on the second or third page...

BUMP

MiamiensisWx · #39 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:27 pm

*BUMP*

At least one of the two shear maps now work at least!

krysof · #40 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:42 am

Atlantic Basin Shear Discussion, Shear Charts, Q&As, Etc

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