NHC FAILED TERREBONNE PARISH COASTAL RESIDENTS!!!!!

[SouthernWx]

We have lived many years along the coast with minor hurricane impact. NWS, NHC, and local emergency official have treid to convey to all those moving to the coast the dangers a hurricane presents. People have refused to listen and then came the hurricane season of 2004 and yet still people will not listen. Now we have been hit by Dennis, Katrina, and Rita and there still does not seem to be an understanding.

How can people still not understand that if they build on the coast, one day they will lose everything. At some point YOU must take the responsibility upon youself to educate you on hurricane impacts to your region. If you choose to live in a bowl like New Orleans with category 3 protection, then you should not be surprised when a cat 4 hits and floods your city.

If you live in a surge prone area and there is a massive 500 mile diameter hurricane 300 miles to your south (Rita) you should expect some impact.

If you live in a city of 4.0 million people and 2.0 million decide they are going to leave all at once...there is nothing anybody can do to relieve the traffic problems. There was a plan in place for the phased evacuation, but everybody left Galveston and Houston all at once Wednesday and early Thursday....what the hell do you think is going to happen. It is not the govt. fault that you do differently than told. If you do not want to sit in traffic next time, by all means stay and drown in the storm surge.

In the end, the choice is yours, mets, emergency officials, and local law enforcement convey the information to those at risk and make recommendations. So the finger pointing needs to only look at the hand it is attached to.

Well said my friend....well said!

What we've all been horrified by this season in New Orleans, Gulfport, and Cameron.....what we cringed at in Punta Gorda, Fort Pierce, and Pensacola last season.....it will happen to every single community and county along the Gulf and Atlantic beachfronts at some time in the future.

What happened to New Orleans will someday happen again to Miami and Fort Lauderdale.....to Tampa/ St Pete.....to Houston....to Jacksonville, Sarasota, Palm Beach, Savannah, and Key West. We were very lucky Hugo's worst passed inland northeast of Charleston.....lucky Andrew was very small and just far enough south to spare downtown Miami and Miami Beach......lucky again this past week when Rita didn't begin bombing until past vunerable and IMO poorly evacuated Key West. If the bombing had begun 24 hr earlier and track slightly farther north, IMO we would have witnessed more bodies floating in the water; another hurricane catastrophe in 2005..

Hurricane season is NOT over....so instead of finger pointing and playing the "blame game", my advice to coastal residents? Keep your eyes toward the Caribbean and remain alert.....be prepared....and hope for the best.

Perry W.

[Rainband]

I agree, good Post Jeff and Perry and others. IF you live in a LOW lying area and a hurricane is near by..... Leave. The NHC did a Great Job with all the storms this year. Rita is no different.

[docjoe]

We have lived many years along the coast with minor hurricane impact. NWS, NHC, and local emergency official have treid to convey to all those moving to the coast the dangers a hurricane presents. People have refused to listen and then came the hurricane season of 2004 and yet still people will not listen. Now we have been hit by Dennis, Katrina, and Rita and there still does not seem to be an understanding.

How can people still not understand that if they build on the coast, one day they will lose everything. At some point YOU must take the responsibility upon youself to educate you on hurricane impacts to your region. If you choose to live in a bowl like New Orleans with category 3 protection, then you should not be surprised when a cat 4 hits and floods your city.

If you live in a surge prone area and there is a massive 500 mile diameter hurricane 300 miles to your south (Rita) you should expect some impact.

If you live in a city of 4.0 million people and 2.0 million decide they are going to leave all at once...there is nothing anybody can do to relieve the traffic problems. There was a plan in place for the phased evacuation, but everybody left Galveston and Houston all at once Wednesday and early Thursday....what the hell do you think is going to happen. It is not the govt. fault that you do differently than told. If you do not want to sit in traffic next time, by all means stay and drown in the storm surge.

In the end, the choice is yours, mets, emergency officials, and local law enforcement convey the information to those at risk and make recommendations. So the finger pointing needs to only look at the hand it is attached to.

absolutely beautiful post. i could not agree more. it is time alot of people on the gulf coast woke up to the fact that ultimately you and you alone are responsible for your own well being in the time of catastrophe. you are given info of storm strength, speed etc. info on evacs shelters etc. if you choose to ignore this info then you and you alone should bear the burden of your own ignorance, reckless disregard of the situation and dare i say....STUPIDITY!!!

docjoe
docjoe

[Aslkahuna]

Southern, I fear you may be right about this being Max Mayfield's last season. If for no other reason he might be asked to retire for publicly contradicting Jerkoff and Shrub. He might also get tired of all of the attacks from self appointed experts (like some on this Board and others) such as JB and one self delusional Senator. Once he retires, he will be free to speak his mind and we might really learn his feelings about matters-maybe in a book (one about these last two seasons could be quite fascinating to see the behind the scenes action). You and I have both studied these terrible but fascinating creations of Nature for many years and I even had to forecast their effects for 7 years but I think you would agree that collectively we probably don't come close to measuring up to Max's capabilities and knowledge.

Steve

[Lindaloo]

Listening to Max Mayfield testifying before a Senate Committee on CSpan I believe that there may be some changes to the way they do forecasts in the future. Nothing definite that I heard though.

A Hurricane warning is for winds but most of the Gulf Coast from Mississippi through Louisiana has been destroyed by surge. In the future there may be Surge warnings also not just surge forecasts.

By the way, even though Hurricane Francis landed 200 miles south of my location last year, the barrier island here was under mandatory evacuation. Not sure what was done as far as evacuation notices in Louisiana but heck the NWS forecast of the surge would have scared my behind outa there.

Doc Seminole

Correction on what I have quoted you in bold. You stated that MOST of the MS Gulf Coast was destroyed by surge, try all of it from Orange Grove, MS west to Bay St. Louis. The Alabama Coast suffered too down on Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre. The State Docks in Mobile and the waterfront sustained heavy damage too.

[MGC]

Thats right Linda! The Florida coast from where Dennis made landfall to Texas coast where Rita made landfall has been devestated this season. I can't recall a wider swath of coast that has been hammered in one season by three major hurricanes.......MGC

[MWatkins]

Southern, I fear you may be right about this being Max Mayfield's last season. If for no other reason he might be asked to retire for publicly contradicting Jerkoff and Shrub. He might also get tired of all of the attacks from self appointed experts (like some on this Board and others) such as JB and one self delusional Senator. Once he retires, he will be free to speak his mind and we might really learn his feelings about matters-maybe in a book (one about these last two seasons could be quite fascinating to see the behind the scenes action). You and I have both studied these terrible but fascinating creations of Nature for many years and I even had to forecast their effects for 7 years but I think you would agree that collectively we probably don't come close to measuring up to Max's capabilities and knowledge.

Steve

You know, I get that same feeling...Mark and I were discussing that idea on the way home from Katrina. I sure hope he doesn't step aside after this season, but who could blame him after he sat and watched as Katrina ravaged New Orleans after he begged an pleaded the authorities there to get people out?

I guess that makes Ed Rappaport the next director...and Dr Rappaport will do very well in that role. However...the NHC has had a lot of turnover during recent years...from Burpee to Jarrell and now to Max. And no question about it...Max is the best Director we've had since Neil Frank, and I put him right up there in the same company.

The Nation needs Max to stick around for a couple more years. I sincerely hope he does.

MW

[Terry]

The directors of the NHC always seem to retire before I wish they would. However, in light of the years they have given to tropical wx forecastin and the intense pressure they are under as directors, I can understand.

Someday I'd like to see them recycle some of the retired guys! But that is likely to happnen only in my dreams.

[wxmann_91]

If Mayfield retires and Rappaport becomes the new director, who would be the new deputy director?

Stewart?

Avila?

Blake?

Some other guy?

[MWatkins]

If Mayfield retires and Rappaport becomes the new director, who would be the new deputy director?

Stewart?

Avila?

Blake?

Some other guy?

I think you almost have to go with Richard Pasch...perhaps Avila...but I would guess that Pasch wins out.

Hopefully...I hope that's a non-issue next season.

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wonder how it would be like if Stewart become the director.

[TSmith274]

The NHC was slightly off on the landfall, but not by much. If I had to fault them in any way, it would be their innacurate prediction of the storm surge, in general. You need ask none other than The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The were told by the NHC to anticipate a certain level, but they were suprised by what they ended up getting, flooding the 9th ward once again.

I say good job NHC on the track. But they need to revise their thinking for storm surge in coastal Louisiana to account for the obvious detremental effects of the erroding coastline.

[weatherSnoop]

I would venture to guess the "storm surge prediction" in no way relates to the newest Industrial canal levy issue. I am aware the the lake rose by 6 feet, but rather than that area of the protection being "repaired" is see it as temporarily plugged from Katrina. GW being so adament about slowing down on the public return had to be based on something and it wasn't that he was sure the NHC underestimated the surge.

IMO, the levy system is all at risk due to 2 weeks of water undermining the foundation. I am not a civil engineer, but to blame the NHC for the most recent flooding in NO just boggles my mind...whew, better now!

[arcticfire]

Individuals are smart , people are stupid.

Just like how most everyone stops for crazy things like red stop lights when driving , there are a few that blow right threw them and kill themselves and other people. Someones house gets destroyed, and it's always going to be someone 's fault besides the house owner for building in a stupid spot. Someone remains uneducated about common threats in thier area and die from them again stupid.

Common example from my point of view is people whom move to alaska and think for some astranged reason I can't comprehend that it's ok to walk up and pet that nice bear over there. I kid you not , however the inevitable result and their aparent shock at what happens is truly amusing. I'm sure the last thought running threw someone that stupid's mind is "Why didn't someone tell me not to pet the bear" , nevermind that big "BEWARE OF BEARS" sign back at the trail head.

Member people always need someone to blame besides themselves for anything. NHC did just fine , they are not the problem , the people petting the bears are the problem.

[Lindaloo]

Some of you say they need to "rethink storm surge"? This should not even be an issue. I mean come on, we had two CAT5's churning across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. With that type of intensity everyone should know it is building a powerful storm surge.

In Pascagoula, they issued a mandetory evac for everyone south of HWY. 90. I am 2 miles inland and the surge reached my home. Everyone south of 90 was flooded. In some places there was 8 feet of water in homes.

What I do believe we have learned down here from Katrina, you can't compare one storm to another. If you do, you may lose your life. Camille was a major issue around here, but not anymore.

[Mac]

Here's the real issue, IMHO.

Most of us here on this board realized the potential for surge with this storm, even after it weakened some. But we're not the average Joes and Joelines. We are storm enthusiasts. The average person out there probably doesn't necessarily realize that once a storm reaches Cat 5 status, it's likely to bring a lot of surge with it whether it weakens before landfall or not. So the problem is the general public's lack of understanding about the true dangers associated with tropical storms.

That being said, I do not believe it's the NHC's job to educate the public. Their job is to warn the public--and that is exactly what they did. Educating the public about dangers in any community is really a community responsibility, but even moreso a personal responsibility. If you move to Kansas or Nebraska, or other states prone to strong thunderstorms, you should probably educate yourself about the dangers of tornados and make appropriate plans for dealing with them. If you live in earthquake prone areas, you should educate yourself about earthquakes and make plans for dealing with them. If you live down the street from a nuclear power plant, you should educate yourself about that, etc., etc., etc.

Citizens need to have a sense of personal responsibility about educating themselves, and they need to accept accountability for the decisions they make--and the ones they don't make. And if they disregard these duties, and end up in a heap of trouble because they made careless and reckless decisions regarding their own safety or the safety of their family, they absolutely should not be wagging their fingers at the closest government agency, whining that Big Brother didn't protect them. They should be dropping to their knees and thanking God that they live in the U.S.A.--a nation that has, throughout all time, dedicated itself to utilizing every resource at its disposal to save idiots from themselves.

[inotherwords]

Mac, I agree completely with your post.

I do think, however, that homeland security probably could launch a modest communications package that local and state governments could use to educate the public. I know that they spent money to launch the CERT project which equips people in neighborhoods to help each other in case of an emergency. Here in FL my mother was trained and got a whole kit full of stuff as her block captain. It reminded me of the old Civil Defense days back in the cold war. Until she received that CERT training, she really had no idea what hurricanes could mean in this area with regard to storm surge, and she's lived here for almost 30 years and had spent summers here for most of her life.

I think part of the problem is that there's been a long time since we've had a landfalling Cat 5 storm of any magnitude and so the public has tended to associate hurricanes more with wind. Here in FL, Charley and Andrew were powerful storms but very small and the storm surge was negligible. So our local mets always talk about storm surge and how dangerous it is, but I think people tend to glaze over when it's mentioned, or they don't really understand what it may mean to them. I have had a lot of questions since I moved here in 1997 about how bad storm surge could get in my area (meaning, how far inland and how deep) depending on a variety of different storm scenarios, and I've never once been able to get a clear answer. Compounding the problem is when you have storm surge plus waves.

So I do think it's up to the individual to try to get info. I've tried myself. But I also think that maybe there needs to be a little better info on this subject made available to those who want it. My solution has been to just evacuate if a storm that looks like it will be 3+ is headed this way, but I'd really like to understand more about how surge might affect me and others in my neighborhood. It might actually make a difference whether I stay here or move inland.

There really does need to be a Hurricanes for Dummies book. I looked it up on Amazon, and there isn't one.

[feederband]

Here's the real issue, The average person out there probably doesn't necessarily realize that once a storm reaches Cat 5 status, it's likely to bring a lot of surge with it whether it weakens before landfall or not. So the problem is the general public's lack of understanding about the true dangers associated with tropical storms.

Most people I talk to just think it is a one time wave that is spinning with the cane....I bet less than 1 % of not weather junkies could tell you what a storm surge really is...

[Derek Ortt]

I would think Pasch is for no other reason because he was Avila's PHD advisor

[SouthernWx]

The NHC was slightly off on the landfall, but not by much. If I had to fault them in any way, it would be their innacurate prediction of the storm surge, in general. You need ask none other than The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The were told by the NHC to anticipate a certain level, but they were suprised by what they ended up getting, flooding the 9th ward once again.

I say good job NHC on the track. But they need to revise their thinking for storm surge in coastal Louisiana to account for the obvious detremental effects of the erroding coastline.

Have you ever heard the term "state of the art"? It means there is a limit to the forecasting ability of the most skilled meteorologist; a limit to the capability and accuracy of the best computer model. I've researched Atlantic hurricanes for more than thirty years; consider myself an authority on them......and honestly believe NHC's forecasts this season have been as accurate as humanly possible; including the SLOSH storm surge forecasts.

IMO some folks simply expect too much....expect an accuracy and level of individual warning that is simply unrealistic in 2005; a precise forecasting skill that is unnatainable with the current state of the art. Look friend....people didn't die during Katrina and Rita due to poor storm surge warnings from the National Hurricane Center. Instead they perished because 1) they were too stupid and/ or apathetic to listen to timely, excellent warnings and evacuation orders; 2) they were too old, young, physically or mentally disabled to escape on their own (in which case, the blood is on the hands of the people responsible for assisting such individuals escape and failed to do so).

NHC has given everyone living along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, and Florida coast a 110% effort this season; a professional example for hurricane forecasting excellence. To see them blamed and "nitpicked" over details beyond their control; beyond the current forecasting state of the art truly angers me......truly....

Perry W.