99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

MortisFL · #162 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:42 am

sorry about the double posts

#163 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:43 am

And also, here we go again with NRL site down. I can't get the tropical cyclone page since 6am. I know, I know, FNMOC. But it's not as good.

Anybody see the notice on NRL this weekend, suggesting people use NHC as an "alternative"? If NHC would put up invests, I would. :roll:

#164 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:44 am

When are we going to get the "delete post" button back?

MortisFL · #165 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:47 am

bvigal wrote:When are we going to get the "delete post" button back?

good question

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:55 am

For the members who dont have the link to the backup site of NRL Navy where 99L invest is up as the main site is not working here it is.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

#167 Postby **Starburst** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:58 am

I know it is to soon to know where it will go but I almost hate for Houstonians to come back this week only to have to possibly evacuate again Friday or Saturday.

#168 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:17 am

models initially targeting South Florida. The good news is that South Florida is always targeted first and the models almost always change (hopefully)

x-y-no · #169 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:19 am

Not tremendous model support for the development of this system as of yet, but enough to merit continued attention.

Both the GFS and the Euro develop a closed low in the NW Caribbean in five days. Both models also show an extremely strong Atlantic ridge forming in that timerange and persisting several days - the GFS extends it a little over halfway across the Gulf, the Euro all the way into Texas. Both models carry the weak system west over the following couple of days, the GFS to south Texas, the Euro across the Yucatan to Mexico.

The Canadian also forms a weak closed low in the same area, and the NOGAPS does so further south near Belize.

The UKMET shows generally lower pressure in the western Caribbean, but doesn't develop anything.

All in all, suggestinve but not something to get really worked up about yet.

Also perhaps worth noting, the Euro has another wave in the Bahamas on day 7 under that monster ridge. So far, it's the only model showing that.

KatDaddy · #170 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:20 am

Odds are the Houston-Galveston Areas will not be effected by Invest 99. Frontal systems will be approaching the Upper TX Coast by the end of the week. Its this frontal system we hope protects us. I would speak of climo but this season has been atypical.

x-y-no · #171 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:21 am

boca_chris wrote:models initially targeting South Florida. The good news is that South Florida is always targeted first and the models almost always change (hopefully)

There's no significant surface low for the operational models to initialize on right now, so these tracks are meaningless.

#172 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:29 am

KatDaddy wrote:Odds are the Houston-Galveston Areas will not be effected by Invest 99. Frontal systems will be approaching the Upper TX Coast by the end of the week. Its this frontal system we hope protects us. I would speak of climo but this season has been atypical.

Um, KatDaddy ... the last time you posted something along these lines we got Rita.

:roll:

Try reverse logic and say this thing is coming to Texas! :lol:

TPACane04 · #173 Postby **TPACane04** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:46 am

KatDaddy wrote:Odds are the Houston-Galveston Areas will not be effected by Invest 99. Frontal systems will be approaching the Upper TX Coast by the end of the week. Its this frontal system we hope protects us. I would speak of climo but this season has been atypical.

Is the the same "odds" you gave for Rita two weeks ago? I loved that previous thread....I called it the "oopsie" thread.

KatDaddy · #174 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:00 am

Yeah Yeah I know. I will never forget that post. At this point its tough to think about the possibilty of another threat so late in the Texas hurricane season. Its very rare for Texas to get October storms

susan · #175 Postby **susan** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:03 am

Rare but it has happened......This is one freaky year so I am not counting out anything..Perhaps I will just wait to fully unpack. :eek:

#176 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:07 am

At least until now, there is nothing more than a scattered blob of convection.

KatDaddy · #177 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:09 am

Regardless of my thinking "its late in the season for a Texas threat", I am leaving most of the storm panels up until the weekend. This has been a crazy hurricane season.

hicksta · #178 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:09 am

Thats great... No one would leave.

cinlfla · #179 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:10 am

This is one freaky year so I am not counting out anything..Perhaps I will just wait to fully unpack.

I agree, I hope you folks don't have to deal with anymore storms this year. as far as unpacking I wouldn't fully unpack either, I packed and unpacked several times last year it just makes it a lot easier if you have your stuff semi-packed :wink:

#180 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:14 am

Heat potential off the charts in all around the Carrib. :eek:

SST's numbers

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