NHC FAILED TERREBONNE PARISH COASTAL RESIDENTS!!!!!

[LSU]

Don't have any links, but one example: used to fish down in Timbalier Bay, which was protected by Timbalier Island. Island used to be almost the size of what Grand Isle is now, but someone told me that it's split in some many places now, and is only 50ft wide in the widest places. Looking at a map from 20 years ago and 5 years ago shows a huge difference. If you can find a link to a satellite pic of the island from today that would be really interesting to see if we can see it at all.

[caribepr]

Not trying to bash anyone.....but no one in Terrebonne Parish should have been surprised by the significant storm surge; at least no one who's ever lived there while a major hurricane passed inland to the west.

PW

This is also the key, know the environment you live in.

It's unfortunate that some are suggesting that the Cajuns in the bayou don't know the environment in which they live. These people are more connected to their environment than just about anyone in the entire U.S. As LSU rightly points out, most of these people's families have lived there for generations. These aren't newbies, these aren't first generation Floridians building million dollar homes on swamp land.

However, they ARE laid back. They know about hurricanes, and had no reason to expect such high surges based on previous hurricanes. People in Vermillion and Terrebonne Parish are pretty surprised by the amount of water they are seeing. This isn't based on ignorance, it's based on past results from past hurricanes.

Past results were misleading in this case. I think there are two reasons for this.

1. Louisiana has lost a LOT of marsh land to coastal erosion in the last 50 years. That's extremely important.

2. While this storm was a weak Cat 3 at landfall, it was at one time, an extremely powerful Cat 5 resulting in larger than expected surge from a Cat 3.

I can't speak for the first poster of that line about the environment but I can say for myself I agree with you very strongly about bayou people of an older generation being more tied to the land and aware of their environment than many - almost added that to my post but didn't. My comment was directed to those who "don't know their environment" and look to blame others for the results when caught out. Cajuns I know can get surprised, but I don't hear blaming anyone or anything for it, unless it is themselves or wily Mother Nature.

[FunkMasterB]

This LA resident is NOT bashing the nhc. Please don't ever include me in your assessment of something unless you contact me first. I live 20-30 miles from the coast and I make it my business to be aware of what is going on. I did not think that Katrina would affect me but I was prepared.

With all due respect, I find this kind of laughable. You are comparing yourself, a moderator on a hurricane tracking message board, to the greater populace. It's great that you are that tuned in, but warning systems need to be tailored to the population at large. And in this case, we're talking about Cajuns deep in the bayou country. They are great people, I know them well, but they are not always "tuned in."

In any case, no one was predicting a 10 foot surge all the way up to Houma. Again, I'm not blaming the NHC because I think they do an awesome job. But clearly, surge models need to get better, and a better job needs to be done getting accurate surge information out to the general public (moderators on hurricane message boards and otherwise).

[FunkMasterB]

Cajuns I know can get surprised, but I don't hear blaming anyone or anything for it, unless it is themselves or wily Mother Nature.

It's true, you don't hear them complaining and blaming. That's not their way (yes, I'm generalizing).

[Deb321]

This LA resident is NOT bashing the nhc. Please don't ever include me in your assessment of something unless you contact me first. I live 20-30 miles from the coast and I make it my business to be aware of what is going on. I did not think that Katrina would affect me but I was prepared.

With all due respect, I find this kind of laughable. You are comparing yourself, a moderator on a hurricane tracking message board, to the greater populace. It's great that you are that tuned in, but warning systems need to be tailored to the population at large. And in this case, we're talking about Cajuns deep in the bayou country. They are great people, I know them well, but they are not always "tuned in."

In any case, no one was predicting a 10 foot surge all the way up to Houma. Again, I'm not blaming the NHC because I think they do an awesome job. But clearly, surge models need to get better, and a better job needs to be done getting accurate surge information out to the general public (moderators on hurricane message boards and otherwise).

I agree with you somewhat and I do think maybe more research needs to be spent on predicting storm surge. Forecasting weather is not an exact but IMO they have come a long way. I do remember the NHC and Max Mayfield repeatedly warning of the storm surge they anticipated. What more could they do??? Not everyone comes to great web sites like this one , I do because I want to stay well informed but I also watch other sources on tv.

[arcticfire]

I think the NHC did a great job on Rita. I have nothing nice to say about the people who where somehow suprised by this so I'll leave it at that.

[FunkMasterB]

. I do remember the NHC and Max Mayfield repeatedly warning of the storm surge they anticipated. What more could they do???

Well, ideally, you'd like to have Max Mayfield or whoever call the officials in Terrebonne Parish and say: "Look. You're going to have 10-15 foot storm surge there. Houma might be in danger and everything south from there will be under water." For all I know, that DID happen, but I doubt it because I think the storm surge was a bit higher than expected. Again, the NHC does the best job they can given the information they have. But there is room for improvement. They didn't nail this one perfectly as they sometimes do. This storm was weird. I'm definitely interested in seeing what can be learned from it.

[THead]

1. Louisiana has lost a LOT of marsh land to coastal erosion in the last 50 years. That's extremely important.

I don't know, but if this is occurring from normal wave activity over the years, would seem to me that would be a really good sign to get out of there when ANY tropical system comes anywhere near that area, especially being on the east side of the storm.

[CajunMama]

This LA resident is NOT bashing the nhc. Please don't ever include me in your assessment of something unless you contact me first. I live 20-30 miles from the coast and I make it my business to be aware of what is going on. I did not think that Katrina would affect me but I was prepared.

With all due respect, I find this kind of laughable. You are comparing yourself, a moderator on a hurricane tracking message board, to the greater populace. It's great that you are that tuned in, but warning systems need to be tailored to the population at large. And in this case, we're talking about Cajuns deep in the bayou country. They are great people, I know them well, but they are not always "tuned in."

In any case, no one was predicting a 10 foot surge all the way up to Houma. Again, I'm not blaming the NHC because I think they do an awesome job. But clearly, surge models need to get better, and a better job needs to be done getting accurate surge information out to the general public (moderators on hurricane message boards and otherwise).

Yes, FunkMasterB, I am a moderator here but did I say anywhere that I am a weather expert? I'm just a weather enthusiast and I have alot more to learn. I am a member of the general population so therefore it was wrong to include me. I also have in my email Rita alerts that was warning southeast LA parishes of Tropical Storm Warnings on Thursday.

As for not always "tuned in" I would disagree with that. You have many coastal residents that work in the gom on oil rigs. You have many residents who rely on the gom for their livelihood such as the shrimpers. You also have farmers who rely on weather reports. And I realize you won't ever get 100% aware of impending weather.

[FunkMasterB]

Thead, the thinking is that the coastal erosion in Louisiana is NOT a natural phenomenon. It's mostly human induced:

1. The direction of the Mississippi River was diverted. It used to be that the Miss meandered, changing it's course over the decades, and changing where it finally emptied into the Gulf. So it deposited silt over a wide area over time, building up the land.

2. Oil and shipping channels and levees have greatly influenced the pattern of erosion and sedimentation.

There have been lots of great pieces written about this phenomenon, and a few PBS specials on TV. It's a very real issue, and it's certainly man made.

[caribepr]

Thead, the thinking is that the coastal erosion in Louisiana is NOT a natural phenomenon. It's mostly human induced:

1. The direction of the Mississippi River was diverted. It used to be that the Miss meandered, changing it's course over the decades, and changing where it finally emptied into the Gulf. So it deposited silt over a wide area over time, building up the land.

2. Oil and shipping channels and levees have greatly influenced the pattern of erosion and sedimentation.

There have been lots of great pieces written about this phenomenon, and a few PBS specials on TV. It's a very real issue, and it's certainly man made.

Thanks for some direction on finding out more. I didn't know this about Louisiana (but man-made screw ups are the top reasons I left Florida - before it got worse, which keeps happening... )

[FunkMasterB]

As for not always "tuned in" I would disagree with that. You have many coastal residents that work in the gom on oil rigs. You have many residents who rely on the gom for their livelihood such as the shrimpers.

OK, I can maybe agree with this. The question then is, why where so many caught off guard? Clearly, many southern Louisianan's were. Was it because they got faulty information? Were the warnings not severe enough? Did they not care? My thinking is that experience from previous storms gave some a false sense of security. I think this storm was different, and the amount of surge caught some off guard.

[caribepr]

As for not always "tuned in" I would disagree with that. You have many coastal residents that work in the gom on oil rigs. You have many residents who rely on the gom for their livelihood such as the shrimpers.

OK, I can maybe agree with this. The question then is, why where so many caught off guard? Clearly, many southern Louisianan's were. Was it because they got faulty information? Were the warnings not severe enough? Did they not care? My thinking is that experience from previous storms gave some a false sense of security. I think this storm was different, and the amount of surge caught some off guard.

Sometimes, as that pithy, profound bumper sticker of yore said so succinctly S*** happens.

[FunkMasterB]

Sometimes, as that pithy, profound bumper sticker of yore said so succinctly S*** happens.

True. And I think most in south Louisiana would agree with you.

But, as a matter of science, this explanation should never be considered acceptable.

[CajunMama]

As for not always "tuned in" I would disagree with that. You have many coastal residents that work in the gom on oil rigs. You have many residents who rely on the gom for their livelihood such as the shrimpers.

OK, I can maybe agree with this. The question then is, why where so many caught off guard? Clearly, many southern Louisianan's were. Was it because they got faulty information? Were the warnings not severe enough? Did they not care? My thinking is that experience from previous storms gave some a false sense of security. I think this storm was different, and the amount of surge caught some off guard.

I would think that "normally" they would think they would only experience tropical storm conditions, not storm surge. This has been an unusual year to say the least, weatherwise. Also, the media had still been focused on Katrina and the recovery efforts.

[vbhoutex]

I am a little surprised that so many are surprised at the storm surge that occurred along the LA coast after what we all have seen with Katrina. Katrina and her CAT5 plus storm surge are recent history for all of us. Rita, just like Katrina was a CAT5 storm while approaching the coast. Why would you not expect possibly the same thing to happen unless one had not been paying attention to the weather recently, which I find hard to believefor anyone along the GOM coast. I think Mike watkins first post pretty well showed that a surge with wave action on top of it was expected.

[Downdraft]

A couple of reasons I see for getting caught off guard. One is hurricane history. It seems most of the Gulf measures hurricanes by Camille or Carla. You hear I survived Camille Katrina couldn't be any worse. On the other side it's this storm won't be another Carla. The other problem is the good old "line vs. cone." The media concentrated primarily on Houston and Galveston and the folks up in southwest Louisana got overshadowed. Yes, they were warned but I think the media could have come on stronger. The loss of tidal marshlands has been mentioned as a problem for New Orleans now but I'm sure it's a problem for everyone. We have so much to look at and a very short time to react to it before 2006 comes along. First though we have to make it through 2005.

[FunkMasterB]

vbhoutex, those are good questions.

First of all, I think most in southern Louisiana did heed the warnings of Katrina. Given the extensive flooding in Louisiana, it's telling that there were no deaths. I think people took it seriously. But, thousands did stay.

Still, even those that evacuated out of precaution were surprised by the surge. Why? Two reasons:

1. I gave examples of previous storms in Louisiana, as recent as Lily, that didn't produce anything like this amount of surge. Local experience may trump more recent experience in other states (with different geography, any number of different factors). Some people will go with what they know. "Audrey hit in the same place, it was a Cat 4, and we didn't flood at all. This is a Cat 3, so we should be OK."

2. Storm surge estimates may have been a bit low for some regions, for whatever reason.

I can't stress enough, it's always the prudent thing to evacuate if you live near the coast and a hurricane is making landfall anywhere within 200 miles to the east of you. I'm more focused on what is required to evacuate practically everyone (except for those stragglers that will NEVER leave).

[Aslkahuna]

For those who think that TS force winds are no great deal, let me enlighten you. A forecast of TS Force winds means that the winds will be sustained at 39-73 mph. Using a standard gust ratio of 1.5 (as determined by JTWC in the 1970's) over land, this means that the wind gusts will range from about 57mph to 109 mph-certainly capable of some really significant damage. In fact, most people even in the hurricane warning will experience winds of these intensities rather than the extreme winds of the storm which will be confined to the strongest interior bands and the eyewall. As for the storm surge, it's obvious that we need some serious research on storm surge dynamics so that we can better model them. It doesn't just happen in the GOM, look what Isabel did in Chesapeake Bay.
In fact. I believe that such research is very likely underway. Hurricane forecasting is a very difficult proposition because you are dealing with an extreme natural event which will be interacting with its environment and its eventual target in ways that are not fully understood and therefore not predictable. As for Tropical Storms being no big deal, obviously the person who said that hasn't seen the ferocious floods a Tropical Storm can unleash-Allison is the example used here but I've seen really bad flooding in Korea and the Philippines caused by TS's and even TD's.

Steve

[Eye10TX]

I think the spectacular devastation of these two giant hurricanes, back to back, and widely reported the world over, *might* make the point to more masses of people than anything else.

Those of us lucky enough to live in Houston and who really pay close attention to Dr. Neil Frank have had it drummed into us, by rote and repetition, for year after year, 'cane season after 'cane season, that more people are killed by the storm surge than anything else.

Since I'm probably 60 miles inland, I usually associated that storm surge information with Galveston and all those communities on Clear Lake and Galveston Bay. To me, *those* are the people who need to worry about storm surge.

THEN, we has TS Allison and I saw the bayous and rivers run backwards. That was all it took for me to understand that storm surge is MY problem, too. A long time ago, my then-husband and I were very avid "coasties" who fished a LOT and spent every leisure moment somewhere along the Gulf Coast.

I kept a weather radio tuned at all times and thought sometimes I would scream if I heard "from Port O'Connor to High Island" or "from Matagorda to High Island" one more time in the monotone NOAA broadcasts of storm warnings. LOL, I finally made hubby take me to see High Island, since I had no idea where it was.

Now, you see, wherever I was, it wasn't High Island, so the words and warnings just went in one ear and out the other, even though there was a hurricane or tropical storm bearing right down on me. I wasn't hearing "from Matagorda to Bellaire, TX" or any mention of MY location, so it wasn't registering.

All it takes is having a small camper blow over with just 45 mph winds in the middle of the night and you start paying closer attention!

Anyway, with the era of "super storms" now upon us for the next two decades, I think it's imperative that some in-depth and high-powered education be INFLICTED on *everyone* who lives near ANY coast.

And there should be very explicit hurricane and TS explanations and graphics included in all hotel and motel literature and on their CC-TV broadcasts during the season, so that tourists and travelers won't be caught in the storms and subject to search & rescue operations where they can't even be identified. Virtually all coastal communities have such populations of transients during the first half of the season.

The least scared beforehand, as well as least prepared, I have ever been was when on vacation in Puerto Vallarta, MX, one summer. I hadn't been near a TV set or newspaper for days, and got caught in a very bad "huracan" (with mudslides and landslides all around) without warning. I was fortunate to be in a solidly built hotel restaurant (wasn't where I was staying as a guest) and rode it out for 4-5 hours in an "outdoor" atmosphere, with only the concrete roof protecting me. When it was all over, THEN the fear caught up with me.

I do my part to educate everyone I know when any storm is forming or threatening places where there are people I know. And I have seen this being passed on to others, especially moreso in the past many years I've been online.

When my neighbors the other day heard the exact MSM reports I was hearing on TV, they were jubilant that Rita was "going east" and they just went on with their lives as if that were the end of the matter. Things like that still bother me no end. What *I* heard was "we're not sure where Rita will make landfall" (this was Dr. Neil, still after others were saying TX/LA border was "for sure") so Houstonians should stay alert to all warnings.

I treated Rita to the very end as if she MIGHT still continue westward and come in at Galveston and that I would receive the 100mph winds indicated and 8-12" of rain and possible overflowing of the two nearby bayous, causing street flooding and perhaps more.

Even after landfall, I kept everything in place until I knew the storm had left my area. I did learn something I hadn't known before! The orange flares that I mistook for lightning in the sky during our first heavy rainband were many, many transformers blowing, and being reflected in the very low cloud cover. I wasn't aware that the rainbands didn't contain thunderstorms! That's a very good thing to know, so that I can gauge when it's safe to do some electrical things (like staying online, especially). Luckily, they weren't *my* transformers, so I came out OK on everything *this time.*