AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... BUT THEY COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND
ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
11:30 AM TWO.
East Atlantic Wave
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cycloneye
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
I hate to say it, and I don't even know if anyone's looking out there, but that blob south of the Cape Verdes, to my eye, is looking as good as or better than anything we've seen out there this season.
Of course, as soon as I say this, it will probably go poof. But wouldn't *that* take the cake, to finish off September with a big Cape Verde long-tracker, after all that has happened, and after most have written off that area of the ocean.
It wouldn't be unprecedented....look at Flora in 1963, forming way out there on Sep. 26 and drilling Haiti and E. Cuba. And then there was Inez and her legendary late Sep/early to mid October tour of duty.
Of course, as soon as I say this, it will probably go poof. But wouldn't *that* take the cake, to finish off September with a big Cape Verde long-tracker, after all that has happened, and after most have written off that area of the ocean.
It wouldn't be unprecedented....look at Flora in 1963, forming way out there on Sep. 26 and drilling Haiti and E. Cuba. And then there was Inez and her legendary late Sep/early to mid October tour of duty.
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krysof
The one to the north of that new wave has little chance now since the upper level winds will not be very conductive for development, but that new one is in a much better environment. I think we may have Stan out of that one, also the wave in the Eastern Caribbean maybe has a chance but I doubt it, and I really am hoping not.
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Per records since 1851, ZERO storms have first formed as a tropical cyclone east of 55W after 9/25 and made it all the way to the U.S. Therefore, should this become a TD within the next couple of days, I give it only an extremely small chance to make it to the U.S. However, interestingly the latest one to do just that was one that formed in the eastern Atlantic on 9/25 in 1893 and a full 18 days later hit SC as a cat 3 on 10/13:
So, with today being 9/25, I won't say zero chance. Its best chance to make it all the way across is if it were to stay a wave until getting close to the Lesser Antilles.[/b][/img]
So, with today being 9/25, I won't say zero chance. Its best chance to make it all the way across is if it were to stay a wave until getting close to the Lesser Antilles.[/b][/img]
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