99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[O Town]

Scorpion, it appears that you are always getting attacked for your controversal predictions, but I recall you being on point regarding Katrina being a cat 5 in the GOM. Ironically, you were attacked over that one too. Even banned once, if I remember correctly. I'm glad you stick to your guns, nevertheless. No one wants to hear bad news, but why attack the messenger? Especially since the forum is for 'Talking Tropics' based on our amatuer opinions.

I agree. I thought this was the place to go to talk about the tropics, not to make forcasts. It's just talk and I enjoying hearing what Scorpion has to say as well. That said, I think we need to keep our eye on this, since climotology supports that Florida is more at risk this time of year then I for one will be watching closley. Common sense should tell people that this will not take Charleys exact track, and whos to say it will even develope? Lets just watch, and hope not.

[inotherwords]

Why when someone is asked to support a comment on this board, someone else usually deciphers it as an "attack". When it comes to the tropics, and possible landfalls, I'm just interested to know what makes individuals post certain thoughts. This is not b/c I disagree with them. It's because I would like to learn more about these systems. If someone believes a storm will develop, or will be forecasted to a certain location, I want to know why.

I agree with you, however in this case I will admit I'm directly challenging and questioning (NOT ATTACKING) a poster who has a known track record for being a loose cannon.

Anyone who says "but if it comes into the Gulf it will likely go along a Charley like path" without providing supportive data should not be surprised if people come down on him like a ton of bricks. This is not "likely." It's possible, but it's just as possible it will not.

We have been very polite to Scorpion and asked him to support what he's saying with data. We're still waiting. And yeah, it's an amateur board but that doesn't mean it's a place where foolish statements should be thrown around as if they were fact.

[cajungal]

Channel 4 New Orleans said that a cold front is supposed to be coming down mid week. Should protect Louisiana and Texas. Anything that gets in the gulf, will be steered into Florida.

[cycloneye]

Folks let's take it easy as this wave is just only that a tropical wave at this time and has no surface low with it.Also no invest is up for this wave nor the models that I haved seen do anything with the wave.What we have to do is to watch the progress of the wave in the comming days and see if ir organizes or not.

[Stephanie]

ANYONE that "forecasts" or makes a statement about where a hurricane is heading, it's strength, etc. had BETTER have backup to those statements. We've dealt with WAY too many trolls and people that come on the board with the sole purpose of upsetting people.

I'm not saying that they need to be like a professional meteorologist and have charts and other data to substantiate their claims, but at least let people know why you think a hurricane/tropical storm will behave the way you think it will.

[seaswing]

Channel 4 New Orleans said that a cold front is supposed to be coming down mid week. Should protect Louisiana and Texas. Anything that gets in the gulf, will be steered into Florida.

I agree...I have lived here all my life (all 46yrs.) and this IS the time of year that storms generally threaten the Gulf coast of Florida. See that I am not saying they all make landfall here but they usually are steered by the cold fronts that travel west to east and steer the storms near Florida. Climatology supports this...

[cajungal]

Even though it not impossible for Louisiana to see a tropical system of some sort in October. Lili hit October 3rd. And Juan hit the last week of October. I was only in the 4th grade when Juan hit and don't remember it much. But, he flooded large parts of Terrebonne Parish. Usually most systems in October get steered to Florida this time of year because of the cold fronts. Oh, and I was not saying in reference to this weak wave, I was just talking about tropical systems in general.

[inotherwords]

Thank you, moderators!

[seaswing]

huh???

[inotherwords]

Channel 4 New Orleans said that a cold front is supposed to be coming down mid week. Should protect Louisiana and Texas. Anything that gets in the gulf, will be steered into Florida.

I agree...I have lived here all my life (all 46yrs.) and this IS the time of year that storms generally threaten the Gulf coast of Florida. See that I am not saying they all make landfall here but they usually are steered by the cold fronts that travel west to east and steer the storms near Florida. Climatology supports this...

Yes, but there's a huge difference between saying that Gulf storms in October have a tendency to move toward Florida vs. saying that THIS particular storm, if it goes into the gulf, would LIKELY follow CHARLEY'S path. Which is what the poster said, and that is 100% unsupported by data.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes mods thank you!

[seaswing]

Yes, you are absolutely right, but I don't consider Scorpion a meterologist so I don't consider his/her opinion as a forecast. Thats why I think we come here, to see all different points of view. If I were to consider his post as a forecast as to what is impending, I would have to pack up and move to Minnesota every summer.....

[tailgater]

Let's reinstate the term POOF, there seems to be a complete lack of this term and others such as Dissipated.

[MzShell]

Yes, you are absolutely right, but I don't consider Scorpion a meterologist so I don't consider his/her opinion as a forecast. Thats why I think we come here, to see all different points of view. If I were to consider his post as a forecast as to what is impending, I would have to pack up and move to Minnesota every summer.....

BINGO!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think what Scorpion might have been referring to is that
cold front that the Channel 4 New Orleans was talking about.
The front may have prompted him to make his statement. But
Scorpion please tell us why you think a Charley scenario may take
place- for learning purposes and since I am right on the west coast.

[Noah]

Im confused on this post..,, are we looking a t a caribean storm coming our way? And something like a charley scenario?

[Dean4Storms]

Actually, what Scorpion is alluding too could be backed up loosely according to the 06z GFS which at 132 hrs, lines a front draped across Florida. As most of us know, a front coming down across Florida with a TC in the Gulf or NW Carib. would likely be picked up and move toward the west coast of Florida. But, first we have to have TC development and secondly a forecast this far out is VERY subject to change.

See the GFS link........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=132hr

[skysummit]

Im confused on this post..,, are we looking a t a caribean storm coming our way? And something like a charley scenario?

No...there's absolutely nothing out there right now. Just a wave in the eastern Carribean that shows no signs of development yet.

[rockyman]

Here's the 00z Euro 7 days out (I believe this is the area in the SE Carib...because I tracked it from 72 hours through 168):



Here is the link to the Euro website:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005092500!!/

[hurricanedude]

attitudes flareing!
I think i will get my weather info elsewhere..LOL