99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[chrisnnavarre]

It has Panhandle - Mobile written all over it. I hope they get some gas in here next week. I think we're about a week maybe out... 1-3 days for generation and intensification as it transits past Cuba, 3 days transist up across the GOM. Friday-Saturday event.

I guess this is going to be "Stan the Man".

[Ivanhater]

It has Panhandle - Mobile written all over it. I hope they get some gas in here next week. I think we're about a week maybe out... 1-3 days for generation and intensification as it transits past Cuba, 3 days transist up across the GOM. Friday-Saturday event.

I guess this is going to be "Stan the Man".

well i dont know how you know its coming here, i hope your wrong

[KatDaddy]

Someone else can have the rest of the tropical systems this year. The NGOM has had more than enough. Come on Westerlies and the cold fronts!

[cycloneye]

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. PRESSURES
ARE NOT FALLING OVER THIS AREA...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


11:30 AM TWO.

[KatDaddy]

A hurricane in the central GOM next week!! This is getting to be to much. Here is an excerpt of a tropical update from a private organization

.........If the wave travels slowly enough over the next 3-4 days, then it may arrive near western Cuba too late to be picked up by the cold front. If that's the case, then it could stall and begin moving slowly westward, blocked by high pressure to the north. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, chances of development may be very good, and it's possible that it could strengthen to a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by this coming weekend......

[Portastorm]

A hurricane in the central GOM next week!! This is getting to be to much. Here is an excerpt of a tropical update from a private organization

.........If the wave travels slowly enough over the next 3-4 days, then it may arrive near western Cuba too late to be picked up by the cold front. If that's the case, then it could stall and begin moving slowly westward, blocked by high pressure to the north. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, chances of development may be very good, and it's possible that it could strengthen to a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by this coming weekend......

Gee KatDaddy, you're just full of good news this morning!

All kidding aside, I'm glad you're safe!

[Brent]

.........If the wave travels slowly enough over the next 3-4 days, then it may arrive near western Cuba too late to be picked up by the cold front. If that's the case, then it could stall and begin moving slowly westward, blocked by high pressure to the north. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, chances of development may be very good, and it's possible that it could strengthen to a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by this coming weekend......

Great. Just Freaking Great.

[inotherwords]

Let's not freak out yet, people.

Look at historical data. While this is the time of year when we have to be alert to GOM activity, there are plenty of previous years when storms have formed in these areas that have never panned out or that ended up being fish.

Let's not jump on the doom and gloom train until it's warranted.

[inotherwords]

A hurricane in the central GOM next week!! This is getting to be to much. Here is an excerpt of a tropical update from a private organization

.........If the wave travels slowly enough over the next 3-4 days, then it may arrive near western Cuba too late to be picked up by the cold front. If that's the case, then it could stall and begin moving slowly westward, blocked by high pressure to the north. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, chances of development may be very good, and it's possible that it could strengthen to a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by this coming weekend......

And which "private organization" would this be, and what is their credibility?

[kmanWX]

So in all this is the 3rd system to be tracked?

[Scorpion]

This could be one for the West Coast of FL. Too early to tell, but if it comes into the Gulf it will likely go along a Charley like path.

Oh really? I'd like to see you back that up with current meteorological data that supports this movement.

Climotology supports it.

[inotherwords]

This could be one for the West Coast of FL. Too early to tell, but if it comes into the Gulf it will likely go along a Charley like path.

Oh really? I'd like to see you back that up with current meteorological data that supports this movement.

Climotology supports it.

In what way, specifically? If you're going to throw out some statement that this storm will follow Charley's path, then you better have good data to back that up. I'll be waiting to hear it.

Of course if you don't have anything other than "climotology" (sic) to back your statements up, maybe you should post a disclaimer.

[KatDaddy]

Its just one of the many private companies like Accu-Weather. No one should be alarmed but just pay attention to the tropical wave in the E Caribbean. The first option is to push the wave NE across Florida and away from the GOM. It all depends where the high pressure will be located when the wave is in the NW Caribbean. After what I experienced over the last few days I will not be concerned until its in the SE GOM and the high pressure is blocking its movement.

[skysummit]

This could be one for the West Coast of FL. Too early to tell, but if it comes into the Gulf it will likely go along a Charley like path.

Oh really? I'd like to see you back that up with current meteorological data that supports this movement.

I second this request. What is going on in the atmosphere right now that helps you support this statement....not climatilogical references.....just curious.

[no advance]

Right now some people are alittle touchie Better to leave the forecast to the pros. How about ??????? just joking.

[MzShell]

Scorpion, it appears that you are always getting attacked for your controversal predictions, but I recall you being on point regarding Katrina being a cat 5 in the GOM. Ironically, you were attacked over that one too. Even banned once, if I remember correctly. I'm glad you stick to your guns, nevertheless. No one wants to hear bad news, but why attack the messenger? Especially since the forum is for 'Talking Tropics' based on our amatuer opinions.

[skysummit]

Why when someone is asked to support a comment on this board, someone else usually deciphers it as an "attack". When it comes to the tropics, and possible landfalls, I'm just interested to know what makes individuals post certain thoughts. This is not b/c I disagree with them. It's because I would like to learn more about these systems. If someone believes a storm will develop, or will be forecasted to a certain location, I want to know why.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The sea surface temps are super warm in the western caribbean.

If it gets into the gulf and a cold front comes down across the US, it could turn it into Florida.

Lordy! that evil doer wif the hurricane machine may be a aimin at Tampa! :

Not sure if you are being serious or sarcastic.

This is a possibility. And the fact that I might be concerned about something like this doesn't warrant an eyeroll...no one is -removed- or
fearcasting. I am here to learn, not to see who can come up
with the best satire...

Anyway, the system appears to be developing much stronger
convection this morning. It is moving gradually into an environment
of much less shear (See the shear map on pg. 1 of this thread).
Development is certainly possible, if not llikely

[seaswing]

Well, we (being central Florida) are about the only ones that haven't gotten a storm yet this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see one here before the season ends.... but I am so ready for the season to be over....

[MzShell]

Why when someone is asked to support a comment on this board, someone else usually deciphers it as an "attack". When it comes to the tropics, and possible landfalls, I'm just interested to know what makes individuals post certain thoughts. This is not b/c I disagree with them. It's because I would like to learn more about these systems. If someone believes a storm will develop, or will be forecasted to a certain location, I want to know why.

I agree that it is necessary to seek further clarification on these predictions. Everyone is throwing defferent scenarios out there, but none of us really KNOW. Not even the pros. When the pros are wrong, the loss of life, safety, and economic loss are a factor. Lighten up. I realize everyone is on edge, though.