99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:12 am

ABNT20 KNHC 250913
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA...LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AND COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS
MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THAT THE POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... WITH VERY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... BUT THEY COULD WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA CAN BE FOUND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH.

FORECASTER BEVEN

The TWO mentions that area but anything that may get going it would be slow to do so.Being the water temps warm in the Caribbean this wave has to be watched down te road.However the wave has to contend with shear in the Caribbean.

Image

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:12 am, edited 69 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2005 6:56 am

EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HELD BACK ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS SLIGHTLY REPOSITIONED BASED ON SHORTWAVE
INFRARED IMAGERY...A 2212 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...LAND AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS...AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM TRINIDAD AND GUADELOUPE.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE MIGHT BE A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO INDICATIONS THAT THERE IS SURFACE CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-68W MOVING
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE VENEZUELAN ISLANDS AND MAINLAND COAST AND
HEADING TOWARDS THE ABC ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO
FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

The above is the 8 AM Discussion.
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#3 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:15 am

Great ... just great. :roll:
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#4 Postby BamaMan » Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:25 am

No No No
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#5 Postby beachbum_al » Sun Sep 25, 2005 8:29 am

Just what I want to wake up to and see this morning. :cry: :eek:
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 25, 2005 8:32 am

At least for now, there is no indication of a LLC, thereafter, lets wait 24 hours and if the convection persists, then start worrying about it. It may dissipate, let see what happens.
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#7 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 25, 2005 8:58 am

That flared up in a hurry.
This area is quite far south but there is an ULL over cuba which may pull it north some.

The ULL is rolling southwest under the big Texas to Florida ridge which looks like it is starting to come east in the water vapor loop.

I'm not sure if the ULL will provide shear down the road or just help ventilate the system?

Image

The Caribbean certainly does not have any upwelling from previous storms.
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#8 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:06 am

Nimbs ... for what its worth, JB (Accuwx) said yesterday that this would happen ... the eastern Caribbean wave would move into the western Caribbean (duh!) and would be ventilated by the ULL.

I guess those of us on the Gulf Coast -- or in my case near it -- are jumpy these days and if we see a flare-up down there our first reaction is "uh oh."
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#9 Postby no advance » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:06 am

If it develops will it be a Gulf Storm?
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#10 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:15 am

Lovely. :roll:

In October... most of our systems come from the Caribbean, and yes, it would be a Gulf threat.
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#11 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:23 am

Convection is Explosive! :eek: :eek: :eek: It was barely visible
yesterday.
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#12 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:23 am

MJO is very favorable here. This one has got my full attention.
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#13 Postby Wacahootaman » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:24 am

The sea surface temps are super warm in the western caribbean.

If it gets into the gulf and a cold front comes down across the US, it could turn it into Florida.

Lordy! that evil doer wif the hurricane machine may be a aimin at Tampa! : :roll:
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#14 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:28 am

Wacahootaman wrote:The sea surface temps are super warm in the western caribbean.

If it gets into the gulf and a cold front comes down across the US, it could turn it into Florida.

Lordy! that evil doer wif the hurricane machine may be a aimin at Tampa! : :roll:


Wait. Please don't tell me that there are any signs of a front coming down,
are there?
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#15 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:45 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
Wacahootaman wrote:The sea surface temps are super warm in the western caribbean.

If it gets into the gulf and a cold front comes down across the US, it could turn it into Florida.

Lordy! that evil doer wif the hurricane machine may be a aimin at Tampa! : :roll:


Wait. Please don't tell me that there are any signs of a front coming down,
are there?


Well... it is getting to be that time of year.
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#16 Postby Scorpion » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:51 am

This could be one for the West Coast of FL. Too early to tell, but if it comes into the Gulf it will likely go along a Charley like path.
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#17 Postby TampaFl » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:57 am

Scorpion wrote:This could be one for the West Coast of FL. Too early to tell, but if it comes into the Gulf it will likely go along a Charley like path.



:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#18 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:58 am

Image
Heat potential in the Carrib, scary. :eek:
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#19 Postby TampaFl » Sun Sep 25, 2005 10:00 am

Climatilogically speaking, October is the prime month for tropical storms and hurricanes to affect the west coast of Florida. The local tv mets were all saying that last night. (weeks left of a very active season. :eek:

Robert 8-)
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#20 Postby inotherwords » Sun Sep 25, 2005 10:00 am

Scorpion wrote:This could be one for the West Coast of FL. Too early to tell, but if it comes into the Gulf it will likely go along a Charley like path.


Oh really? I'd like to see you back that up with current meteorological data that supports this movement.
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