Rita Official Landfall Location?

[LSU]

It looked to me that it was either Cameron or Holly Island, but I can not see anything from the NHC that doesn't mention the Texas coast in regards to landfall.

Another complaint I have about the NHC is that it predicted on Friday that NOLA had a 0-5% chance of experiencing tropical storm winds. Reality was that NOLA had TS winds for 12 hours and that parts of MS that weren't even in the CONE (for you people who love the NHC CONE instead of the black line) experienced sustained TS winds as well. A similar trend can be found with regards to 50kt and hurricane force winds when you go westward.

[StormySouthFlorida]

So, can you do better?

Seriously, if not for the NHC, who would you count on for such important info?

Not being sarcastic here, just curious as to what your suggestion would be.

Please don't say Accuweather.

[Brent]

THE CENTER OF RITA MADE LANDFALL AT 230 AM CDT ON THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND JOHNSON'S
BAYOU.

[brunota2003]

It is important for users to realize that probabilities that may seem relatively small may still be quite significant, since they indicate there is a chance that a damaging or even an extreme event may occur that warrants preparation to protect lives and property.

So what? its experimental, which means the bugs have not been worked out yet...

These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind structure forecast, and on NHC error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.

[HurryKane]

Honestly, I expected strong winds from Rita, and we got them, to the tune of getting sent home from work at noon on Friday. I went by a wind swath graphic on the crownweather site and the experimental product NHC puts out. Our local forecasts called for strong winds as well; I would venture to say not many people in South MS were surprised at what Rita gave us. Common sense has to play a part in the process of expecting weather when you're east of a hurricane, too.

and that parts of MS that weren't even in the CONE (for you people who love the NHC CONE instead of the black line) experienced sustained TS winds as well.

The cone predicts potential path, I don't believe the NHC advertises it as the limit of the area to be affected by hurricane or tropical storm conditions.

Checked, and they do not advertise it as such and even address this on their track graphics pages:

. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center.

[brunota2003]

Another complaint I have about the NHC is that it predicted on Friday that NOLA had a 0-5% chance of experiencing tropical storm winds. Reality was that NOLA had TS winds for 12 hours and that parts of MS that weren't even in the CONE (for you people who love the NHC CONE instead of the black line) experienced sustained TS winds as well. A similar trend can be found with regards to 50kt and hurricane force winds when you go westward.

On that, the cone is ONLY WHERE THE CENTER IS, NOT THE WHOLE WIND FIELD!!!

It is also important to realize tropical cyclones are not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center.

[LSU]

Nope. The NHC comes out with an official chart detailing areas that are expected to get TS force winds, 50knot winds, and hurricane winds. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... d120?large is an example of one.

See above post for how wrong the NHC was. If they're not going to get it even close, why put one out?

[HurryKane]

That wind chart is an EXPERIMENTAL product intended to predict weather effects around the tropical system. It is not related to the potential storm path cone at all, the CONE which you are griping about in your initial post in its supposed 'relation' to TS force winds felt outside of LA.

At this point, you are grasping at straws for something to bash the NHC about. If you like, bash 'em for using all caps in their discos/advisories.

[Aslkahuna]

Those are EXPERIMENTAL products NOT operational ones-if you don't like them then why don't you send them a comment like they are asking for instead of bashing them? Incidentally, the Forecast advisory (not the Public One) gives the TS force and hurricane force wind radii for each forecast point. With a map and some colored pencils or markers one could make up a reasonably decent wind swath forecast on their own like we did in the old days-or if you're feeling lazy, you can always see the wind radii plotted on the track maps on the NRL site.

Steve

[brunota2003]

It is important for users to realize that probabilities that may seem relatively small may still be quite significant, since they indicate there is a chance that a damaging or even an extreme event may occur that warrants preparation to protect lives and property.

So what? its experimental, which means the bugs have not been worked out yet...

These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind structure forecast, and on NHC error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.

IF YOU NOTICE, I PUT THIS FIRST!!! STOP FREAKING BASHING THEM, IF YOU THINK YOU CAN DO BETTER, PLEASE TRY AND PROVE YOURSELF, DONT FORGET, YOU CANT USE THE NHC'S MODELS, YOU HAVE TO COME UP WITH YOUR OWN, ALSO, YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR YOUR OWN RECON FLIGHTS, HAVE FUN!!!

[Innotech]

Im not really sure what ,kind of winds Lafayette got. anyone knows for sure? they sounded pretty tenacious.

[Brent]

The cone is for the EYE path, NOT where the affects will be felt. How many times does that have to be said?

[Brent]

Oh and last time I checked, 4pm Friday

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

OVER 24 hours before the TS force winds would be felt...

[vbhoutex]

I find it interesting that LSU is the ONLY one bashing the NHC that was anywhere near the landfall of Rita. Anyone else notice that? How many times do we have to say that the wind field and the cone are two totally seperate things?????

And as far as 90% of the damage being in LA??? Try and tell that to the people of East Texas from Sabine Pass through Port Arthur, Orange, Beaumont, Jasper, etc. I think they would argue with that. I am not belittling what happened in LA because it was terrible to say the least, but your trying to tell those of us in TX that did experience Rita also that we had little to no damge is PURE BS!!!! Even here in Houston where you claim there was no damage I have pictures of homes with trees on them, cars with trees on them, etc.

[Lindaloo]

LSU claims to be a meteorologist from his local TV station, um yeah right! lol.

Well said, David.

[vbhoutex]

And we have yet to see a forecast from him or a request for the pro met label. I wonder if we could verify his credentials?(Yes, we do verify the credentials of all of our pro mets!) Funny thing that no ohter mets are chiming in with him. I wonder why?

[tornadochaser86]

it looked to me like it came on shore near the border or pretty damn close

[Brent]

it looked to me like it came on shore near the border or pretty damn close

Yes... only a couple of miles east. Look at a map. Sabine Pass IS the border.

[vbhoutex]

I believe the official will be that it went in over Johnsons Bayou which is about halfway between the State line and Cameron.

[gpickett00]

now LSU sees he was wrong and won't post again