About the NHC

[Rainband]

Kudos to the NHC. Noo one holds a candle to them IMHO

[skufful]

Kudos to the NHC. Noo one holds a candle to them IMHO

Here, Here !!! Would have rather had a martini glass toast, but didn't see one.

[f5]

i suggest that Max Mayfield and his crew at the NHC hibernate this winter beacuse next year is most likely going to be more of the same

[arkess7]

yea well ITS ALL ABOUT THE CONE......the NHC AND TWC did an awesome job of TRYING TO PREDICT where rita would make landfall....only mother nature knows where its going to go....god please give these people a break......they are only trying to save peoples lives....THE MEDIA then thats a whole different subject totally......you cant REALLY expect them to give ACCURATE forecasts........NHC and TWC are the people you should watch... geez

[LSU]

Isn't it nice how those who weren't affected by the storm praise the NHC?

The meteorologists throughout Louisiana are criticizing the NHC for being so stubborn in refusing to shift the track eastward. These meteorologists, along with Louisiana natives (and others) could see clearly with their own eyes that this storm would not end up close to Houston.

The public in Louisiana is upset that the media, following the lead of the NHC, made this a Texas storm, even though 90% or more of the damage will end up in Louisiana.

[HurryKane]

I was arguing the validity of the NHC forecasts on another board and used NHC graphics to back me up.

At the 11 AM advisory on Sunday, Sept 18, Sabine Pass and Cameron Parish entered the five-day cone of potential/doom nearly SIX days in advance of landfall.

At the 5 PM advisory on Tuesday, Sept 20, Sabine Pass and Cameron Parish entered the three-day cone of potential/doom--nearly FOUR days in advance of landfall.

[arkess7]

LSU.... well whats new????? ITS THE MEDIA AGAIN your talking about....you can never really trust the MEDIA.....dont you know that?

[skufful]

Isn't it nice how those who weren't affected by the storm praise the NHC?

The meteorologists throughout Louisiana are criticizing the NHC for being so stubborn in refusing to shift the track eastward. These meteorologists, along with Louisiana natives (and others) could see clearly with their own eyes that this storm would not end up close to Houston.

The public in Louisiana is upset that the media, following the lead of the NHC, made this a Texas storm, even though 90% or more of the damage will end up in Louisiana.

Well then, y'all in LA throw out all of the models and do your own thing next time. But you were in the cone weren't you? You know if they were Himacanes they would be more predictable. BTW accuweather was predicting the same or further South.

[dwg71]

I feel strongly that there shouldn't be a solid black line in the center of any cone. All the attention goes right there.

By not having a center line, naturally the focus is on the whole cone instead of one landfall point.

Bastardi is an idiot.

I think the black line is essential. I was on the south side of the line 48 hours out and it kept moving east with each advisory. I decided to stay and I am better for it. The storm hit 90 miles east of here and the damage was minimal, 90 miles on the other side was devestation.

We all learn from each expierence, we will do things better next time. IMO you cannot have 30+ die in an evacuation of the Houston Galveston area. Its unacceptable. We need a better plan. We need to do it in stages.

[HurryKane]

Isn't it nice how those who weren't affected by the storm praise the NHC?


The meteorologists throughout Louisiana are criticizing the NHC for being so stubborn in refusing to shift the track eastward. These meteorologists, along with Louisiana natives (and others) could see clearly with their own eyes that this storm would not end up close to Houston.

The public in Louisiana is upset that the media, following the lead of the NHC, made this a Texas storm, even though 90% or more of the damage will end up in Louisiana.

Well, now, how about us Mississippians who got the brunt of Katrina when everyone (media/cosmetic weather-heads) was only hollering about New Orleans?

Those of us with half a brain saw that we were in danger well in advance thanks to the NHC's potential path cone and got the heck out. The fact is, Louisiana coastline was in the cone of potential path as early as SUNDAY before Rita hit. For meteorologists to crab about the line when they are the very ones who should emphasize the CONE is ridiculous.

[arkess7]

if we didnt have the NHC or TWC then what we listen to the media?? i dont think so

[tronbunny]

I'll just be contrarian, all the way...

I disagree with all the critics.

The NHC does frequently remind the public that such predicitions are always loaded with variables, and that for everyone's safety, they must act as if they will receive a direct hit, if they're in the cone..
Texas officials did the absolute BEST thing...

As for certain commercial forecasting services....
They to, are not perfect. It is their job to provide as much detail and exciting interest as possible, all while covering their butts for liability!
a very precarious position to be in...
It was extremely exciting to consider the possibilities of a Cat 4 hitting the nations 4th largest city... makes very good news coverage... but coverage of sparsely populated bayous getting whacked with tens of inches of rain and tree snappping winds, does not sell advertising minutes!

I think the line should be removed from general public release, and leave the lines and models for the pros, and us aficianados that make an effort to research all the variables.

The NHC does a magnificent job, for little notoriety and praise.. they're the messengers that we want to shoot for bringing us bad news.
Their job is to provide us with information to help us make the best choices for our safety... not our entertainment, nor our interest.

3 cheers for the hardworking crew at the NHC!!!

[Javlin]

Isn't it nice how those who weren't affected by the storm praise the NHC?


The meteorologists throughout Louisiana are criticizing the NHC for being so stubborn in refusing to shift the track eastward. These meteorologists, along with Louisiana natives (and others) could see clearly with their own eyes that this storm would not end up close to Houston.

The public in Louisiana is upset that the media, following the lead of the NHC, made this a Texas storm, even though 90% or more of the damage will end up in Louisiana.

Well, now, how about us Mississippians who got the brunt of Katrina when everyone (media/cosmetic weather-heads) was only hollering about New Orleans?

Those of us with half a brain saw that we were in danger well in advance thanks to the NHC's potential path cone and got the heck out. The fact is, Louisiana coastline was in the cone of potential path as early as SUNDAY before Rita hit. For meteorologists to crab about the line when they are the very ones who should emphasize the CONE is ridiculous.

I agree HurryKane we saw it and knew what to expect.I do think that anytime a landfalling cane comes close to a large metropolis they will become the focus of the NHC.Another Classic example of this was Georges NO,NO over and over.Our local Met made the call 24 hrs in advance the MGC guys.I remember watching the news doing the plots telling my wife it's coming here.Her reply the news just said NO and hour later we where in the dark.I think it comes with the territory living next to a big city.Living along the Gulf Coast one has to become hurricane savvy.

[LSU]

Posted by Homestead resident on the NOLA forums:



"Same story with Andrew. Up to the last minute, they swore to god it was heading straight for South Beach, even though they knew that it was almost guaranteed to hit far south of Coral Gables. Their various rationales for maintaining the official lie were:

* They had to scare South Beach residents into evacuating, because if Andrew had jogged north at the last second and hit it directly, there would have been massive loss of life had people not evacuated. Ultimately, they were lying in vain... something like a third of the people in South Beach didn't evacuate anyway... and the ones who DID ended up evacuating to places that got hit even worse.

* Had they told the truth a few hours before landfall, all the people from South Beach who evacuated to South Dade would have hit the roads and tried evacuating again and got caught in the storm.

The problem is that now they've damaged their credibility among Dade County residents, and NOBODY believes them anymore. People who are nowhere near the official evacuation zone run away screaming, and people who are in "mandatory" evacuation zones yawn and fill out the waivers with their next of kin contact info."

[HurryKane]

Posted by Homestead resident on the NOLA forums:



"Same story with Andrew. Up to the last minute, they swore to god it was heading straight for South Beach, even though they knew that it was almost guaranteed to hit far south of Coral Gables. Their various rationales for maintaining the official lie were:

* They had to scare South Beach residents into evacuating, because if Andrew had jogged north at the last second and hit it directly, there would have been massive loss of life had people not evacuated. Ultimately, they were lying in vain... something like a third of the people in South Beach didn't evacuate anyway... and the ones who DID ended up evacuating to places that got hit even worse.

* Had they told the truth a few hours before landfall, all the people from South Beach who evacuated to South Dade would have hit the roads and tried evacuating again and got caught in the storm.

The problem is that now they've damaged their credibility among Dade County residents, and NOBODY believes them anymore. People who are nowhere near the official evacuation zone run away screaming, and people who are in "mandatory" evacuation zones yawn and fill out the waivers with their next of kin contact info."

Well, it's their life they're gambling with. Some people will choose to listen, and some won't. Some people will realize that there is a margin of error, and some won't.

Some people will try to prove a point and pay for it with their life, and some won't.

[Vandora]

The problem is that now they've damaged their credibility among Dade County residents, and NOBODY believes them anymore. People who are nowhere near the official evacuation zone run away screaming, and people who are in "mandatory" evacuation zones yawn and fill out the waivers with their next of kin contact info."

I usually stay a lurker for these sorts of threads, but that's simply not true of all Dade residents. Now, I wasn't here for Andrew, but my SO's parents, and many others I know here were, and they have nothing but respect for the NHC. When people focus on the line and the media hype, they do it to themselves. If you're in the cone, you're in the cone. Many here know that. At least a few of the stations here will tell you never to focus on the line, and that came true for us with Katrina's first hit, so thankfully, many of us weren't focused on the line.

I'm sure there are those down here who do feel that way, but I needed to say that being as general as "Dade County residents" is something I myself, as a resident here, do not see the majority as feeling that way. So saying "NOBODY believes them" simply isn't true.

Even with Rita, people evacuated just in case. The shelters held 500 people, that's of course not accounting for those who went to friends or hotels.

[WeatherEmperor]

The problem is that now they've damaged their credibility among Dade County residents, and NOBODY believes them anymore. People who are nowhere near the official evacuation zone run away screaming, and people who are in "mandatory" evacuation zones yawn and fill out the waivers with their next of kin contact info."

I usually stay a lurker for these sorts of threads, but that's simply not true of all Dade residents. Now, I wasn't here for Andrew, but my SO's parents, and many others I know here were, and they have nothing but respect for the NHC. When people focus on the line and the media hype, they do it to themselves. If you're in the cone, you're in the cone. Many here know that. At least a few of the stations here will tell you never to focus on the line, and that came true for us with Katrina's first hit, so thankfully, many of us weren't focused on the line.

I'm sure there are those down here who do feel that way, but I needed to say that being as general as "Dade County residents" is something I myself, as a resident here, do not see the majority as feeling that way. So saying "NOBODY believes them" simply isn't true.

Even with Rita, people evacuated just in case. The shelters held 500 people, that's of course not accounting for those who went to friends or hotels.

I absolutely agree with you. I was here during Andrew and I never once felt bad towards the NHC and I still dont. South Florida has more of a connection to the NHC since they are located in south florida themselves. Heck I am a student at FIU which is where the NHC is actually located at. I absolutely admire everything they do and South Florida has tons of respect for the NHC.

<RICKY>

[hookemfins]

Isn't it nice how those who weren't affected by the storm praise the NHC?

The meteorologists throughout Louisiana are criticizing the NHC for being so stubborn in refusing to shift the track eastward. These meteorologists, along with Louisiana natives (and others) could see clearly with their own eyes that this storm would not end up close to Houston.

The public in Louisiana is upset that the media, following the lead of the NHC, made this a Texas storm, even though 90% or more of the damage will end up in Louisiana.

Take a look at the 5pm advisory on Thursday, 36 hours before landfall:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al182005.public.021.shtml?
THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

How is that being stubborn? Whas LA in the cone? Was there a warning upto Morgan City? Was Lake Charles in all of the above?

For the record, I was affected by both Rita and Katrina on their visists to FL. I saw the focus during Katrina for Broward and Palm Beach county but I still prepared in Miami. Why? Because we were under a warning.

With Rita I saw that she was going to stay south but just in case she jogged further north, I prepared.

Now about that post you posted from the NOLA forums? What Miamicane posted is unfounded and untrue. Where's the backup? I was in Andrew and the same thing goes as above. Under warning, prepare.

[Downdraft]

Posted by Homestead resident on the NOLA forums:



"Same story with Andrew. Up to the last minute, they swore to god it was heading straight for South Beach, even though they knew that it was almost guaranteed to hit far south of Coral Gables. Their various rationales for maintaining the official lie were:

* They had to scare South Beach residents into evacuating, because if Andrew had jogged north at the last second and hit it directly, there would have been massive loss of life had people not evacuated. Ultimately, they were lying in vain... something like a third of the people in South Beach didn't evacuate anyway... and the ones who DID ended up evacuating to places that got hit even worse.

* Had they told the truth a few hours before landfall, all the people from South Beach who evacuated to South Dade would have hit the roads and tried evacuating again and got caught in the storm.

The problem is that now they've damaged their credibility among Dade County residents, and NOBODY believes them anymore. People who are nowhere near the official evacuation zone run away screaming, and people who are in "mandatory" evacuation zones yawn and fill out the waivers with their next of kin contact info."

Well LSU I went through 3 hurricanes in Florida last year and as for no one believing them anymore your dead wrong. Most people here trust the NHC a lot more than the media or anyone else.

[weatherSnoop]

I Do believe in the NHC and the work they do! That being said, I live in a vunerable location and never take my eyes off of a system (especially when it is in the gulf). This is not an exact science! TPC and NHC create a forcast and the storm usually makes landfall within their cone. My responsiblity is to prepare. It is their job to make sure I have the information, but it is my job to process the information and react.