2nd chance--EPAC?

OtherHD · #1 Postby **OtherHD** » Sun May 18, 2003 2:58 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like the low pressure around 100W has gotten better organized throughout the day. If there will be any tropical development, I'd expect it to be from this one...

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun May 18, 2003 3:21 pm

Yes HD this area look more organized than yesterday so it looks like a go in the comming days for development there.

#3 Postby **wx247** » Sun May 18, 2003 3:28 pm

Better organized, but we will have to wait and see.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun May 18, 2003 3:31 pm

Both low pressure systems have organized. The low near 100W does have a better chance of formation though.

#5 Postby **wx247** » Sun May 18, 2003 5:13 pm

The wave near 100W is looking much better organized than it did around midday! Thanks for the info. David.

mf_dolphin · #6 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sun May 18, 2003 5:19 pm

Yep, looks like the eastern of the two is trying to get it's act together. Have to keep watching to see if this continues. :-)

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Sun May 18, 2003 5:40 pm

Just the beginning!!!! :wink:

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun May 18, 2003 8:12 pm

The convection around the disturbance near 104W continues to become better organized, and outflow is becoming established over the system.
IMO, the system will probably become a depression within the 36 hours.

Floridatropicalwx · #9 Postby **Floridatropicalwx** » Sun May 18, 2003 9:06 pm

Stormsfury wrote:The convection around the disturbance near 104W continues to become better organized, and outflow is becoming established over the system.
IMO, the system will probably become a depression within the 36 hours.

You can also add strong convection to that list:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

The convection is becoming more concentrated, and the low pressure circualation is easier to define now. Slow development into possibly a TD within the next 36 hours (maybe less) is now likely.

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun May 18, 2003 9:14 pm

Floridatropicalwx wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:The convection around the disturbance near 104W continues to become better organized, and outflow is becoming established over the system.
IMO, the system will probably become a depression within the 36 hours.

You can also add strong convection to that list:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

The convection is becoming more concentrated, and the low pressure circualation is easier to define now. Slow development into possibly a TD within the next 36 hours (maybe less) is now likely.

Welcome, Floridatropicalwx to Storm2k...
Convection around the system continues to deepen as nighttime falls in that region (nocturnal maximum) ... the smaller low west of this system has decent ridging aloft ... with this same ridging, the 104W disturbance will be moving towards this and should only enhance outflow and development as well is looking more and more certain into a TD within 36 hours ...

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun May 18, 2003 9:25 pm

The low is back near 100W. Visible imagery as well as IR-2 imagery shows that the convection is not located with the area of maximum vorticity, which appears ot have closed off into at least an MLC today. For this reason, rapid development probably will not occur, but the system could become a TD within the next 24

OtherHD · #12 Postby **OtherHD** » Sun May 18, 2003 9:46 pm

I also noticed quikSCAT, and was not overly impressed. There is a (weak) low, and the winds aren't all that strong. That said, it's just getting started, and has been organizing all day. I expect to see a TD within 24 hours. Also watch behind the 100W low...GFS and Nogaps want to develop it as well...

weatherlover427 · #13 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sun May 18, 2003 11:02 pm

Hi all,

I live in SW California. What might this system's effects on me be? Thanks.

Joshua

2nd chance--EPAC?

2nd chance--EPAC?

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