About the NHC

[Downdraft]

I'm wondering how many of the second guessers in here given the great gift of hindsight would be blaming the NHC for supposedly missing the call on Rita's track if they really understood the problems of forecasting the track of these systems and what goes into evacuating an entire city of 5 million people. The fact of the matter is the NHC did an outstanding job of warning everyone in the CONE while most of the critics only want to focus on the line. You have to deal with facts and the facts are these. Houston and Galveston were in the CONE. A couple of days ago everyone in the CONE was looking at a category five hurricane that had the power to level an entire modern urban/industrial city. Based upon that FACT officials did the right thing and began the necessary evacuations.
I know some in here are really disappointed that Rita didn't maintain that strength and didn't hit Houston. It's as if seeing one great American city destroyed this year isn't enough for them. Despite the greatest advances in technology in the history of humankind when it comes to cyclone intensity forecasting we can still only make educated guesses. The NHC did forecast a weakened Rita (Cat 3) at landfall and they nailed that. They also readily admit that intensity forecasting is limited. It takes days to evacuate a city not hours and the threat when the decision was made was real NOT PERCEIVED. The NHC and Texas officials made the absolute right call.
I have been in public safety, specifically fire/rescue and emergency management my whole life. For most of my life I've dealt with tornadoes where the warning time went from it's here now to 15 to 30 minutes of it's coming. Now here in the southeast I thank my lucky stars for the NHC and the warnings and counsel they can give us to prepare for these ocean bred monsters.
I wouldn't want to be the professionals at the NHC. The pressures and stresses upon them are beyond I think what most in here would want to handle. I bet most rational people in Houston or Galveston or just about anywhere else are saying thank God we lucked out and not disappointed in the least the storm went somewhere else in the CONE. My heart and prayers go out to those that did face the wrath of this storm in the dark hours of last night.
I for one would argue that we should do away with the line entirely. The forecasted path should be represented by the CONE only. If you're to the right or left of the center of the CONE you should be as prepared as the middle. A spinning top on a spinning ball seldom follows a straight line.
Given the facts on a day to day basis the NHC nailed another one. If you don't believe that I suggest you go back to school become the best of the best in tropical meteorology and get a job in Miami.

[jlauderdal]

I'm wondering how many of the second guessers in here given the great gift of hindsight would be blaming the NHC for supposedly missing the call on Rita's track if they really understood the problems of forecasting the track of these systems and what goes into evacuating an entire city of 5 million people. The fact of the matter is the NHC did an outstanding job of warning everyone in the CONE while most of the critics only want to focus on the line. You have to deal with facts and the facts are these. Houston and Galveston were in the CONE. A couple of days ago everyone in the CONE was looking at a category five hurricane that had the power to level an entire modern urban/industrial city. Based upon that FACT officials did the right thing and began the necessary evacuations.
I know some in here are really disappointed that Rita didn't maintain that strength and didn't hit Houston. It's as if seeing one great American city destroyed this year isn't enough for them. Despite the greatest advances in technology in the history of humankind when it comes to cyclone intensity forecasting we can still only make educated guesses. The NHC did forecast a weakened Rita (Cat 3) at landfall and they nailed that. They also readily admit that intensity forecasting is limited. It takes days to evacuate a city not hours and the threat when the decision was made was real NOT PERCEIVED. The NHC and Texas officials made the absolute right call.
I have been in public safety, specifically fire/rescue and emergency management my whole life. For most of my life I've dealt with tornadoes where the warning time went from it's here now to 15 to 30 minutes of it's coming. Now here in the southeast I thank my lucky stars for the NHC and the warnings and counsel they can give us to prepare for these ocean bred monsters.
I wouldn't want to be the professionals at the NHC. The pressures and stresses upon them are beyond I think what most in here would want to handle. I bet most rational people in Houston or Galveston or just about anywhere else are saying thank God we lucked out and not disappointed in the least the storm went somewhere else in the CONE. My heart and prayers go out to those that did face the wrath of this storm in the dark hours of last night.
I for one would argue that we should do away with the line entirely. The forecasted path should be represented by the CONE only. If you're to the right or left of the center of the CONE you should be as prepared as the middle. A spinning top on a spinning ball seldom follows a straight line.
Given the facts on a day to day basis the NHC nailed another one. If you don't believe that I suggest you go back to school become the best of the best in tropical meteorology and get a job in Miami.

i have yet to see anyone in the last two years get close to nhc on track, there are a few private guys that have been awful and they know who they are and should step out. Its time for a gut check on the pro status on this board.

[artist]

and it really angers me that our own federal govt. is using /accuweather's reports-not the nhc's now!

[bvigal]

As for me, this year is no different than any other. My respect and admiration for the knowledge and dedication of the NHC just can't get any more intense!!! :clap::clap:

[Weatherfreak14]

I know accu weather can't get anything correct its like a 3yr old predicting a storm.

[canetracker]

http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=42

I understand the NHC was close but many in Louisiana disagree with your praise of them. Check out the local forum from WWL linked above.

This is a specific thread but just one of many threads like this: http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23126

[Wthrman13]

http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=42

I understand the NHC was close but many in Louisiana disagree with your praise of them. Check out the local forum from WWL linked above.

This is a specific thread but just one of many threads like this: http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23126

That thread is not surprising. No matter how many times you tell people to not focus on the exact forecast track, but rather the actual hurricane warnings given to you, they will still not listen, and many of those people will be the first to bash the NHC if the hurricane deviates even slightly from the forecast track, even want to blame deaths on them, etc. The fact is, the forecast of Hurricane Rita was very good, perhaps not as good as with Katrina, and yet you still have people hallucinating "mistakes" and "last minute unexpected turns" and calling for the NHC forecaster's heads on a stake, when in fact they should all be given medals.

[WeatherEmperor]

http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=42

I understand the NHC was close but many in Louisiana disagree with your praise of them. Check out the local forum from WWL linked above.

This is a specific thread but just one of many threads like this: http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23126

That thread is not surprising. No matter how many times you tell people to not focus on the exact forecast track, but rather the actual hurricane warnings given to you, they will still not listen, and many of those people will be the first to bash the NHC if the hurricane deviates even slightly from the forecast track, even want to blame deaths on them, etc. The fact is, the forecast of Hurricane Rita was very good, perhaps not as good as with Katrina, and yet you still have people hallucinating "mistakes" and "last minute unexpected turns" and calling for the NHC forecaster's heads on a stake, when in fact they should all be given medals.

I couldnt agree more my friend.

<RICKY>

[bvigal]

The NHC critiques themself as a routine. They publish stats comparing forecast tracks to actual. Every year, they just get better, the facts speak for themselves. Hurricanes are still "mother nature" and NHC continues to improve forecasting. There is no guarantee they MUST be right, if they are, it's a blessing, if they aren't, it's not a failing.

[wxmann_91]

Great job NHC as always.

The forecasters there are true heroes. They save thousands of lives each year.

[canetracker]

Their heads should not be on a stake. I agree.

Louisiana mets knew and some actually let us know this would come in around Lake Charles a day in advance. However, many less informed people don't pay attention to the cone and rely on the NHC, TWC and local/national media. Many thought it would hit Texas and they did not have to leave. I know to watch the WV's and other data, read local mets thoughts on forums, pay attention to the cone and to not rely on models with unpredictable storms. But some just caught local headlines about a Texas storm and took it less serious.

My thoughts are mixed right now. They did a good job but perhaps could have shited the track a little sooner.

[HurryKane]

Their heads should not be on a stake. I agree.

Louisiana mets knew and some actually let us know this would come in around Lake Charles a day in advance. However, many less informed people don't pay attention to the cone and rely on the NHC, TWC and local/national media. Many thought it would hit Texas and they did not have to leave. I know to watch the WV's and other data, read local mets thoughts on forums, pay attention to the cone and to not rely on models with unpredictable storms. But some just caught local headlines about a Texas storm and took it less serious.

My thoughts are mixed right now. They did a good job but perhaps could have shited the track a little sooner.

Typo of the year.

[canetracker]

Hurrykane,
That is funny and I accept the award!

[MGC]

Well, for the past several days all the media has broadcast was TEXAS. Louisiana didn't hardly exist until New Orleans started flooding again yesterday morning. I watched Fox and MSNBC last night and it seemed most of the reporters were in TEXAS....MGC

[inotherwords]

Well, for the past several days all the media has broadcast was TEXAS. Louisiana didn't hardly exist until New Orleans started flooding again yesterday morning. I watched Fox and MSNBC last night and it seemed most of the reporters were in TEXAS....MGC

So whose fault is that? People watching the line, not the cone. It happens every time.

[Shawlau]

http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=42

I understand the NHC was close but many in Louisiana disagree with your praise of them. Check out the local forum from WWL linked above.

This is a specific thread but just one of many threads like this: http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23126

That thread is not surprising. No matter how many times you tell people to not focus on the exact forecast track, but rather the actual hurricane warnings given to you, they will still not listen, and many of those people will be the first to bash the NHC if the hurricane deviates even slightly from the forecast track, even want to blame deaths on them, etc. The fact is, the forecast of Hurricane Rita was very good, perhaps not as good as with Katrina, and yet you still have people hallucinating "mistakes" and "last minute unexpected turns" and calling for the NHC forecaster's heads on a stake, when in fact they should all be given medals.

There should be an objective way to grade forecasts over the life of a system, and it shouldn't be dependent only on getting the landfall point right. I think the forecasts for Dennis were better than those for Katrina. I think the forecasts for Katrina were better than the forecasts for Rita. But its subjective as no method of grading the forecast exists. And one should.

[WeatherEmperor]

Well, for the past several days all the media has broadcast was TEXAS. Louisiana didn't hardly exist until New Orleans started flooding again yesterday morning. I watched Fox and MSNBC last night and it seemed most of the reporters were in TEXAS....MGC

So whose fault is that? People watching the line, not the cone. It happens every time.

Yes. You are absolutely correct in your statement. I agree.

<RICKY>

[simplykristi]

Again it is all about the cone, not the center line. Even my mom who is not nearly as weather savvy as I am is focused on the cone not the center line. NHC did a great job.

Kristi

[skufful]

Their heads should not be on a stake. I agree.

Louisiana mets knew and some actually let us know this would come in around Lake Charles a day in advance. However, many less informed people don't pay attention to the cone and rely on the NHC, TWC and local/national media. Many thought it would hit Texas and they did not have to leave. I know to watch the WV's and other data, read local mets thoughts on forums, pay attention to the cone and to not rely on models with unpredictable storms. But some just caught local headlines about a Texas storm and took it less serious.

My thoughts are mixed right now. They did a good job but perhaps could have shited the track a little sooner.

They shifted the track when they felt it was appropriate to do so. Had they shifted it earlier and it hit Galveston/Houston straight on there would be people like you complaining still. It is a no win situation for them. The last I saw of Bastardi he was showing a WV loop thinking it might stay further south of the models.

[gpickett00]

I feel strongly that there shouldn't be a solid black line in the center of any cone. All the attention goes right there.

By not having a center line, naturally the focus is on the whole cone instead of one landfall point.

Bastardi is an idiot.