TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
PHILIPPE REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN
SCATTERED CLUSTERS NEAR/AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. SHEARING AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N 62W HAVE
BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SQUEEZED INTO A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS...CREATING AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIELD OVER
PHILIPPE THAT WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER I SEE NO SIGN OF
THIS HAPPENING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE NO CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THEREAFTER. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT...GIVEN ITS
SOMEWHAT SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE...THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN AS A
HYBRID-TYPE OF CYCLONE. ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FORECAST SHOWS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION BY DAY 5.
THE CENTER CANNOT BE IDENTIFIED WITH GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND I
HAVE BASED THE LOCATION PRIMARILY ON A POOR FIX USING AN AMSU-B
IMAGE. A RECENT AMSR-E IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE
LOCATED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE
IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THIS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 350/10. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE CELL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME GLOBAL MODELS...E.G. THE GFS...
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A PIECE OF PHILIPPE'S VORTICITY WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND IN THE SUBTROPICS. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 23.3N 57.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 57.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 28.1N 59.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 60.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 32.5N 59.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 38.5N 41.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie
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cycloneye
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cycloneye
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TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
1500Z THU SEP 22 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 56.6W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.2N 57.6W...ABSORBED
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.6N 58.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.6N 58.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.5N 51.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N 45.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 57.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
1500Z THU SEP 22 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 56.6W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.2N 57.6W...ABSORBED
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.6N 58.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.6N 58.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.5N 51.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N 45.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 57.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF
PHILIPPE ACTUALLY STILL HAS A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION AND APPARENT ROTATION TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
AS A NOMINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. PHILIPPE IS A
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. A HIGHLY
DIFLUENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE CYCLONE'S
NORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN AND PHILIPPE APPEAR TO BE MOVING MORE OR
LESS IN TANDEM...SO I AM NOT EXPECTING THE CYCLONE TO BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/15. PHILIPPE...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING PHILIPPE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES GENERALLY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATING PHILIPPE
AND/OR THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL
LEAVE PHILIPPE BEHIND OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST ONLY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z UKMET RUN.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE WILL LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION
AND DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.5N 57.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 60.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 32.8N 60.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF
PHILIPPE ACTUALLY STILL HAS A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION AND APPARENT ROTATION TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
AS A NOMINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. PHILIPPE IS A
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. A HIGHLY
DIFLUENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE CYCLONE'S
NORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN AND PHILIPPE APPEAR TO BE MOVING MORE OR
LESS IN TANDEM...SO I AM NOT EXPECTING THE CYCLONE TO BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/15. PHILIPPE...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING PHILIPPE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES GENERALLY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATING PHILIPPE
AND/OR THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL
LEAVE PHILIPPE BEHIND OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST ONLY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z UKMET RUN.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE WILL LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION
AND DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.5N 57.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 60.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 32.8N 60.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
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cycloneye
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TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF
PHILIPPE ACTUALLY STILL HAS A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION AND APPARENT ROTATION TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
AS A NOMINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. PHILIPPE IS A
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. A HIGHLY
DIFLUENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE CYCLONE'S
NORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN AND PHILIPPE APPEAR TO BE MOVING MORE OR
LESS IN TANDEM...SO I AM NOT EXPECTING THE CYCLONE TO BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/15. PHILIPPE...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING PHILIPPE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES GENERALLY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATING PHILIPPE
AND/OR THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL
LEAVE PHILIPPE BEHIND OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST ONLY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z UKMET RUN.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE WILL LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION
AND DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.5N 57.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 60.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 32.8N 60.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF
PHILIPPE ACTUALLY STILL HAS A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION AND APPARENT ROTATION TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
AS A NOMINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. PHILIPPE IS A
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. A HIGHLY
DIFLUENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE CYCLONE'S
NORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN AND PHILIPPE APPEAR TO BE MOVING MORE OR
LESS IN TANDEM...SO I AM NOT EXPECTING THE CYCLONE TO BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/15. PHILIPPE...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING PHILIPPE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES GENERALLY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATING PHILIPPE
AND/OR THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL
LEAVE PHILIPPE BEHIND OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST ONLY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z UKMET RUN.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE WILL LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION
AND DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.5N 57.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 60.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 32.8N 60.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES... 735 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 58.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES... 735 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 58.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
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tornadochaser86
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cycloneye
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240243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
...PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE IS
BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A BROADER NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE
WAS DISSIPATING NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER AS THEY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EVEN THOUGH PHILIPPE IS DISSIPATING...THE LARGER LOW THAT
SURROUNDS PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
...PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE IS
BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A BROADER NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE
WAS DISSIPATING NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER AS THEY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EVEN THOUGH PHILIPPE IS DISSIPATING...THE LARGER LOW THAT
SURROUNDS PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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krysof
-
cycloneye
- Admin
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See you Philippe in 2011.
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Good riddance, see ya in 2011. Hard to believe you were ever a hurricane.
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TexasStooge
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