Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cjrciadt]

no gaping holes of dry air of her yet, unlike Katrina, Ivan, and Frnaces means tons of unrelentling rain.

[oneness]

US Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Impact Estimate of Rita

Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/23/2005 17:11

________Short | Medium | Long | Very_Long
Oil______51.4% |19.7% | 16.6% | 0.0%
Nat Gas_60.4% | 30.8% | 22.1% | 0.0%

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... x_oil.html

[cjrciadt]

Reaching the coast, how are there no dryspots yet in the bands. I went half and hour with no rain and wind sometimes with Frances holy structure, bad news for inland flooding.

[oneness]

latest radar shows eyewall continuing to breakdown....less than 50% now. possible only cat 2 conditions will be realized.

Have a look at radar loops of Katrina when her land interaction and core distortions began and you will see the same thing. The radar intensity is only showing us precipitation. If you can't see precipitation there, it does not mean the eye has dissolved in that area then miraculously reappeared again on the eastern side.

This storm is going to be terrible, every 930 MB class storm is, particularly when this large. Think Ivan, minimum.

[oneness]

Very intense convection cold tops, core intact.


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[skysummit]

[milankovitch]

Yah, Rita's really holding her own here.

[oneness]

Presenting, the south eye-wall which allegedly was AWOL. It’s very much still with us, just a long way from the radar and a lot of noise in the way for propagation and returns.

[JtSmarts]

Presenting, the south eye-wall which allegedly was AWOL. It’s very much still with us, just a long way from the radar and a lot of noise in the way for propagation and returns.

Yeah The NHC noted that the eyewall of Rita was definintly still intact in their discussion.

[THead]

Great images guys, thanks skysummit and oneness for the latest radar shots. That google earth one with the low perspective is especially nice.

[timeflow]

Odd that these radar returns show that dry and wide-open south side, just barely noticeable southern eyewall at the core... While the satellite imagery depicts cold cloud tops, and an eye feature that remains small and tight. Could it be the wind direction in relation to the radar? Or is it really rainless in that area? I wonder...

[tornadochaser86]

at around 1200 this afternoon ritas eyewall fell apart and she started weakening

[tornadochaser86]

yup

[timeflow]

It nudged a notch just now to the left, and squatted for a moment. Composite radar easier to see football-shaped eye. Soon to be in the end-zone.

[THead]

Odd that these radar returns show that dry and wide-open south side, just barely noticeable southern eyewall at the core... While the satellite imagery depicts cold cloud tops, and an eye feature that remains small and tight. Could it be the wind direction in relation to the radar? Or is it really rainless in that area? I wonder...

Got to be a quirk of the radar that someone can define better than I, but I'm sure, like you said, that it isn't empty there.......

[oneness]

Odd that these radar returns show that dry and wide-open south side, just barely noticeable southern eyewall at the core... While the satellite imagery depicts cold cloud tops, and an eye feature that remains small and tight. Could it be the wind direction in relation to the radar? Or is it really rainless in that area? I wonder...

If you look at the IR images posted above you can clearly see that the clouds in the Southern eye-wall have a much lower altitude to their tops. Thus their tops are only now coming into range of the radar, due to Earth’s curvature making i not possible to see if they are raining or not underneath (and it will be raining there - big time).

[timeflow]

Good point, Earth's curvature. On composite loop, some bands further out over the horizon simply must have higher tops, you can see the precip. But I'm thinking also the wind direction is blowing the rain away from the radar at speeds that cancel out the return the closer you get to the center on the south side. It's just a hypothesis. Center remains on an adjusted trajectory that looks like it will landfall square on the state border. Then what... a huge train wreck of non-stop precipitation and massive expanding windfield. Trapped. Incredible.

[oneness]

Sabine Pass/Lake area and Port Arthur appear to be pending landfall point for the eye wall. Spectacular cold tops in the west on final IR before sat blackout.

[Recurve]

Yes, inner core and eyewall has stayed healthy if not intensified on IR loops and level3 radar from Lake Charles is showing an intense NW eyewall with a secondary band hitting Cameron Parish.

The radar beam travels in a straight line, seeing higher with distance, also the closer eyewall blocks the farther eyewall I think.

Hoping everyone stays safe along the TX LA border. Massive surge to come in the Sabine, in the big lake, even the Atachfalaya I would think.

[Brent]

Rita looks to be the first hurricane in I can't remember how long to not be weakening significantly at landfall on the Northern Gulf Coast.