MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/SCNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790...
   
   VALID 142328Z - 150100Z
   
   WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN TX
   AND SRN OK...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING
   WIND SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
   
   SUPERCELLS ERUPTED QUICKLY ACROSS NWRN TX LATE THIS AFTN AND HAS
   MADE FOR A MESSY MESOSCALE SITUATION AS CELLS COMPETE/INTERACT.
   PRIMARY SUPERCELL OVER SRN FOARD COUNTY IS BEING SEEDED FROM THE SW
   BY OTHER UPDRAFTS OVER KING/NRN KNOX COUNTIES. IF THIS STORM CAN
   MANAGE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE INFLOW...DOWNSTREAM BACKED LL FLOW
   AND LOW LCLS MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS WRN N TX NEAR/S OF
   KSPS.  OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE
   EXPECTED.
   
   OTHERWISE...LEFT-SPLITS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD WITH ADDITIONAL
   STORMS DEVELOPING INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH THE EVENING.  MLCAPES
   OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 75-90 KTS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL INITIALLY.  PRIND THAT
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND DEVELOP A SUFFICIENT
   COLD POOL FOR A POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND EVENT FROM NWRN/NCNTRL
   TX-SWRN OK NEWD INTO SCNTRL AND PERHAPS CNTRL OK.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   34180154 35169691 33439701 32490152

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR WWD ACROSS N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 151843Z - 152015Z



POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAR
SWRN AR/NERN TX WWD TO N OF MWL. AIR MASS S OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MODERATE UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON
OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS OF AROUND
70 F. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MO
IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL VWPS AND RUC PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE BUOYANCY PROFILE WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED
SHEAR.

CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AR. HERE...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF
SMALL MCS OVER SWRN AR/SERN OK/NERN TX TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
MAY SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE SCALE GROWTH AND RESULTANT COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION.

FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS N TX...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FAR W TX...SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161943Z - 162215Z
   
   TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN HIGHER TERRAIN OVER JEFF
   DAVIS/PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTIES TX...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS GUADALUPE
   MOUNTAINS REGION.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
   ISOLATED HAIL. WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
   ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX WWD INTO DAVIS MOUNTAIN AREA.
   SFC MOIST AXIS -- INCLUDING A FEW DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F -- IS
   ANALYZED FROM 6R6-CNM-TCC.  EARLIER STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER HAS
   LARGELY ERODED OVER W TX AND IS BREAKING INTO STRATOCUMULI OVER SERN
   NM...ALLOWING STRONG INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   EXPECT CONTINUED ELY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
   REGION.  MEANWHILE FURTHER AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO OVERCOME
   MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER -- EVIDENT IN 12Z MAF/DRT RAOBS -- YIELDING
   DEEP CONVECTIVE PROFILE WITH MLCAPES APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG.
   
   SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   SHORT-LIVED STORM ROTATION IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM JEFF
   DAVIS COUNTY NWD.  ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   WEAK...STRONG VEERING OF WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IS INDICATED IN
   MAF VWP...AND PROGGED BY SHORT-TERM RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM AGL SRH UP TO 200 J/KG.  NORMALLY
   THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...HOWEVER
   WARM LOW-MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES PREVALENT BENEATH UPPER
   HIGH MAY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT.  RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL
   WINDS WILL MARGINALIZE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO OUTFLOW
   DOMINANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   30880500 31610512 33240504 33380453 32590423 31770398
   31210364 30610349 30080362 29790378 29840420 30730491

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794...795...
   
   VALID 172338Z - 180145Z
   
   CONTINUE WWS.
   
   SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...IS
   ONGOING AHEAD OF DRY LINE...FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
   THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  THOUGH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL RESULT
   IN STRENGTHENING INHIBITION FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED PARCELS WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS
   EVENING.  AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40-50
   KT...FORCING/SHEAR ALONG ITS AXIS SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
   WITH AT LEAST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE
   CAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG...FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
   WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   33590221 34780126 35930074 36989998 36649849 35479872
   34289946 33140170

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0408 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS INTO NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 182108Z - 182315Z
   
   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS NE KS/NRN MO FOR
   INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.
   
   APPARENT WITH ACCAS/GRADUAL CU EVOLUTION PER VIS IMAGERY...MODIFIED
   18Z TOPEKA RAOB SUGGESTS AIRMASS ACROSS NE KS REMAINS CAPPED FOR SFC
   BASED PARCELS ATTM...ATTRIBUTABLE TO WARM LAYER AROUND 750-850 MB.
   NEVERTHELESS...SOME WINDOW FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY EVOLVE
   SWD INTO NE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING IN PRESENCE OF
   SUFFICIENT HEATING/MASS CONVERGENCE NEAR SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. SHOULD
   SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT BECOME APPARENT...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
   INTO NE KS. CONDITIONAL PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
   
   FURTHER EAST...ACCAS/SCT ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED FROM NEAR THE
   ST. JOSEPH AREA INTO NW MO ALONG/EAST OF WARM FRONT. SHORT TERM
   UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NRN MO
   LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   39839739 40139687 40599294 39259254 39119282 38669417
   38549490 38809603 39349722

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NE NEB...SW MN...NW IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 798...
   
   VALID 182238Z - 190015Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE
   THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA.
   
   ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXTENDING
   OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD...AROUND CREST OF SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGE...INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
   
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PERHAPS OF MOST CONCERN NOW SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING
   IN CLUSTER NEAR O'NEILL NEB.  THIS IS OCCURRING WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED ON NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONG CAP...AND
   SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD THE SIOUX CITY IA AREA THROUGH
   00-01Z.  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF RISK OF
   ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
   DOWNBURSTS.
   
   STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
   EAST SOUTHEAST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE DES MOINES
   AREA...DURING THE EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   42759887 43139780 43409620 43249482 42739308 41399318
   40919495 41569584 41509722 41499826 42119899

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 797...
   
   VALID 182259Z - 190030Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SEEMS TO BE FOCUS FOR ONGOING
   BAND OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE THROUGH THE WATERTOWN
   /ABERDEEN AREAS.  ACTIVITY IS FORMING ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF
   SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FOR ELEVATED STORMS
   MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  IN FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME...
   THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN RISK FOR HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  ACTIVITY
   SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREADS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE 03-06Z
   TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   43950166 44580069 45349954 45749719 45399661 44919722
   44389898 43510071

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND/SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191628Z - 191800Z
   
   THE THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   INTENSIFICATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL IND HAS BEEN OBSERVED
   OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH MOST INTENSE TSTM LOCATED OVER
   MARSHALL COUNTY AS OF 1620Z.  INSPECTION OF VWPS/PROFILERS AND RUC
   OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ.
   PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR
   PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 850 MB.
   
   AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES NEWD
   TODAY...EXPECT ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN TO CORRESPONDINGLY
   INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND INTO NWRN OH.  THIS MODERATE
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   
   41638673 42108644 42548555 42538450 42238361 41658334
   40888356 40398442 40348532 40438611

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/NRN MO INTO NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191649Z - 191815Z
   
   THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z.
   
   AS OF 1635Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER
   PORTIONS OF SRN IA AND N-CNTRL MO.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z TOP SOUNDING
   WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A
   FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
   SKIES INVOF THIS ACTIVITY AND APPROACHING CLOUD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT
   STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES
   INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOR
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS.
   
   THIS HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE
   MOVING ACROSS NEB SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS NEAR COLD FRONT /PER CURRENT LATHROP MO
   PROFILER/ SUGGESTS THAT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING
   SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN LINEAR STRUCTURE OF PROXIMITY
   HODOGRAPHS.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   40159454 40989355 41529184 41719001 41118943 40048956
   39489106 39689402

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191929Z - 192100Z
   
   THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR
   DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS SLOWLY
   BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR TOP SWWD TO W OF EMP.
   PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  WHEN COUPLED WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
   MODIFICATION OF 18Z SGF SOUNDING FOR LOCAL SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS
   ERN KS SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS STILL REMAINS CAPPED FOR MEAN-MIXED
   PARCELS.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
   SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY AID IN FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   SWWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   
   CURRENT PROFILER DATA ACROSS ERN KS INDICATE LARGELY WSWLY FLOW
   THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE WITH 30-40 KTS OF VERTICAL
   SPEED SHEAR.  SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37459767 38819656 39689537 38629528 37399644

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN IL INTO NWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192002Z - 192130Z
   
   TSTMS INCREASING IN STRENGTH OVER ERN PARTS OF WW 800 WILL MOVE E OF
   WW BY 21Z AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   AS OF 1945Z...SPRINGFIELD IL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING
   OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IL /SPECIFICALLY MCDONOUGH COUNTY/ WITHIN
   ERN PART OF WW 800.  STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL
   PASSAGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES ACROSS CNTRL IL TO WARM TO AROUND
   90 F AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
   70...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
   1500-2500 J/KG.
   
   CURRENTLY...STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS EXIST INVOF EWD-MOVING WARM
   FRONT OVER NRN IND WITHIN REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION.  THUS...EXPECT THAT ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE/DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  INSPECTION OF REGIONAL VWPS
   SHOWS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT FROM CNTRL IL
   INTO N-CNTRL IND WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100 M2/S2 AT ILX INCREASING TO
   270 M2/S2 AT IWX.
   
   GIVEN THE MODERATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND/OR SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE THREAT OF
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP EWD TO
   VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY
   STRONGER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   41478909 41688836 41568707 41458651 40998628 40468657
   40188711 40078833 40118886 40148907

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD THROUGH CNTRL VA INTO N-CNTRL NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201639Z - 201815Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
   ISSUANCE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED 45-50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH DOWNWIND REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT BEGINNING
   TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION.  RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
   SKIES E OF THE APPALACHIANS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
   THROUGH THE 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
   OF 65-70F...AIR MASS HAS BECOME NEARLY UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z RNK AND IAD SOUNDINGS/.
   
   CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE
   EXPECTED TO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ALONG WEAK LEE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON
   MORNING RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/20/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   36668010 38007875 38817796 39167744 39127683 38497660
   36167878 35997987 36418022

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...SRN WI...EXTREME
   NRN IL...SWRN LH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221808Z - 222015Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
   MOVING EWD 25-35 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  SEVERE POTENTIAL --
   WHICH HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL SO FAR...APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING WITH MORE DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HAIL EVENTS
   BECOMING PROBABLE.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW ACROSS ERN LM...COLD
   FRONT WWD TO BETWEEN MSN-MKE AND SWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA.
   COMBINED WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED SEWD ACROSS
   EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI TO VICINITY IND. TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN
   LOWER MI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL...WITH 50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...AND WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES FROM 300-800 J/KG ACROSS SRN LOWER
   MI.  AIRMASS BECOMES CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS LM TOWARD WI/IL BORDER...THOUGH
   ROUGHLY 50-100 J/KG CINH STILL NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME EVEN IN THAT
   AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS MORE
   UNSTABLE OVER LATTER AREA WITH MLCAPES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS
   2500-3000 J/KG ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 80S F.  SWLY WINDS IN BOUNDARY
   LAYER RESULT IN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND LIMITED
   CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT.  STILL...HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
   NEXT 2-3 HOURS FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS -- PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN LOWER
   MI WWD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
   
   42158313 41918583 41988839 42338934 42968920 43448804
   44128239 43868231 43498227 43008239 42938247 42828247
   42718250 42638250 42548265 42438275 42378288 42338301
   42288306 42178313

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...NERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808...
   
   VALID 222048Z - 222145Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS NRN PORTION WW -- MAINLY IN FORM
   OF LARGE HAIL OVER SERN MI AND MIX OF WIND AND HAIL FROM SWRN LOWER
   MI ACROSS LM.  POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT SWD WITH TIME ACROSS LOWER MI AS
   CONVECTION TO THE W PREFERENTIALLY MOVES INTO MORE UNSTABLE ELEVATED
   AIR MASS THAT HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED.  MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS AND RAOB CHARTS INDICATE WEAKEST SBCINH OVER AREAS
   ADJOINING LM ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IL...WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG
   MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED.  THEREFORE...CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD FROM LM
   ACROSS NRN IL. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS OVER IL WILL REMAIN STRONGER
   CAP...ALONG WITH VEERED WARM SECTOR FLOW AND RESULTANT WEAKNESS OF
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  OUTFLOW AIDED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SRN
   LM WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS CHI METRO AREA TO JUST S RFD.  EXPECT
   FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD 10-15 KT THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON
   OVER THIS AREA...WHILE REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER SWRN LOWER MI.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
   
   41458904 42608901 43058275 41918272

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0844 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL AND SRN LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808...
   
   VALID 230144Z - 230215Z
   
   VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808 EXPIRES AT 02Z AND
   WILL NOT BE REISSUED.  THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SWD
   THROUGH NRN PARTS OF IL-IN-OH. A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN LWR
   MI AND ARE LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONTAL SLOPE.
   STRONGEST TSTMS EXIST ACROSS NERN IN AND NWRN OH...CLOSER TO THE
   WARM SECTOR/LLJ.  THESE STORMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
   THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.  BUT...THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS
   SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE A NEW WW.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   41558874 41888871 42858257 41438286 40988311 40938633
   41128859

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231244Z - 231415Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A TORNADO
   WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
   COAST AS EARLY AS THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME.
   
   CENTER OF RITA CONTINUES ITS SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AND IS NOW
   ROUGHLY 180 MI SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA LA.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
   VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST BROAD BELT OF STRONGER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   ON ITS EASTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING CENTRAL
   GULF COASTAL AREAS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO
   POTENTIAL FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND WITH DAYBREAK...LOW-LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IN OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS.
   SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER MAY SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  HOWEVER...
   TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE 80F ACROSS SOUTHERN
   LOUISIANA...SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS INTO THE LAFAYETTE AREA...WHERE DEW
   POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NOT MUCH MORE
   HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
   
   29609454 30029364 30399185 30439069 30248964 29858925

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN MS/FAR SWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 809...
   
   VALID 231912Z - 232045Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP WWD FROM SERN INTO S-CNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   AS OF 1850Z...OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE
   BAND FROM S OF MCB TO NEAR GPT AND THEN EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE ERN
   GULF OF MEXICO AS FAR S AS 160 WSW SRQ.  ADDITIONAL...SHORTER
   CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM
   IBERVILLE TO JEFFERSON PARISH AND FROM VERMILLION TO LAFOURCHE
   PARISH.  FILTERED SUNSHINE E AND NE OF HURRICANE RITA/S PRIMARY CDO
   HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF FAR SERN LA...FAR SRN MS INTO SWRN AL. WHEN
   COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NOW APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG /REF
   18Z LIX SOUNDING/.
   
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WW AREA REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW
   AND MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE WITH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2.
   
   GIVEN ANTICIPATED NWWD MOVEMENT OF RITA...EXPECT THAT MINI SUPERCELL
   AND TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP WWD ACROSS WW AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL LA...GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF
   I-49.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   30409269 31308770 29678773 28739273

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL EWD ACROSS SRN IND/NRN KY INTO SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231936Z - 232100Z
   
   THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WINDS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MVN TO LUK TO PKB
   WITH SOME SWD MOVEMENT STILL NOTED FROM FAR SERN IND ACROSS SRN OH.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS INVOF THIS BOUNDARY
   OVER SRN IL EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO SRN OH.  HERE...TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70
   F HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE / MLCAPES OF
   1500-2000 J/KG / WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP.  CONTINUED HEATING AND
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN STORM AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   DESPITE PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING N OF
   REGION...AREA VWPS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  A FEW OF THE
   MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND
   HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING
   TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   37798947 38338953 39048859 39408502 39438354 39028278
   38458292 37868555 37458910

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN
GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 261533Z - 261700Z



ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL
PANHANDLE...AND SWRN GA.

14Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN AL SWWD TO
THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...WITH A SECOND TROUGH/CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM AROUND 45 S SEM /ALONG THE INITIAL BOUNDARY/ WNWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO SRN AR. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE ADVECTING A
HIGH DEWPOINT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S/ AIR MASS ACROSS
LA INTO SERN MS/SWRN AL. APPARENT MCV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR
WRN FL PANHANDLE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
THE FL PANHANDLE...AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE SSE. IN
ADDITION...THE MCV WILL LIKELY ENHANCE KINEMATICS/SRH VALUES ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SRN AL AND POTENTIALLY SWRN GA FOR AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN LOW LCLS WITHIN MOIST
AIR MASS.

FARTHER W...SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND W OF THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED
BOUNDARY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAPPED AIR MASS.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AREA VADS INDICATED A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 250-300 M2/S2.
THUS...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS WARM SECTOR REGION ACROSS FAR
SERN MS INTO SWRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281656Z - 281830Z
   
   ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND THEN SPREAD
   EWD INTO WRN IL.  NEW DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF
   THE CENTRAL MO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL
   MO COUNTIES OF PETTIS/SRN SALINE AND WRN COOPER.  THIS STORM APPEARS
   TO BE ELEVATED...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION
   PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.  NONETHELESS...SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
   SRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MO IS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS OVER OK INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO WHERE MUCAPE RANGES FROM
   1000-2000 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE SRN
   EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX...WHERE LLJ IMPINGES ON THIS ACTIVITY.
   EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL.
   IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEN STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO
   BE A THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   38129355 39569266 40409183 41159097 41208940 38538997
   38189113 38029277