Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Canelaw99
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#801 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:38 pm

He did also say that they're expecting it to come onshore as a major hurricane.
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#802 Postby Solaris » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:41 pm

latest NOAA plane check only found 110 kt in SE quadrant
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#803 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:42 pm

Florida_TSR wrote:Ed is smarter than most of us combined. If he says it is going to weaken then it most likely will.


i have no problem with him stating at the time of lanfall NHC projects a weaker cane than what we now have. But what he said is "Rita continues to weaken", when right behind him you can see the blow up of colder cloud tops in the sat image occuring now
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#804 Postby oneness » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:43 pm

Eye has cleared again.

Image
Image
Image
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#805 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:04 pm

Image
Yeah THE PSYCHO LBAR SENDS RITA TO NYC IN 120hrs. :roll:
Last edited by cjrciadt on Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#806 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:12 pm

Image
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#807 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:21 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Image


it's almost as if Rita sensed the attempt of dry air intrusion to her west and responded with some of the most intensive convection flareups she has gone thru during her lifecycle
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#808 Postby coolwater » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:24 pm

Cat 2 when i makes landfall, IMO.
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#809 Postby Raebie » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:29 pm

I don't know. She's looking mighty peeved for a Cat 2.

Image
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#810 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:30 pm

She looks the best she has all day...

and she looks mad. :eek:
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#811 Postby Scorpion » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:32 pm

There will be alot of crow for the people who called for a Cat 2/3 landfall.
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#812 Postby dwg71 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:35 pm

Scorpion wrote:There will be alot of crow for the people who called for a Cat 2/3 landfall.


Still 12+ hours away, that shot is 2 hours old. Eye has become very disorganized since then.
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#813 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:35 pm

Not liking this trend...
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#814 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:36 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:There will be alot of crow for the people who called for a Cat 2/3 landfall.


Still 12+ hours away, that shot is 2 hours old. Eye has become very disorganized since then.

19:45Z. that is 2:45 PM CDT, less than 1 hour ago.
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#815 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:37 pm

Image
From the TAOS the valuable models and the potenial storm surge.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=1&layer=country&layer=modtrack&layer=surge&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-107.043332+6.608233+-65.543332+48.051567&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL182005.map&savequery=true
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#816 Postby Raebie » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:40 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:There will be alot of crow for the people who called for a Cat 2/3 landfall.


Still 12+ hours away, that shot is 2 hours old. Eye has become very disorganized since then.

19:45Z. that is 2:45 PM CDT, less than 1 hour ago.


Whew. Thought my refresh button was broken.

:D
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#817 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:41 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:There will be alot of crow for the people who called for a Cat 2/3 landfall.


Still 12+ hours away, that shot is 2 hours old. Eye has become very disorganized since then.


Huh? We must be looking at two different satellites then.
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#818 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:44 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Image
Yeah THE PSYCHO LBAR SENDS RITA TO NYC IN 120hrs. :roll:


Wow. That is one UGLY model map. If Rita tries to pull an Allison on us.... :grr:
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#819 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:44 pm

From the 5pm discussion:

THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS
USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR
THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
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#820 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:45 pm

Katrina-like rebound prior to coast.

Structure/appearance excellent.

Cold tops.

Indication encountering trapping layering to north.

Next wobble N

Cameron should have devastating surge similar to Mississippi...
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