Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mtm4319]

I don't see how this is getting any stronger. All the satellites I've seen on TV show a drastically weakening storm.

930 MB (and now slowly falling) with winds going up?

Drastically weaker you say?

Maybe the satellites are old. Look on Fox News right now (or the IR loop for that matter). It's surely weaker now than it was 6 hours ago, but maybe it's stronger now than it was 15 minutes ago.

[Recurve]

Good news:

EYE OPEN NE THRU SE

Worried about all SW LA and upper TX coast. Surge going to build up unless she falls apart. And a slowing storm, possible stall after landfall, will bring rain flooding misery and damage.

Anyone in the path, do anything to get away from the water (and winds in unsecure structures).

[Viper252]

Its possible this storm could Bomb out right before landfall like Charley did.

[tallywx]

There's also isolated lightning strikes around close in to Rita's center(although not nearly the ring of fire eyewall lightning we saw when she first ventured from cat2-cat 5 territory in mere hours). Nevertheless, these lightning strokes suggest more efficient transfer of energy from Gulf into vertical development. I've noticed that since hurricanes usually contain such a lack of any lightning, lightning only occurs near the core of a storm when it is strengthening.

[cjrciadt]

Its possible this storm could Bomb out right before landfall like Charley did.

I doubt it, Charley passed over the Gulf'Stream over FL before landfall and was very compact so staying organized was not a large feat.

[gatorcane]

she may be bombing out right now...latest infrared sat frames show very cold cloud tops blowup up even on the W side of the eye

[oneness]

At the moment the eye has a funnel miles across rising out of it's top ... this storm is a wild bit of gear ... wow

[Morter Forker]

:eek: Oh my ... the adjusted T # is plumeting again

what does that mean. Sorry for the newb question.

[Viper252]

It could Bomb out like Charley did since its entering warm water near the coast.

[no advance]

Might carry a cat 5 surge with it. Good luck all.

[oneness]

Check this ... I had to rub my eyes when I saw this huge funnel protruding out of the eye.

[Javlin]

Hopefully she continues to die do not need another impact on the US mainland.I doubt she restrengths any further in any significant way.The thought is that the water is to shallow and she is creating upwelling on herself with her slow movement.

[Dave C]

It will probably keep pulsing between gulps of dry air. This has really been awesome the way the strength has gradually declined. Storm surge may still hit at cat. 4 heights though

[AlabamaDave]

I hope we don't forget the lessons of Ivan and Katrina. Just because a hurricane weakens before landfall doesn't mean it's storm surge drops as well. As with Katrina, I fear that Rita may bring a surge typical of a Cat-5 storm, even if her winds are down dramatically when she crosses the coastline.

[leonardo]

it's looking A LOT better compared to a few hours ago...

I think this thing could very well regain cat 4 intensity as long as it is able to keep on mixing the dry air out (actually, it would regain cat 4 intensity). But that won't be easy. but it's looking healthy at the time, especially the outflow.

another thing - there is one really nasty band getting ready to come onshore, from around pensacola to louisiana. there's already been plenty of tornado warnings and I'm sure we'll see quite a few more from this band.

[tallywx]

Scroll up a few posts, folks. Dvorak T-numbers have plummeted even more. Indicating 140-145 mph now.

[oneness]

Anyone thinking this storm is trending downward needs to see these very cold tops now spreading in the core.

[Dave C]

If this does strengthen as it moves onshore that could mix even stronger winds down from aloft, With all that dry air it's going to be tough to pulse up for more than short periods of time, hopefully not just as it landfalls.

[jpigott]

Ed Rappaport on Fox news now saying Rita will continue to weaken. You have to be kidding me, has he looked at the current Dorvak #s, the pressures leveling off, if not dropping some, cold cloud tops wrapping around the center again. At least mention the possibility that she could maintain her strength to the coast. Its irresponsible to say its weakening when anyone can clearly see that currently (that's not to say it won't later weaken) it is maintaining its strength if not getting better organized

[Florida_TSR]

Ed is smarter than most of us combined. If he says it is going to weaken then it most likely will.