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Solaris
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#741 Postby Solaris » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:22 pm

shear + dry air sucked in
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#742 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:26 pm

Definite weakening. Look at the eye... it went from being clearly identified and circular to not much of anything.
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#743 Postby oneness » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:28 pm

Looking at the next IR images and suddenly there's a very cold ridge of cloud tops in the northern eye wall ... right where this event occurred. Amazing stuff!

Resulted in...
Image
Last edited by oneness on Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#744 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:29 pm

Brent wrote:Definite weakening. Look at the eye... it went from being clearly identified and circular to not much of anything.
agreed and it jumped north of the forecast point too. Wonder if this storm may get closer to you Brent than you thought. :eek:
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#745 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:31 pm

could this be the beginning of her death as she begins to close her eye and get closer to land...
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#746 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:32 pm

may be trying to fight back in the last few images, cold cloud tops forming and tring to form and eye wall back and the eye is popping back out
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#747 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:33 pm

wow, really cool stuff...and this is exactly why i said that it coming close to NO would be far fetched but not impossible...so many variableswho knows what else may happen but at least its weakening
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#748 Postby oneness » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:36 pm

It looks like the vorticity kicked off a bunch of huge storms in the eye wall though ... lets see what happens …
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#749 Postby Solaris » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:39 pm

no real weakening according to latest noaa plane flyby...931 mb and 124 kts
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#750 Postby Solaris » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:40 pm

a spot of 'very' dry air was sucked in, just behind the eyewall
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#751 Postby Florida_TSR » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:41 pm

It looks like a CAT 3 is likely now - hopefully even lower. The storm is being hurt by cooler water. JB is all hype - strongest storm ever to hit Texas? It'll be strong but there have been stronger. JB is an idiot.
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#752 Postby BamaMan » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:42 pm

Florida_TSR wrote:It looks like a CAT 3 is likely now - hopefully even lower. The storm is being hurt by cooler water. JB is all hype - strongest storm ever to hit Texas? It'll be strong but there have been stronger. JB is an idiot.


And on top of that, she probably won't even hit Texas
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#753 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:43 pm

BamaMan wrote:
Florida_TSR wrote:It looks like a CAT 3 is likely now - hopefully even lower. The storm is being hurt by cooler water. JB is all hype - strongest storm ever to hit Texas? It'll be strong but there have been stronger. JB is an idiot.


And on top of that, she probably won't even hit Texas


LOL
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#754 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:44 pm

Latest GFDL, slightly back West.
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#755 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:46 pm

it aint hitting Houston anymore man...

Houston will be on the west side and much of Texas is plagued with extremely dry air that is already eroding the western side of the storm...
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#756 Postby oneness » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:51 pm

Big storms are healing over where it happened ... and we all know what rapid convective uplift means, so don't get too exceited,

Image


At least the T # stayed up.
Image
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#757 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:53 pm

oneness wrote:Big storms are healing over where it happened ... and we all know what rapid convective uplift means, so don't get too exceited,

Image


At least the T # stayed up.
Image


I don't know what rapid convective means except that it might strengthen. Could you explain it to me?
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#758 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:54 pm

boca_chris wrote:it aint hitting Houston anymore man....


I never said that, but the slightest jog back west makes a hellava difference when you live 30 miles from Galveston, Island and less than 15 miles from Galveston BAY. So YES, I am Concerned about every wobble and model shift.
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#759 Postby oneness » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:02 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:I don't know what rapid convective means except that it might strengthen. Could you explain it to me?



It creates lower pressures under where the air has risen to high altitude, thus lowering pressures under the storms, and in an eye-wall … that still translates to a strong storm, regardless of this transient disruption of a part of the core (if it can reorganise itself quickly).
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#760 Postby Florida_TSR » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:04 pm

Down to a CAT 3 now with 125 MPH winds. It should weaken further until landfall. Good news.
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