NHC Dir. Max Mayfield warns Congress........

[dixiebreeze]

about continuing tropical activity and gets high praise from Congress:

Mayfield to Congress: Expect More Hurricanes

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Expect more hurricanes large and small in the next 10 to 20 years, the director of the federal National Hurricane
Center said Tuesday.

Max Mayfield told a congressional panel that he believes the Atlantic Ocean is in a cycle of increased hurricane activity that parallels an increase that started in the 1940s and ended in the 1960s.

The ensuing lull lasted until 1995, then "it's like somebody threw a switch," Mayfield said. The number and power of hurricanes increased dramatically.

Under questioning by members of the Senate Commerce subcommittee on disaster prevention and prediction, he shrugged off the notion that global warming played a role, saying instead it was a natural cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that fluctuates every 25 to 40 years.

Mayfield predicted several more named tropical storms this year. The latest, Hurricane Rita, is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November. Since record-keeping started in 1851, the record is 21 tropical storms, in 1933.

Mayfield also listed a number of cities and regions in addition to New Orleans he believes are "especially vulnerable" to damage from a major hurricane: Houston and Galveston, Texas; Tampa; southern Florida and the Florida Keys; New York City and Long Island; and New England.

"Katrina will not be the last major hurricane to hit a vulnerable area," he said.

The center's predictions on Katrina's movements were more accurate than usual, but the storm grew more intense more quickly than expected as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico, he said.
Three days before it made landfall on Aug. 29, computer models predicted it would hit near New Orleans.

Asked to assess the nation's ability to track hurricanes, one expert before the panel said forecasters have grown better at predicting the path of a storm over a few days but lag in their
ability to gauge its intensity, rainfall distribution and surge in water levels.

Better sensors, computers and computer models of hurricane behavior can lead to improved forecasts, said Keith Blackwell of the Coast Weather Research Center at the University of South Alabama.

Senators praised the National Hurricane Center's accurate prediction of Katrina's track, calling it one of the few things the government has done correctly in regards to the storm.

"The people that did get out from the storm owe their lives to you and your people," said Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska.

[MetroMike]

Hopefully this message comes through loud and clear to members of congress. Especially those in non-hurricane states, that funding should be increased to NOAA. Its a matter of life and death.

[dixiebreeze]

Hopefully this message comes through loud and clear to members of congress. Especially those in non-hurricane states, that funding should be increased to NOAA. Its a matter of life and death.

I wholeheartedly agree. One of the few things the federal gov. is constitutionally obligated to do is protect its citizens and the NHC is one of few worthwhile entities trying to do that.

[ObsessedMiami]

Good job Max, but then, what can you expect out of body of people who require the head of the Hurricane Center to come and testify a few days before a killer storm bears down on the U.S.? I guess THEIR schedules were "too hectic"

[Stephanie]

Senators praised the National Hurricane Center's accurate prediction of Katrina's track, calling it one of the few things the government has done correctly in regards to the storm.

"The people that did get out from the storm owe their lives to you and your people," said Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska.

Hopefully they also remember this when Santorum's bill comes up.

[Hurricaneman]

I heard on wbz 4 news that New England is far from ready to respond to a disaster

[kevin]

Senators praised the National Hurricane Center's accurate prediction of Katrina's track, calling it one of the few things the government has done correctly in regards to the storm.

"The people that did get out from the storm owe their lives to you and your people," said Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska.

Hopefully they also remember this when Santorum's bill comes up.

If they are worth anything they'll pump more money into NOAA instead of trying to give accuweather better grounds for competition.

[Canelaw99]

Good job Max, but then, what can you expect out of body of people who require the head of the Hurricane Center to come and testify a few days before a killer storm bears down on the U.S.? I guess THEIR schedules were "too hectic"

I actually saw this on the news yesterday and they had given Max the option of postponing his testimony, but he felt it was important to get the info. out now. They didn't make him fly to D.C., rather, he gave his testimony via video/teleconference and he kept getting interrupted during it also. I commend him for wanting to testify and let them know what happened, etc. even with Rita weighing heavily on him. I, for one, would love to donate money to a "Max Vacation After the Season" fund.

[Vandora]

I, for one, would love to donate money to a "Max Vacation After the Season" fund.

I'd donate to that!

[ProphetCat]

Good job Max, but then, what can you expect out of body of people who require the head of the Hurricane Center to come and testify a few days before a killer storm bears down on the U.S.? I guess THEIR schedules were "too hectic"

I actually saw this on the news yesterday and they had given Max the option of postponing his testimony, but he felt it was important to get the info. out now. They didn't make him fly to D.C., rather, he gave his testimony via video/teleconference and he kept getting interrupted during it also. I commend him for wanting to testify and let them know what happened, etc. even with Rita weighing heavily on him. I, for one, would love to donate money to a "Max Vacation After the Season" fund.

Better to strike while the iron is hot. This is the foremost thing on everyone's mind right now between Katrina and Rita. He might not get an audience with Congress after the season is over because their attention will have turned to next year's elections.

[senorpepr]

"The Senate Commerce Committee held hearings this afternoon on Katrina.
The House Science Committee will be holding hearing Wednesday morning (9/21). Sen. Bill Nelson (Florida) asked Max Mayfield whether it was true that Secretary Chertoff (the head of homeland security) & Department of Homeland Security (DHS) used Accuweather for hurricane forecasts of Katrina and he confirmed it.

The National Infrastructure Command Center in DHS prepared an "overnight summary" for Secretary Chertoff on Katrina that was based on Accuweather hurricane predictions rather than hurricane forecast information from the National Hurricane Center. This dates from when former PA. Governor Ridge was Secretary of homeland security.

What's even most shocking is that the "NOAA Desk" in the DHS Ops Center, staffed by a primary & two backup NWS meteorologists, prepared forecasts for Secretary Chertoff based on the National Hurricane Center; however, it is unsure that this ever made it to the Secretary. To make matters worse & even more confusing, FEMA relies solely on NWS products, which includes those issued by the National Hurricane Center. So FEMA (which only uses NWS) and the DHS (which uses Accuweather) are not even looking at the same forecasts! The NWS NHC's track for Katrina was significantly different & more accurate than Accuweather's. Just recently, Accuweather's track for Ophelia brought it across Florida & into the Gulf. In both cases, Accuweather's forecast was dead wrong.

The end result is that the head of homeland security & DHS & FEMA received conflicting forecasts.

Sen. Bill Nelson also asked Max Mayfield about consolidation and downsizing of WFOs and Max Mayfield unequivocally said it was a very bad idea, and that he hopes that it doesn't happen and that the local WFOs are an essential part of NWS. Senator Nelson also trashed Accuweather and, without naming Santorum, blasted those who would try to take NWS off the air and off the internet to help commercial interests."

[Downdraft]

I find it almost criminal that Accuweather would call any product of the National Hurricane Center "virtually worthless" at a time when millions of people are listening to warnings and information issued by the ONLY credible source of hurricane information. If Congress is big on investigating anything or anyone they should take a good look at people whose sole motive is profit at a time of national emergency. The conduct of this private company needs to be investigated by people who are not in their hip pockets. What little respect I had for them evaporated with the shot they took at the NHC. Mayfield is correct that it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better and Senator Nelson is correct that the NHC saves lives and has done more than a credible job.

[Windsong]

I typed http://www.nationalhurricanecenter.org in my browser and I got Accuweather.com. Hummmmmmm...

[dixiebreeze]

I typed http://www.nationalhurricanecenter.org in my browser and I got Accuweather.com. Hummmmmmm...

Windsong, that's terrible! Are you talking about Google? That search engine often seems to have its priorities askew.

[Windsong]

Hi Dixie,

OOPS ... I put http://www.nationalweatherservice.org directly into the address bar and Accuweather came up.

I was not at my computer and was trying to get hurricane info. Sorry about the blooper.

When I was a kid, the National Weather Service was the be-all, end-all authority on weather. Now evidently, Accuweather is..NOT!

Sorry again. Seriously sleep deprived!
Windsong