Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

stormie_skies · #721 Postby **stormie_skies** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:22 am

I see the north wobble, but its following a wobble west - looks to me like the northward motion has brought her just up to her next forecast point. I wouldn't call a direction change after just two frames ... if it continues, though, they might have to adjust the track east again....

#722 Postby **curtadams** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:22 am

Rita's taking in dry air and it's weakening her western and southern walls. That's going to drive her northwards since convection will be stronger on her right side and that will literally suck her north.

oneness · #723 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:30 am

Yes, and something pretty big just happened in the eye, at the same time. Looking at these images of the core I'm guessing a very large vortex has formed along the north wall. Have a close look at the small circle in the northern eye wall margin on IR, then the result at the top on the visual. Whatever left that circular mark on IR made the whole eye jump north! :eek:

The center of rotation just moved toward the lowest pressure point. Must have been a VERY low pressure under the vortex evacuation. It also ripped that part of the wall apart.

... my 2 cents

oneness · #724 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:51 am

Check it out, the DEVORAK T# shot upwards at the same time!

superfly · #725 Postby **superfly** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:53 am

The SW eyewall looks WIDE OPEN on radar.

oneness · #726 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:55 am

Yeah, looks like the scar from it is rotating around the eye.

oneness · #727 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:06 pm

Geeze ... whatever that was it made a mess of the core symmetry on IR.

After Event

Website · #728 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:10 pm

It looks terrible now.

HurricaneGirl · #729 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:11 pm

Looks like the eyewall is collapsing.

txwatcher91 · #730 Postby **txwatcher91** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:13 pm

Is Rita still going through an ERC or is she collapsing?

tallywx · #731 Postby **tallywx** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:14 pm

Looks as if the entire storm is collapsing. Hurricane Lili take II.

Cat 2 at landfall with 950 mb landfalling pressure, IN MY OPINION (not to be taken as official forecast, legal disclaimer, etc.).

Landfall point will experience conditions similar to Hutchinson Island or Vero Beach FL during Frances/Jeanne.

AlabamaDave · #732 Postby **AlabamaDave** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:15 pm

Let's hope this thing falls apart rapidly while approaching the coast. We got our show out in the Gulf, and now it's time to see this thing collapse.

HurricaneGirl · #733 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:15 pm

Collapsing Big Time.

Website · #734 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:17 pm

tallywx wrote:Looks as if the entire storm is collapsing. Hurricane Lili take II.

That was my first thought.

Still... the surge is going to be terrible with this.

tallywx · #735 Postby **tallywx** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:17 pm

AlabamaDave wrote:Let's hope this thing falls apart rapidly while approaching the coast. We got our show out in the Gulf, and now it's time to see this thing collapse.

Agreed. When Rita wobbled and winked north along 90 degrees west last night, she glanced at the destruction caused by Katrina and had a change in heart.

If she landfalls as a weak storm, she'll have made the perfect system to track. One that weaved around the Keys without causing major harm, bombed to historical levels over the open Gulf and gave us all some racing heartbeats, but then spared the shore of massive destruction. Is there a better tale to weave than that?

Unfortunately, reality says we're still going to have a surge issue with this one.

oneness · #736 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:18 pm

Think it was a major vortex beside the northern eyewall.

Before Event

During Event

After Event

AZS · #737 Postby **AZS** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:19 pm

tallywx wrote:
AlabamaDave wrote:If she landfalls as a weak storm, she'll have made the perfect system to track. One that weaved around the Keys without causing major harm, bombed to historical levels over the open Gulf and gave us all some racing heartbeats, but then spared the shore of massive destruction. Is there a better tale to weave than that?
one.

A CAT 3 at landfall with massive surge is a weak storm ?? :roll:

oneness · #738 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:20 pm

Still going to have a major hurricane to.

tallywx · #739 Postby **tallywx** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:21 pm

AZS wrote:
tallywx wrote:
AlabamaDave wrote:If she landfalls as a weak storm, she'll have made the perfect system to track. One that weaved around the Keys without causing major harm, bombed to historical levels over the open Gulf and gave us all some racing heartbeats, but then spared the shore of massive destruction. Is there a better tale to weave than that?
one.

A CAT 3 at landfall with massive surge is a weak storm ??

Note how I said, "if she landfalls as a weak storm." IF!!! and by definition, a weak storm does not carry a massive surge, because if it did, it's not weak.

My statement was based on a conditional ideal, probably not what will occur.

txwatcher91 · #740 Postby **txwatcher91** » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:21 pm

oneness wrote:Think it was a major vortex beside the northern eyewall.

Before Event

During Event

After Event

So, strengthening or weakening?

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