Invest 98,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[AtlanticWind]

Check out Nrl

[feederband]

link

[oceancounty]

whats the link for nrl?

[fwbbreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

fwbbreeze

[gatorcane]

here we go (again)

[cjrciadt]

That was head-snapping quick, already 1008mb pressure hoping a recurve.

[AtlanticWind]

TWO says a tropical or subtropical cyclone may be forming

[tracyswfla]

Season is cancelled...

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME EITHER A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY OR
SATURDAY. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED.

[SkeetoBite]

[Hurricaneman]

This needs to be watched carefully, because im not so sure this is gonna be a fish, it all depends on the ridge

[kmanWX]

11:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME EITHER A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY OR
SATURDAY. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED.

Any idea what the models are saying about this?

[Hurricaneman]

11:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME EITHER A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY OR
SATURDAY. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED.

Any idea what the models are saying about this?

A fish storm

[HURAKAN]

A surface 1003 mb low pressure center has formed 27n63w.
Scattered moderate showers to isolated strong thunderstorms
are found from 22n to 30n between 60w and 68w. Other scattered
moderate showers to isolated strong thunderstorms continue from
20n to 30n between 50w and 60w...and southwestward into the
eastern Caribbean Sea north of 15n between 60w and 64w.

Deepening is occuring, it will be Stan in the first advisory most likely.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050924 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050924 1200 050925 0000 050925 1200 050926 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 61.3W 31.9N 59.4W 33.8N 56.7W 35.4N 53.5W
BAMM 29.5N 61.3W 31.3N 59.5W 32.6N 57.7W 33.3N 55.9W
A98E 29.5N 61.3W 31.6N 58.5W 33.2N 55.9W 36.0N 54.1W
LBAR 29.5N 61.3W 31.3N 59.4W 33.3N 57.5W 34.8N 55.3W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050926 1200 050927 1200 050928 1200 050929 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.7N 50.8W 39.7N 45.2W 40.8N 36.8W 40.6N 31.4W
BAMM 33.8N 55.1W 35.8N 54.7W 40.4N 49.4W 42.4N 39.7W
A98E 37.4N 52.1W 39.6N 47.1W 42.0N 38.1W 42.9N 27.2W
LBAR 36.5N 52.5W 40.2N 45.4W 42.2N 35.7W 38.4N 32.2W
SHIP 48KTS 49KTS 45KTS 33KTS
DSHP 48KTS 49KTS 45KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 61.3W DIRCUR = 60DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 63.9W DIRM12 = 145DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 30.3N LONM24 = 62.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Model Guidance for possible Sub or tropical system.

[HURAKAN]

Everything looks to be extratropical with this system.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 241504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RITA...LOCATED NEAR JASPER TEXAS.

A BROAD AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INCLUDING THE REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE...IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO BECOME EITHER A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

2:05 PM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N62W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. PHILIPPE. A FEW OTHER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE MOVING AROUND THE AREA FROM
27N TO 35N BETWEEN 55W AND 69W. THIS SYSTEM IS PART OF A BIGGER
DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
35N65W TO 29N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N76W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM JUST OFF
THE SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA COAST TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO 23N60W TO
28N56W TO 30N56W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE
MIDDLE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...ALSO ARE
FOUND FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.


Not much tropical development to talk about.

[Buck]

Looks like we might have another Invest soon..?

[WeatherEmperor]

that wave in the atlantic looks pretty good. give it another day or so and an invest could pop up for it.

<RICKY>