Area of Low Pressure south of Bermuda showing potential...

[gatorcane]

The GFS develops a weak system and pushes it WSW for a couple of days and then weakens it and moves it north out to sea.

[arkess7]

yea we floridans really need a break........god i thought last year was some kind of freak thing with the hurricanes.....but this year....oh my god... ....and ive heard we are in a 30 year cycle now where we are gona keep getting some major canes..

[msbee]

Update:

TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Hurricanehink]

Potential... Is Stan there?

[gatorcane]

bump

[Duffy]

yes possibly could be Stan

[gatorcane]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 231425
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE LEFTWARD BEND IN TRACK CONTINUES...AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW AROUND 290/16...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-AVERAGE SPEED IS EVEN
FASTER. PHILIPPE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...PHILIPPE NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. SINCE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH IS BECOMING
THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
PHILIPPE TO BECOME ABSORBED AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE
EVEN SOONER.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA. EVEN IF PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ISLAND AS A RESULT
OF THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 31.1N 63.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 31.5N 66.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED

$$

that is possible STAN they are referring to

[Ivanhater]

haaa philippe absorbed the invest that was to be stan , now another system will absorb philippe and might be stan, funny how that works

[Steve H.]

Again, Philippe is getting sucked into the broader system to the south. Thsi system will win out and develop further to the south. Where it ends up is still the big question, but Canadien high should be building into the NE southward and this could move this developing feature SW/west. Currently it seems stationary.

[Hurricaneman]

It very well could, it depends on how the ridge builds

[gatorcane]

GFS takes it WSW just E of the central Bahamas

[Hurricaneman]

Right now it looks like its at least becoming sub-tropical

[HURAKAN]

Right now it has a mighty low pressure system, winds are reported to be near 35 mph, thereafter, if could go as a sub- or tropical storm in the first advisory in the next 24 hours as the cloud pattern becomes better organized.

[Hurricaneman]

Where do you think this is going to go

[gatorcane]

it will meander for about 1-2 days then drift WSW followed by a W movement....then eventually curve N and NE out to sea before reaching the east coast of the U.S.

[HURAKAN]

Where do you think this is going to go

[HURAKAN]

A surface 1003 mb low pressure center has formed 27n63w.
Scattered moderate showers to isolated strong thunderstorms
are found from 22n to 30n between 60w and 68w. Other scattered
moderate showers to isolated strong thunderstorms continue from
20n to 30n between 50w and 60w...and southwestward into the
eastern Caribbean Sea north of 15n between 60w and 64w.

Deepening is occurring, most likely it will be Stan in the first advisory.

[jaxfladude]

"[Bleep] dude this hurricane season is
[Bleep] up!"

[arkess7]

FOR REAL ....HA HA