Area of Low Pressure south of Bermuda showing potential...

[Hyperstorm]

The area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Bermuda is showing signs of a system that will have to be monitored closely.

The system is currently has a broad area of LLC near 25N, 64W. Right now, it is only an extratropical low pressure center, but showing signs of trying to become more tropical over the next couple of days. The system is slowly becoming separated from the frontal structure that it developed from. Based on past systems such as this one (Michael, Florence 2000, etc.), it appears that this system is almost a "go". In fact, convection is trying to pop up in a scattered manner near the main center right now.

Upper Level conditions are currently favorable for transition to occur and SSTs are extremely warm. It is my thinking that this system has potential to acquire tropical characteristics over the next 2-3 days.

What a long season...

[huricanwatcher]

we will look at that one after another 24-48 hours..... right at present....... aint going there

[Duffy]

yeah i heard about that, Joe Bastardi has been talking about this System for days..that it would form off the "tail" if you will....of Phillipe

[FlSteel]

Wondering what direction this one will head

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RITA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ON
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA...AND A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB


Here we go again.

[Duffy]

yep, possibly Stan in the making

[HURAKAN]

Future movement?

[Brent]

[Ivanhater]

gfs shows it and hangs it around a while

[hurricanedude]

NHC still talking about it..convection a bit more concentrated..Invest soon I think,,,soon followed by a TD

[Duffy]

as i said, looks like Stan in the making..next thing to watch after Rita
we've had a remarkable pattern this year it seems
it seems like at almost the precise time a storm is making or about to make landfall, something new forms...think about it...that's how its been this year and the pattern seems to be continuing with this possibly "Stan" storm

[no advance]

What about the tw at 50 w. ?

[arkess7]

yea really ..WHAT A LONG SEASON!!...man are we gona make it to the greek alphabet? make another historic event geez

[Steve H.]

The area of convection is slowlllllly inching west. Will the canadien high build down the eastern seaboard and over it early next week, or will it head NE?? That's the question.

[gatorcane]

Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2005 8:38 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The area of convection is slowlllllly inching west. Will the canadien high build down the eastern seaboard and over it early next week, or will it head NE?? That's the question

I heard it was supposed to build over the eastern seaboard and thus cause this possible new invest to head west.

[JPmia]

Future movement?

Looks like UKMET moves whatever it is across South/Central Florida.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[gatorcane]

Looks like UKMET moves whatever it is across South/Central Florida.

It's early of course but can FL get a break?

[no advance]

Not much energy left after Rita. More likely to move north with the gulf stream.

[gatorcane]

Not much energy left after Rita. More likely to move north with the gulf stream

The gulfstream is an ocean current that has nothing to do with where it will move. As far as energy, there is plenty of it still. The gulfstream is a current so any upwelling is long gone by now.

[cjrciadt]

Looks like UKMET moves whatever it is across South/Central Florida.

It's early of course but can FL get a break?