Rita thinking...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Rita thinking...

I think she is going through a EWRC. In which should be completed durning the next 12 hours. I think then because she will be entering a warm eddie...Strengthing will be likely. With the outflow very good right now I'm going to say holding to around 150 to 155 mph.

Then the last 12 hours when its being picked up the trough/weakness will do what it did to Katrina. Kicking the feet from right under the sotrm. Remember LILI,Opal,Dennis,Ivan they all had a trough/weakness pick them up. In which induced dry air/shear. I expect this will make landfall with 110 mph winds. Maybe less then that. Watch how tihs plays out...It very likely to happen. In history proves it. In I'm putting my money in history baby!!!




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[Brent]

Where have you been? She's been going through an ERC all day. It's about over...

[txwatcher91]

Yes, the ERC is about over, and I can see the new larger eye on infrared and Dvorak.

[Steve H.]

Does look like she's paused and thinking....finger nail between her teeth.....should I go northwest or west

[gatorcane]

Max Mayfield was just on one of the big stations and he said that he expects strengthening tonight as Rita goes over a warm deep eddy with little shear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Like I said expect the EWRC to complete durning the next 12 hours. Fellowed by some strengthing. But as we saw with Katrina...This thing will not be a monster at landfall. The factors are against it. A Andrew,Camille which is strengthing as its moving in is another story. Rita will likely be weaker then Katrina. Because it will have more time over unfavable trough/shortwave enviroment.

[Brent]

Katrina, a Category 4, wasn't a monster???

[Droop12]

Good luck with the forecast Matt but IMO I dont see that type of weakening occuring. If Im not mistaken, there isnt a trough or weakness picking up or inducing a more northward motion, its the ridge simply moving off to the east allowing the storm to turn the corner if you will. Theres alot of talk about this storm stalling in Texas after landfall, and theres no way thats happening if a trough picks the storm up. But this is why we all have our own opinions. My best guess would be landfall very near Galveston, maybe a bit north of there as a Cat 4 with 135-145mph winds...But a fairly massive Cat 5 surge.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Katrina got its western quad kicked in. In went from 175 mph to 140 mph with in 18 hours. In 20 mph decrease with in the last 3 to 6 hours before landfall.

[cjrciadt]

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/ Keep refreshing the image to see her improvement.

[Ixolib]

Like I said expect the EWRC to complete durning the next 12 hours. Fellowed by some strengthing. But as we saw with Katrina...This thing will not be a monster at landfall. The factors are against it. A Andrew,Camille which is strengthing as its moving in is another story. Rita will likely be weaker then Katrina. Because it will have more time over unfavable trough/shortwave enviroment.

Depends on your viewpoint of what creates a monster. As with Ivan and Katrina, the surge that is being created now and in the recent past is what will write the history of Rita. As has been proven, the surge built up when these storms are CAT 5's doesn't just flatten out as they are downgraded - especially this close to landfall. Rita will be a monster, I believe, based on the surge she's bringing with her...

[stormspotter]

Does look like she's paused and thinking....finger nail between her teeth.....should I go northwest or west

mmmm Possible Stall?

[jkt21787]

Katrina got its western quad kicked in. In went from 175 mph to 140 mph with in 18 hours. In 20 mph decrease with in the last 3 to 6 hours before landfall.

So you are saying it wasn't a monster as Brent asked?

I guess all of that devastation in New Orleans and the MS Coast was either exaggerated by the media or all in my imagination.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

God yes it was still a monster. But weather wise it weaken/got its western quad kicked in. As for Rita it is going to have more then enough time, for that surge/waves to expand and then weaken. NOT Saying it will not be bad.

[ericinmia]

Katrina, a Category 4, wasn't a monster???

Not to start anything... but brent go look into what the actuall recorded winds on the ground at any station were with katrina. Upon landfall she was much weaker, and the winds aloft like in IVAN didn't make it to the surface.
-Eric

[stormspotter]

I believe she has stalled!

[jrod]

Rita thinking...



Then the last 12 hours when its being picked up the trough/weakness will do what it did to Katrina. Kicking the feet from right under the sotrm. Remember LILI,Opal,Dennis,Ivan they all had a trough/weakness pick them up. In which induced dry air/shear. I expect this will make landfall with 110 mph winds. Maybe less then that. Watch how tihs plays out...It very likely to happen. In history proves it. In I'm putting my money in history baby!!!

Not always. Charley got picked up by a trough and strengthened. I expect Rita to be at laest 135mph when it makes landfall and probaly stronger. I do think it will be a cat 5 again, perhaps briefly before making landfall. The surge will still be huge, all the giant surf being kicked up and was kicked up when Rita was a cat 5 will do nothing but help the surge. Isabel is an example, when she made landfall as a weak cat 3/strong cat 2, a lot of the high surf 'followed' it to landfall and 3 inlets were carved out in the Outer Banks.

This storm will make landfall as a monster.

[cajunwxman]

There was NOT many surface reporting station left after Katrina made landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If they bomb with the enviromen(Charley). But Rita has a perfect enviroment about to turn into a slightly less favable one. In which can be huge.

[Ixolib]

Katrina, a Category 4, wasn't a monster???

Not to start anything... but brent go look into what the actuall recorded winds on the ground at any station were with katrina. Upon landfall she was much weaker, and the winds aloft like in IVAN didn't make it to the surface.
-Eric

It wasn't Katrina's straight-line winds that did the damage. The primary cause was the surge, followed at a distant second by - IMO - the numerous small tornadoes; or as we call 'em in here, mini-vortices. Heck, if it wasn't for the tornadoes and surge, we'd be livin' large about right now!!