Now she is a Louisiana Storm

[x-y-no]

history tells us that if you are more than 50 miles west of the
eye of the major hurricane... you are an afterthought due to the
catastrophic damage done to the east of the eye...

it's looking more and more like a LA storm... JMHO...

But my point is the cone of uncertainty still extends a good 150 mile west of Galveston. So your blithe assurance is unwarranted, IMHO.

Yes, if the center makes landfall in LA, then Galveston/Houston will avoid serious damage. And yes, this is looking more likely as time goes by. But it is absolutely not something one can confidently count on as of yet.

[BamaMan]

Jax, let me tell you, I don't want Rita to go to Texas, and I'm positive nobody else wants Rita to go to Texas either. But Texas is still in the cone of uncertainty; therefore, Texas could still get hit by Rita.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why you keep saying that Texas is out of the woods, because they are not. The risk in Texas MAY be lowering, and yes the risk in Louisiana is rising. However, it is still VERY unwise to say that Texas will not get hit at all.

Texas will not be out of the woods unless/until either:

1. Rita makes a right to the north-northwest and then north RIGHT NOW (not likely),
2. Rita closes in on Louisiana (which may happen, but it may not either, we still don't know), and/or

3. Rita has dissipated.

Have I made myself clear now? Because I don't want to argue anymore, but at this time, it is preposterous to even think that Texas will definitely not get hit by Rita.

-Andrew92

That statement is highly incorrect. A right turn NOW not likely?
Ivan was 75 miles or less offshore from coming into Mobile Bay, and made a right turn over Gulf Shores causing Pensacola to get the brunt of the storm.

[NastyCat4]

nah......North Texas coast. Not Louisiana.

[jax]

Jax, let me tell you, I don't want Rita to go to Texas, and I'm positive nobody else wants Rita to go to Texas either. But Texas is still in the cone of uncertainty; therefore, Texas could still get hit by Rita.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why you keep saying that Texas is out of the woods, because they are not. The risk in Texas MAY be lowering, and yes the risk in Louisiana is rising. However, it is still VERY unwise to say that Texas will not get hit at all.

Texas will not be out of the woods unless/until either:

1. Rita makes a right to the north-northwest and then north RIGHT NOW (not likely),

2. Rita closes in on Louisiana (which may happen, but it may not either, we still don't know), and/or

3. Rita has dissipated.

Have I made myself clear now? Because I don't want to argue anymore, but at this time, it is preposterous to even think that Texas will definitely not get hit by Rita.

-Andrew92

as i posted earlier in this thread...
Yes... Galvaston and Houston will have some trees down. some homes
will be destroyed... but it won't be wide spread and catastrophic...
unless you go to LA... Lake Charles and the places south and east.

and again...
when i say out of the woods... i'm talking about
catasatrophic damage... i don't see that happening... Sure, There
will be some downed trees, power outages, stuff like that...
But nothing like the effect of being on the estern side of one of
these monsters...

JMHO....

[Recurve]

Shift in wording in 5 p.m. discussion:

ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

"Approaching the southwest Louisiana coast" mentioned first -- not that they're sending code...but don't doubt that this storm is hitting SW Louisiana, even could be a direct hit on Cameron or Lake Charles. Everyone from Iowa to Lafayette to Houma needs to prepare. There's plenty of time to get out if you are south of I-10 and anywhere west of Morgan City, and time to hunker down if you are north or east.

Safe thoughts to everyone in the path.

[tallywx]

So apparently Beaumont/Port Arthur are not "Texas" enough for you? You're calling 400,000 people who most likely will get smacked by the NE eyewall an afterthought. Great.

[Andrew92]

Shift in wording in 5 p.m. discussion:

ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

"Approaching the southwest Louisiana coast" mentioned first -- not that they're sending code...but don't doubt that this storm is hitting SW Louisiana, even could be a direct hit on Cameron or Lake Charles. Everyone from Iowa to Lafayette to Houma needs to prepare. There's plenty of time to get out if you are south of I-10 and anywhere west of Morgan City, and time to hunker down if you are north or east.

Safe thoughts to everyone in the path.

In my posts, I'm not saying that Louisiana will not get hit. Louisiana could most certainly could take the eye from Rita. However, Texas could still get hit, and I just don't understand how anyone can think that Galveston is safe when they are still in the cone.

And Jax, contrary to your belief, if the strongest winds hit Galveston and Houston, and it's at least a C3 or above, there will likely be devastation, potentially catastrophic damage if it's a C4.

-Andrew92

[huricanwatcher]

So apparently Beaumont/Port Arthur are not "Texas" enough for you? You're calling 200,000 people who most likely will get smacked by the NE eyewall an afterthought. Great.

Im sorry - but how do you figure TX will be in the NE eyewall with the storm bearing more east then what was projected? .. NE eyewall =LA

[gpickett00]

Jax, let me tell you, I don't want Rita to go to Texas, and I'm positive nobody else wants Rita to go to Texas either. But Texas is still in the cone of uncertainty; therefore, Texas could still get hit by Rita.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why you keep saying that Texas is out of the woods, because they are not. The risk in Texas MAY be lowering, and yes the risk in Louisiana is rising. However, it is still VERY unwise to say that Texas will not get hit at all.

Texas will not be out of the woods unless/until either:

1. Rita makes a right to the north-northwest and then north RIGHT NOW (not likely),

2. Rita closes in on Louisiana (which may happen, but it may not either, we still don't know), and/or

3. Rita has dissipated.

Have I made myself clear now? Because I don't want to argue anymore, but at this time, it is preposterous to even think that Texas will definitely not get hit by Rita.

-Andrew92

Andrew,
Jax said that he thinks that texas would be spared of the catastrophic damage. If the eye goes over the TX/LA boarder, the catastropic damage would be in LA not TX!!! He said that he thinks texas is out of the Catastrophic damage.

[tallywx]

Because I'm buying the 5 p.m. NHC track exactly. Last two recon. plots average a due WNW heading (+4 minutes north, -9 minutes west). That extrapolates to Galveston. Even if she bends NW of current track, that would follow NHC pretty well. Notice how NOT A SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL takes the eye into Louisiana. TX/LA border at best, which is the 400,000 aforementioned people.


That's how.

[jopatura]

People are looking at the yellow line too much. What I want to know is, what is the weather precedence for the move to the left? I'm not convinced this will be SW LA until someone tells me why. And not just, "oh oh oh, it's moving NORTH!!!" Is there any reason behind this?

My OPINION is that they are trying to prevent mob rule in Houston and to get people in SW LA out because this is getting so big. No matter where it hits, it's going to be bad for the whole area, TX and LA.

[Andrew92]

Jax, let me tell you, I don't want Rita to go to Texas, and I'm positive nobody else wants Rita to go to Texas either. But Texas is still in the cone of uncertainty; therefore, Texas could still get hit by Rita.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why you keep saying that Texas is out of the woods, because they are not. The risk in Texas MAY be lowering, and yes the risk in Louisiana is rising. However, it is still VERY unwise to say that Texas will not get hit at all.

Texas will not be out of the woods unless/until either:

1. Rita makes a right to the north-northwest and then north RIGHT NOW (not likely),

2. Rita closes in on Louisiana (which may happen, but it may not either, we still don't know), and/or

3. Rita has dissipated.

Have I made myself clear now? Because I don't want to argue anymore, but at this time, it is preposterous to even think that Texas will definitely not get hit by Rita.

-Andrew92

Andrew,
Jax said that he thinks that texas would be spared of the catastrophic damage. If the eye goes over the TX/LA boarder, the catastropic damage would be in LA not TX!!! He said that he thinks texas is out of the Catastrophic damage.

I have not overlooked that, and I still think that Texas could take catastrophic damage. Why? Because the Texas coast is still in the cone. And as long as the Texas coast is in the cone for the center to hit, and it's strong enough, parts of the Texas coast could have catastrophic damage.

Is that clear?

-Andrew92

[BayouVenteux]

So apparently Beaumont/Port Arthur are not "Texas" enough for you? You're calling 200,000 people who most likely will get smacked by the NE eyewall an afterthought. Great.

Im sorry - but how do you figure TX will be in the NE eyewall with the storm bearing more east then what was projected? .. NE eyewall =LA

Ummm...this is a "how many angels on the head of a pin" argument...the Golden Triangle and the Calcasieu-Cameron Parish areas both stand to be catastrophically affected by Rita.

[tallywx]

Jax, let me tell you, I don't want Rita to go to Texas, and I'm positive nobody else wants Rita to go to Texas either. But Texas is still in the cone of uncertainty; therefore, Texas could still get hit by Rita.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why you keep saying that Texas is out of the woods, because they are not. The risk in Texas MAY be lowering, and yes the risk in Louisiana is rising. However, it is still VERY unwise to say that Texas will not get hit at all.

Texas will not be out of the woods unless/until either:

1. Rita makes a right to the north-northwest and then north RIGHT NOW (not likely),

2. Rita closes in on Louisiana (which may happen, but it may not either, we still don't know), and/or

3. Rita has dissipated.

Have I made myself clear now? Because I don't want to argue anymore, but at this time, it is preposterous to even think that Texas will definitely not get hit by Rita.

-Andrew92

Andrew,
Jax said that he thinks that texas would be spared of the catastrophic damage. If the eye goes over the TX/LA boarder, the catastropic damage would be in LA not TX!!! He said that he thinks texas is out of the Catastrophic damage.

Then you'd better pray that she goes in exactly at the TX/LA border and not three miles west of that border. Because anything inside TX more than 3 miles, and Beaumont/Port Arthur gets the NE eyewall. Are you ready to split hairs 36 hours out, my friend?

[huricanwatcher]

Because I'm buying the 5 p.m. NHC track exactly. Last two recon. plots average a due WNW heading (+4 minutes north, -9 minutes west). That extrapolates to Galveston. Even if she bends NW of current track, that would follow NHC pretty well. Notice how NOT A SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL takes the eye into Louisiana. TX/LA border at best, which is the 400,000 aforementioned people.


That's how.

but still the worse of the storm will hit LA... god bless LA and TX coast right now... its all gonna be bad...

[Ivanhater]

Because I'm buying the 5 p.m. NHC track exactly. Last two recon. plots average a due WNW heading (+4 minutes north, -9 minutes west). That extrapolates to Galveston. Even if she bends NW of current track, that would follow NHC pretty well. Notice how NOT A SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL takes the eye into Louisiana. TX/LA border at best, which is the 400,000 aforementioned people.


That's how.

thats just incorrect, ukmet takes it into lousiana, so there is your SINGLE model, and its obvious by satellite its headed to louisiana right now, only way to get back on nhc track, which it is currently going north of ONCE again, is if it went back more to the west, which it has not and has actually been moving more north all day

[jopatura]

[quote=ivanhater]thats just incorrect, ukmet takes it into lousiana, so there is your SINGLE model, and its obvious by satellite its headed to lousiana right now, only way to get back on nhc track, which it is currently going north of ONCE again, is if it went back more to the west, which it has not and has actually been moving more north all day[/quote]

You can't look at satellite and know exactly where the storm is going to hit. If that was possible, we'd have perfect forecasts.

[huricanwatcher]

[quote=ivanhater]thats just incorrect, ukmet takes it into lousiana, so there is your SINGLE model, and its obvious by satellite its headed to lousiana right now, only way to get back on nhc track, which it is currently going north of ONCE again, is if it went back more to the west, which it has not and has actually been moving more north all day

You can't look at satellite and know exactly where the storm is going to hit. If that was possible, we'd have perfect forecasts.[/quote]

and we wouldnt have over 1000 dead in LA and MS

[tallywx]

Because I'm buying the 5 p.m. NHC track exactly. Last two recon. plots average a due WNW heading (+4 minutes north, -9 minutes west). That extrapolates to Galveston. Even if she bends NW of current track, that would follow NHC pretty well. Notice how NOT A SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL takes the eye into Louisiana. TX/LA border at best, which is the 400,000 aforementioned people.


That's how.

thats just incorrect, ukmet takes it into lousiana, so there is your SINGLE model, and its obvious by satellite its headed to lousiana right now, only way to get back on nhc track, which it is currently going north of ONCE again, is if it went back more to the west, which it has not and has actually been moving more north all day

If it were so obvious, there wouldn't be extrapolative controversy, which there is. Case in point: last two recon. fixes showing it going slightly west of WNW. That would put it in all the way south at Galveston.

[Ivanhater]

[quote=ivanhater]thats just incorrect, ukmet takes it into lousiana, so there is your SINGLE model, and its obvious by satellite its headed to lousiana right now, only way to get back on nhc track, which it is currently going north of ONCE again, is if it went back more to the west, which it has not and has actually been moving more north all day

You can't look at satellite and know exactly where the storm is going to hit. If that was possible, we'd have perfect forecasts.[/quote]

i dont remember saying where EXACTLY where it would hit, but its obvious a texas threat is going down and it will not hit texas on its current heading