Seattle will probably end up drier than normal for September. I do not see any big rains on the way and officially Seattle is at .61 for the month through today.
We could also end up around normal for temperatures if we get some ridging. The models have been backing off on a trough in the 6-10 day time-frame and now push it back later.
This recent trough was temporary and a direct effect of a typhoon in Japan.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
First trough of the season...and did it change the weather in Spokane!
We went from the mid 80s on Wednesday/Thursday...to the lower 60s Friday/Saturday. We got a little moisture (nothing too great) but the big (and most notable) change was temperature...it truly felt like fall this weekend.
Although I don't have time to look at computer models as I once did, a more zonal flow tries to develop in the extended...which is typical for the later half of September/early October. I'm not sold yet (the model being the GFS and all) but definitely something to watch.
As for Gonzaga, I like it here...but I do miss home and Seattle. When I didn't make the University of Washington, I kind of put my meteorological education on hold...unfortunately Gonzaga does not offer Atmospheric Sciences as a major. So I do plan to transfer to the UW either next fall (2006) or the fall after (2007) to enroll in Atmospheric Sciences. Right now I'm taking pre-reqs at Gonzaga and enjoying the college life.
Anthony
We went from the mid 80s on Wednesday/Thursday...to the lower 60s Friday/Saturday. We got a little moisture (nothing too great) but the big (and most notable) change was temperature...it truly felt like fall this weekend.
Although I don't have time to look at computer models as I once did, a more zonal flow tries to develop in the extended...which is typical for the later half of September/early October. I'm not sold yet (the model being the GFS and all) but definitely something to watch.
As for Gonzaga, I like it here...but I do miss home and Seattle. When I didn't make the University of Washington, I kind of put my meteorological education on hold...unfortunately Gonzaga does not offer Atmospheric Sciences as a major. So I do plan to transfer to the UW either next fall (2006) or the fall after (2007) to enroll in Atmospheric Sciences. Right now I'm taking pre-reqs at Gonzaga and enjoying the college life.
Anthony
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weather girl
- Tropical Depression
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- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
I think we'll see at least one winter weather event this season. ENSO neutral, cooler off the Pacific, very active hurricane season. It could be wind (as Dr. Taylor suggests) or snow/ice. First week of December sounds good for a wind storm, and I'm thinking the first week of January if it's snow/ice. I do think we'll have an active winter season.
Also, look for October to be slightly warmer. That's kind of surprising because I think September will continue to be on the cool side. For example, I think the 80s have basically called it quits for those of us here in the Willamette Valley. But I'm thinking seasonably warm and dry in October. It's still a few weeks out, but some changes are in the works. The big storms will start lining up in early November.
That's all just me, and I don't take myself seriously at all. Although I will say this: Fall is my favorite time of year.
Also, look for October to be slightly warmer. That's kind of surprising because I think September will continue to be on the cool side. For example, I think the 80s have basically called it quits for those of us here in the Willamette Valley. But I'm thinking seasonably warm and dry in October. It's still a few weeks out, but some changes are in the works. The big storms will start lining up in early November.
That's all just me, and I don't take myself seriously at all. Although I will say this: Fall is my favorite time of year.
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
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- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
NWS thinks we will be getting into a wet westerly flow next week, though of course we all know that could change.
Some of us were wondering what Dr. Taylor would forecast for Washington, he of course forecasts for Oregon, and said the chances there for snow would not be good, but indicated that there could be cold weather in the extreme northern states, that could mean Washington. Even if we average warmer then normal, there is no reason why we wouldn't see at least some arctic weather with snow, we even had that the last two winters.
Some of us were wondering what Dr. Taylor would forecast for Washington, he of course forecasts for Oregon, and said the chances there for snow would not be good, but indicated that there could be cold weather in the extreme northern states, that could mean Washington. Even if we average warmer then normal, there is no reason why we wouldn't see at least some arctic weather with snow, we even had that the last two winters.
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weather girl
- Tropical Depression
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Although we (Oregon and Washington) are generally favored by the same weather patterns, I remember a few winters when Seattle got blasted with snow and we got good ol' fashioned rain. I don't want to speak for Dr. Taylor, of course, but I kinda took what he meant when he said "extreme northern states" as Seattle northward, unless he was talking about the Dakotas and such....the upper northeast, maybe? Who knows.... I have read where an active hurricane season is followed by bitter cold in the east.
On the other hand, I have read/heard more than one meteorologist talking about a wild winter here in the PNW. Dr. Taylor doesn't indicate that so much. There was one guy I read somewhere who was suggesting 1947 as an analog. I'll have to research that one.
On the other hand, I have read/heard more than one meteorologist talking about a wild winter here in the PNW. Dr. Taylor doesn't indicate that so much. There was one guy I read somewhere who was suggesting 1947 as an analog. I'll have to research that one.
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TT-SEA
Anthony... glad to hear that all is well.
Most of the people from Spokane think we are crazy for living on the other side of the state!! I... of course... completely disagree. I have spent enough time in Spokane to know the truth.
In fact... I was in Spokane last week and I am here again this week. I went to see a movie last week at the Northtown Mall so I was right near Gonzaga.
Most of the people from Spokane think we are crazy for living on the other side of the state!! I... of course... completely disagree. I have spent enough time in Spokane to know the truth.
In fact... I was in Spokane last week and I am here again this week. I went to see a movie last week at the Northtown Mall so I was right near Gonzaga.
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TT-SEA
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weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
InAccuweather (I like that one) is forecasting a big pattern switch at the end of the month. (Big cool down in the East; big warm up in the West.) They have our highs going into the 80s by the end of September. In fact, they have Salem up near 90 (gasp!) on the 29th and 30th. Try as I might, I can't see that happening. Beisdes, it would be extremely rare for us to see temperatures that high at the end of September. From what I can telll, the GFS is indicating otherwise as well. I think it might be right this time.
Does somebody else see it and if so, what am I missing?
Does somebody else see it and if so, what am I missing?
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There's definitely an Autumn feel to the air as temperatures have remained in the upper 60s, lower 70s the past week or so. There hasn't been much precipitation, but you can tell there's a transition in the weather.
I finally looked at the models (it's been almost a week) and there seems to be a zonal flow developing this week and lasting for the forseeable future. Granted, the flow isn't overally strong and the jet stream remains north of the WA/Canadian border, it's a sign that Autumn is rapidly approaching. Weak, embedded shortwaves should affect the PNW for the next two weeks...not much precipitation (mostly in the isolated variety) and temperatures should remain at or below normal.
As for the big pattern change at the end of September (ridge in the west, trough in the east) I'm not buying it. Until there is run-to-run consistency in the models, you can't trust these major pattern swings. One minor disturbance in another country can completely throw off forecasting models.
Everything is well in Spokane...busy with homework and school. College is alot tougher than high school!! LOL!
Anthony
PS-I'll try to post more often. Unfortunately, it never seems there's enough time in the day. Hopefully I don't go another five days without a post.
I finally looked at the models (it's been almost a week) and there seems to be a zonal flow developing this week and lasting for the forseeable future. Granted, the flow isn't overally strong and the jet stream remains north of the WA/Canadian border, it's a sign that Autumn is rapidly approaching. Weak, embedded shortwaves should affect the PNW for the next two weeks...not much precipitation (mostly in the isolated variety) and temperatures should remain at or below normal.
As for the big pattern change at the end of September (ridge in the west, trough in the east) I'm not buying it. Until there is run-to-run consistency in the models, you can't trust these major pattern swings. One minor disturbance in another country can completely throw off forecasting models.
Everything is well in Spokane...busy with homework and school. College is alot tougher than high school!! LOL!
Anthony
PS-I'll try to post more often. Unfortunately, it never seems there's enough time in the day. Hopefully I don't go another five days without a post.
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
A little coolish feel to the air here to, with highs mainly in the mid 60`s over the past four days...including today with a high of 66 and low of 46 here in Woodinville. Yesterday was kinda cloudy/overcast, but with some periods of partical clearing. Had some thick fog early this morning, which led to partly cloudy skies from about mid-morning onward...mainly some stratocumulus, altocumulus and a little bit of cirrus. -- Andy
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Unfortunately my posts keep getting further and further apart, but I will try to fix that in the near term. But there doesn't seem to be too much activity over the past two weeks...but I think things will change within the next week or two.
Taking a look at latest models, it does show a significant pattern change beginning the middle/end of next week...end of Sept., beginning of October. This could be the first sign of our rainy season as a strong zonal flow begins to develop over the Pacific and plows its way through the PNW. At this time, it's still a little early to pinpoint an exact date for this change, but almost all models agree on the general idea.
And one more thing...someone previously posted that a significant ridge in the west/trough in the east would develop by the end of Sept. I knew these forecasts were jumping the gun...not one model indicates this scenario. Remember, you can never trust the forecast models beyond the near term (1-3 days).
All is fairly well in Spokane but I do miss home. I've now decided to transfer (hopefully) to the UW fall of 2006. I can't put my meteorological education on hold much longer...I know that's where I want to be.
Anthony
Taking a look at latest models, it does show a significant pattern change beginning the middle/end of next week...end of Sept., beginning of October. This could be the first sign of our rainy season as a strong zonal flow begins to develop over the Pacific and plows its way through the PNW. At this time, it's still a little early to pinpoint an exact date for this change, but almost all models agree on the general idea.
And one more thing...someone previously posted that a significant ridge in the west/trough in the east would develop by the end of Sept. I knew these forecasts were jumping the gun...not one model indicates this scenario. Remember, you can never trust the forecast models beyond the near term (1-3 days).
All is fairly well in Spokane but I do miss home. I've now decided to transfer (hopefully) to the UW fall of 2006. I can't put my meteorological education on hold much longer...I know that's where I want to be.
Anthony
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
Anthony, that is great that you are going to the UW meteoroligical school. Maybe when you are there you could meet Nate, who is the PDO guru. On other forums there has been debate about the PDO, where is it going etc.
I do find it reassuring that we may get into a real fall pattern soon. Not that this means we will have a snowy or wild winter, but it might be a good sign that things will be different next year.
I do find it reassuring that we may get into a real fall pattern soon. Not that this means we will have a snowy or wild winter, but it might be a good sign that things will be different next year.
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
Pattern change underway...
Unfortunately I have not been able to improve my updates...the main problem is my access to the internet is very limited. But hopefully things will improve in the future. Right now classes are kicking my butt so I have very little time to go on the internet aside from research.
Back to the weather...a nice pattern change is underway. Weather has changed drastically the past 12 hours...winds have kicked up in Spokane and we now have overcast conditions. A good dose of rainfall is in the forecast for tomorrow...I'm thinking we might get a rainshadow with a westerly flow. I'll keep you updated.
Haven't looked at the latest long range models...but I'm assuming Fall has arrived meaning one system after another every 36-48 hours. Very typical for this time of year.
Can you believe it's already October? And what about the daylight? It's dark by 7pm now! It's crazy! I hate this transition period.
Anthony
Unfortunately I have not been able to improve my updates...the main problem is my access to the internet is very limited. But hopefully things will improve in the future. Right now classes are kicking my butt so I have very little time to go on the internet aside from research.
Back to the weather...a nice pattern change is underway. Weather has changed drastically the past 12 hours...winds have kicked up in Spokane and we now have overcast conditions. A good dose of rainfall is in the forecast for tomorrow...I'm thinking we might get a rainshadow with a westerly flow. I'll keep you updated.
Haven't looked at the latest long range models...but I'm assuming Fall has arrived meaning one system after another every 36-48 hours. Very typical for this time of year.
Can you believe it's already October? And what about the daylight? It's dark by 7pm now! It's crazy! I hate this transition period.
Anthony
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weather girl
- Tropical Depression
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- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
Not that it relates directly to us, but I thought this was interesting. From the Maryland Coast Dispatch:
"In most winters, a single weather entity such as an El Nino or La Nina sets the weather patterns throughout the entire country, but absent a dominating factor, the National Weather Service said this week predicting winter weather in the mid-Atlantic is going to be a crap-shoot. “We are definitely receiving mixed signals about this winter,” said Weather Service Climatologist Mike Halpert. “Some of the models point to a harsh winter in the mid-Atlantic while others are predicting a mild winter.”
There's a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada right now. Big question is who's going to get it? I'm not sold quite yet on a bitter cold, snowy east. Not that I think we'll get it out here, although after last year's dismal snow showing, I guess I wouldn't mind.
Should be an interesting season.
http://www.mdcoastdispatch.com/almanac09305.html
"In most winters, a single weather entity such as an El Nino or La Nina sets the weather patterns throughout the entire country, but absent a dominating factor, the National Weather Service said this week predicting winter weather in the mid-Atlantic is going to be a crap-shoot. “We are definitely receiving mixed signals about this winter,” said Weather Service Climatologist Mike Halpert. “Some of the models point to a harsh winter in the mid-Atlantic while others are predicting a mild winter.”
There's a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada right now. Big question is who's going to get it? I'm not sold quite yet on a bitter cold, snowy east. Not that I think we'll get it out here, although after last year's dismal snow showing, I guess I wouldn't mind.
Should be an interesting season.
http://www.mdcoastdispatch.com/almanac09305.html
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Could this be the winter we shine in terms of cold/snow/wind ect.......I sure hope so! I am not going to make any predictions though, I would get a talking to by TT-SEA, or Snowwizzard LOL 
And get a talking to by everyone else if I predict anything in between mild and cold
Got very windy yesterday when we were in the rainshadow here in my area, power was out for about 3hrs.
And get a talking to by everyone else if I predict anything in between mild and cold
Got very windy yesterday when we were in the rainshadow here in my area, power was out for about 3hrs.
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TT-SEA
No... I agree with Snow_Wizzard this year. This could be our winter. I have been communicating with him via e-mail occasionally but not much. A below normal September is a very good sign. We need October to be below normal as well.
I am hopeful... everything seems to be lining up.
We got clobbered here in North Bend. I know we had well over 2 inches of rain but I think the wind caused my rain gauge to "over-catch". I had gotten just a cheap plastic rain gauge and they have worked pretty good in the past (my weather station is out of service right now). But this morning I went out and it was full to the top. That would mean 5+ inches of rain. But thats not possible. It was sitting out in the open not near the house or any trees. But the wind was so incredibly strong for almost 24 hours straight here that I think it screwed up my reading.
I searched the internet and it says wind causes an "under-catch" with rain gauges.
Any ideas??
The big ridge behind our house sounded like Niagra Falls today. There were several new waterfalls pouring out of the hills and the sound was amazing. Luckily our house is far enough away and not in the drainage path so we are fine.
I am hopeful... everything seems to be lining up.
We got clobbered here in North Bend. I know we had well over 2 inches of rain but I think the wind caused my rain gauge to "over-catch". I had gotten just a cheap plastic rain gauge and they have worked pretty good in the past (my weather station is out of service right now). But this morning I went out and it was full to the top. That would mean 5+ inches of rain. But thats not possible. It was sitting out in the open not near the house or any trees. But the wind was so incredibly strong for almost 24 hours straight here that I think it screwed up my reading.
I searched the internet and it says wind causes an "under-catch" with rain gauges.
Any ideas??
The big ridge behind our house sounded like Niagra Falls today. There were several new waterfalls pouring out of the hills and the sound was amazing. Luckily our house is far enough away and not in the drainage path so we are fine.
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From what I've heard, it definitely was an active weekend in Western Washington! I heard you guys got some pretty good thunderstorms over the past few days. The biggest change in Spokane has been the temperature...it's down right cold for this time of year. We've been struggling to get out of the 50s the past few days.
Well, it looks like Fall has officially arrived! Taking a look at latest models, an extended zonal flow looks to continue for the next two weeks. Heights are low and there's plenty of moisture coming. I'm still waiting for a good windstorm...though I'm not sure the perfect situation to get a windstorm in Spokane. I think it's similar to Western Washington, although there's no Olympics/Cascades to create a tunnel.
I will be home for three days next weekend...Friday (Oct 7) thru Monday (Oct 10). It will be good to be home.
Anthony
Well, it looks like Fall has officially arrived! Taking a look at latest models, an extended zonal flow looks to continue for the next two weeks. Heights are low and there's plenty of moisture coming. I'm still waiting for a good windstorm...though I'm not sure the perfect situation to get a windstorm in Spokane. I think it's similar to Western Washington, although there's no Olympics/Cascades to create a tunnel.
I will be home for three days next weekend...Friday (Oct 7) thru Monday (Oct 10). It will be good to be home.
Anthony
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