Now she is a Louisiana Storm

[skysummit]

If she's still going to go to Texas, she better start turning back to the wnw soon.

[djtil]

it's becoming more and more obvious...
unless she has a strong and prolonged western jog....
this is a Louisiana storm

based on mean motion over last 12 hours would still be south of galveston....still has to gain northerly component to hit galveston...how can you say that current motion takes it to louisiana? confused.

[Andrew92]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

look at the SAT loops... she is drawing a straight bead line to the TX / LA
boarder now... and even the NHC is saying it's going to turn NE eventually...

unless she starts a more westerly course right now.... TX is out of
the woods now... when i say out of the woods... i'm talking about
catasatrophic damage... i don't see that happening... Sure, There
will be some downed trees, power outages, stuff like that...
But nothing like the effect of being on the estern side of one of
these monsters...

Texas is BY NO MEANS out of the woods! Posts like that only increase complacency. What if Rita makes a slight jog back to the left and heads towards Texas? You never know.....if I was from Houston, I'd be on my way outta there.

-Andrew92

[Ivanhater]

every new image that comes out keeps showing nw, ive have seen no bump back west at all

[TexasStooge]

I still think it's a Texas Storm. Louisiana's been battered enough.

[jax]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

look at the SAT loops... she is drawing a straight bead line to the TX / LA
boarder now... and even the NHC is saying it's going to turn NE eventually...

unless she starts a more westerly course right now.... TX is out of
the woods now... when i say out of the woods... i'm talking about
catasatrophic damage... i don't see that happening... Sure, There
will be some downed trees, power outages, stuff like that...
But nothing like the effect of being on the estern side of one of
these monsters...

Texas is BY NO MEANS out of the woods! Posts like that only increase complacency. What if Rita makes a slight jog back to the left and heads towards Texas? You never know.....if I was from Houston, I'd be on my way outta there.

-Andrew92

it' would take more than a little jog... have you looked at the loops?
are you reading my whole posts?

[Andrew92]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

look at the SAT loops... she is drawing a straight bead line to the TX / LA
boarder now... and even the NHC is saying it's going to turn NE eventually...

unless she starts a more westerly course right now.... TX is out of
the woods now... when i say out of the woods... i'm talking about
catasatrophic damage... i don't see that happening... Sure, There
will be some downed trees, power outages, stuff like that...
But nothing like the effect of being on the estern side of one of
these monsters...

Texas is BY NO MEANS out of the woods! Posts like that only increase complacency. What if Rita makes a slight jog back to the left and heads towards Texas? You never know.....if I was from Houston, I'd be on my way outta there.

-Andrew92

it' would take more than a little jog... have you looked at the loops?
are you reading my whole posts?

Believe me, I have seen the loops and I have read your entire posts. Yes, Rita might make landfall in Louisiana. However, I will say it again, TEXAS IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS!!! Just because it appears to be heading toward Louisiana, doesn't mean it still can't make landfall somewhere east of Galveston but west of the border.

I was referring to when you said Texas is not out of the woods, and I did catch in terms of catastrophic damage. And that is SO NOT TRUE.

-Andrew92

[djtil]

i keep hearing "look at the loops" its going to la....i have looked at the loops and with a straight edge the current loop over the last few hours still has a bullseye on galveston......i cant believe someone gets la out of this....remarkable.

[jax]

tell me this... who had catastophic damage from Camille... Biloxi or NO?

Who had catastrophic damage from Ivan... Pensacola or Mobile?

Who had catastophic damage from Katrina... Biloxi or Baton Rouge?

Yes... Galvaston and Houston will have some trees down. some homes
will be destroyed... but it won't be wide spread and catastrophic...
unless you go to LA... Lake Charles and the places south and east.

based on what i'm seeing... this is a LA event... TX will be an afterthought.

JMHO

[jasons2k]

Just did the old paper over satellite trick. The extrapolated heading is Freeport, and she is wobbling.

Anyone from Freeport to Cameron is at risk IMO.

[jax]

Just did the old paper over satellite trick. The extrapolated heading is Freeport, and she is wobbling.

Anyone from Freeport to Cameron is at risk IMO.

again.... and the NHC states she will turn to the NW....
do you want this thing to come to Texas?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just did the old paper over satellite trick. The extrapolated heading is Freeport, and she is wobbling.

Anyone from Freeport to Cameron is at risk IMO.

again.... and the NHC states she will turn to the NW....
do you want this thing to come to Texas?

Jax Where the hell are you posting from if you have no roof or power?

[jax]

here is what Mark Suddeth has posted on http://www.Hurricanetrak.com

UPDATED: 4:55 pm EDT, September 22, 2005
VERY GRIM SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR LOUISIANA AS RITA CLOSES IN

I do not want to diminish the threat to Texas that Rita poses- but for areas like Freeport and Galveston, that threat is indeed less tonight. With that said, the threat to Louisiana has increased significantly- even in New Orleans. The official NHC track takes Rita inland near the Louisiana/Texas border. This will place a great deal of SW Louisiana within the dreaded right-front quadrant of this hurricane. Storm surge, very strong wind, flooding rain and even the possibility of tornadoes will plague portions of the upper Texas coast and into Louisiana. Obviously, the big story right now is the evacuation of these areas. Traffic is beyond description from what I understand- and it will only get worse until people file out. The brunt of Rita's effects will move in later tonight and throughout tomorrow. Landfall looks to be early Saturday morning. Tomorrow, the big countdown begins. Use the daylight to prepare and to evacuate. Use common sense to survive. I will be in or near Lake Cahrles, LA by late tonight. My plans to report on and take measurements from the hurricane will go in to action once I am in Louisiana. I hope to work with Jeff Flock and Rob Hess of HurricaneNow.com. We will report from the hurricane together- as we have done in the past when Jeff was at CNN. I will post video reports as often as possible and will also keep this page updated with commentary too. There will be a point when the Sprint PCS network takes a hit- and we will lose data coverage. I will do the best I can to phone in reports to my colleagues well outside of the area. That's it for now- it is a hot and hazy day here in Texas (I am currently in Clute- near Lake Jackson). Tomorrow, the rain will commence- and so will my work. I will have another update here around 11pm EDT tonight.

[opera ghost]

Just did the old paper over satellite trick. The extrapolated heading is Freeport, and she is wobbling.

Anyone from Freeport to Cameron is at risk IMO.

again.... and the NHC states she will turn to the NW....
do you want this thing to come to Texas?

While I neither agree nor disagree with this being a louisiana storm-

You can't pick and choose which parts of the NHC forcast to use. If you're going to quote them on a specific turn- you should also lend credence to thier forcast path.

they say it'll go northwest- but they also say it'll go to Texas...

Personally, I hope it dissapates. It's beyond my ability to forcast.

[vespersparrow]

I do pray people are getting out of this thing's way. I've heard people are already stuck on the interstate, out of gas, going nowhere and that they're considering bringing fuel trucks in for them. Unbelievable.

[x-y-no]

tell me this... who had catastophic damage from Camille... Biloxi or NO?

Who had catastrophic damage from Ivan... Pensacola or Mobile?

Who had catastophic damage from Katrina... Biloxi or Baton Rouge?

Yes... Galvaston and Houston will have some trees down. some homes
will be destroyed... but it won't be wide spread and catastrophic...
unless you go to LA... Lake Charles and the places south and east.

based on what i'm seeing... this is a LA event... TX will be an afterthought.

JMHO

Obviously, the risk for LA has been going up, and the risk for TX has been going down.

But honestly ...



how anyone can say this amounts to Texas neccesarily being "an afterthought" is beyond me.

Track errors cut both ways at different times.

[Ixolib]

...How anyone can say this amounts to Texas neccesarily being "an afterthought" is beyond me.

Track errors cut both ways at different times.

Surely more than an "afterthought", but LA will be the forethought...

[SoupBone]

The problem I have is that the total focus has been on Texas...not even a hint of Louisiana till recently...I am telling you first hand people here have no clue what is going on or that she is possibly coming here because of the NHC saying Texas. If it does hit Louisiana I am telling you it will be bad here because no-one is evacuating because of the medias coverage of Texas.

[jax]

history tells us that if you are more than 50 miles west of the
eye of the major hurricane... you are an afterthought due to the
catastrophic damage done to the east of the eye...

it's looking more and more like a LA storm... JMHO...

[Andrew92]

Jax, let me tell you, I don't want Rita to go to Texas, and I'm positive nobody else wants Rita to go to Texas either. But Texas is still in the cone of uncertainty; therefore, Texas could still get hit by Rita.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why you keep saying that Texas is out of the woods, because they are not. The risk in Texas MAY be lowering, and yes the risk in Louisiana is rising. However, it is still VERY unwise to say that Texas will not get hit at all.

Texas will not be out of the woods unless/until either:

1. Rita makes a right to the north-northwest and then north RIGHT NOW (not likely),

2. Rita closes in on Louisiana (which may happen, but it may not either, we still don't know), and/or

3. Rita has dissipated.

Have I made myself clear now? Because I don't want to argue anymore, but at this time, it is preposterous to even think that Texas will definitely not get hit by Rita.

-Andrew92