This is a Lake Charles, LA storm, IMO

[Nimbus]

NHC track is east of Houston at 11 AM.
Water vapor image looks like the high to the west is bridging over Rita so the steering may relax.
As long as the NHC track and the models keep trending right it is an increasing concern for LA.

[lacyclone]

I know I am inland quite a bit (Alexandria), but with Lili, we got a good bit of wind and rain. She was only a cat 2. What could I expect with a cat 4/5 coming through Lake Charles. Also, my sister in law is in Lafayette at school. I sure hope she comes home.

[BamaMan]

May even end up being more to the east. IMO

[mahmoo]

I'm in Lafayette......ya'll think we should consider leaving or just hold tight???? Not sure what to do

[cjrciadt]

Area in question looked up on GRLevel3 where you are all located. Updated

[mattpetre]

If I were in Lafayette I'd be heading north for a few days just to be safe.

[Ixolib]

I'm in Lafayette......ya'll think we should consider leaving or just hold tight???? Not sure what to do

Back in the old days (pre August 29), my first question would have been "are you in a flood/surge area"? Now-a-days, that question seems to have no viable answer...

[mahmoo]

Normally not in a flood area.....i am very close to Vermillion River though.

Actually, i'm more afraid of the tornadoes spawned by these hurricanes.

[SoupBone]

Guys....what is the holdup by the HNC to shift this thing towards central and SW LA? Every new frame that comes out still looks NW to me. Is the NHC waiting on something to move her more west?

[Ixolib]

Normally not in a flood area.....i am very close to Vermillion River though.

Actually, i'm more afraid of the tornadoes spawned by these hurricanes.

Unfortunately, the tornadoes can still get 'ya, even when evacuated north. Montgomery, Jackson, Baton Rouge - they get tornadoes all the time from land-falling tropical systems...

[JQ Public]

Our local met has been using his model (weatherscope) to predict hurricanes of the recent past. It has been very very accurate on recent NC hurricanes and thats why he uses it. It hasn't had its track outside of Louisiana the entire time since the hurricane entered the gulf.

[arlwx]

Evacuation time for some folks...

Hurricane Local Statement...updated
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1100 Am Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005

...catastrophic Category Five Rita Moving West-northwestward Across
The Central Gulf Of Mexico...

...hurricane Warnings Are Now In Effect For Portions Of The
Louisiana And Texas Coast...

...areas Affected...
This Statement Applies To Jefferson And Orange Counties In Southeast
Texas...cameron...calcasieu...jefferson Davis...acadia...
Vermilion...lafayette...upper And Lower Saint Martin...iberia And
Saint Mary Parishes In Southwest And South Central Louisiana.

...watches/warning...
A Hurricane Warning Is Now In Effect Along The Coast From Port
Oconnor Texas To Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning Means
That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area
Within The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To Protect Life And Property
Should Be Rushed To Completion.

An Inland Hurricane Warning Has Been Issued For The Counties And
Parishes Between Interstate 10 And The Coastline. This Includes
Jefferson And Orange Counties Of Southeast Texas...and Calcasieu...
Jeff Davis...acadia...lafayette...upper And Lower Saint Martin...
Cameron...vermilion...iberia And Saint Mary Parishes Of Southwest
Louisiana.

An Inland Hurricane Watch Has Also Been Issued For The Counties And
Parishes North Of Interstate 10. This Includes Hardin...tyler...
Jasper And Newton Counties Of Southeast Texas...and Beauregard...
Allen...evangeline...saint Landry...vernon...rapides And Avoyelles
Parishes Of Southwest Louisiana.

...storm Information...
At 10 Am Cdt...1500z...the Eye Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 25.4 North...longitude 88.7 West. This Position Is About
445 Miles Southeast Of Port Arthur Texas...or About 410 Miles
Southeast Of Cameron Louisiana.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 9 Mph. A Gradual Turn
To The Northwest Is Expected Over The Next 24 To 36 Hours...and This
Track Would Bring The Center Of The Storm Ashore Along The Extreme
Upper Texas Coast Early Saturday Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased Slightly...to 170 Mph...with
Higher Gusts. This Makes Rita A Potentially Catastrophic Category
Five Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. A Continued Slow
Weakening Trend Is Forecast But Rita Is Expected To Reach The Coast
As A Major Hurricane...at Least A Category Three.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 75 Miles From The
Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 180
Miles.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...
The Following Are Current Evacuation Orders For Southeast Texas And
Southwest Louisiana...

Orange And Jefferson Counties...mandatory For Entire Counties.

Cameron Parish...mandatory For Entire Parish.

Calcasieu Parish...mandatory Evacuation For Everyone South Of
Interstate 10...and Recommended For Residents North Of The
Interstate.

Acadia Parish...voluntary For Southern Part Of The Parish.

Iberia Parish...voluntary For South Of Highways 90 And 14.

Jeff Davis Parish...evacuation Of Low-lying Areas South Of I-10.

Lafayette Parish...voluntary For People In Mobile Homes... Low-lying
Areas...and People With Special Medical Conditions That Require
Electricity.

St. Martin Parish...voluntary Evacuation Of Lower St. Martin Parish
And Low-lying Areas In Upper St Martin Parish.

Vermilion Parish...mandatory Evacuation South Of Highway 14 To
Abbeville And People In All Mobile Homes Or Special Medical Needs.

Emergency Management Officials Recommend That Individuals Take
Supplies To Last For 3 To 5 Days.

...storm Surge Flood And Storm Tide Impacts...
A Significant And Deadly Storm Surge Of 15 To 20 Feet Will Be
Possible Near And To The Right Of Where The Center Crosses The
Coast. This Would Cover The Coastline From Sea Rim State Park In
Jefferson County To Calcasieu Pass In Cameron Parish...including
Sabine Lake. This Will Bring Gulf Waters As Far North As Interstate
10 Across Southeast Texas And Southwest Louisiana...including The
Cities Of Lake Charles And Sulphur Louisiana...and Orange And
Beaumont Texas.

Storm Surge Values Will Decrease To 10 To 14 Feet For The Coastline
Of Eastern Cameron And Vermilion Parishes...and 6 To 10 Feet Around
Vermilion And Atchafalaya Bays.

Based On The Projected Storm Surge Values...major River Flooding Can
Be Expected Along The Lower Reaches Of The Calcasieu...where Crests
Of 9 To 10 Feet Can Be Expected. Major Flooding Is Also Likely Along
The Mermentau River...where Crests Of 7 To 8 Feet Are Expected.

...wind Impacts...
All Of Southeast Texas...and The Border Parishes Of Southwest
Louisiana Will Experience Extreme Winds Of Long Duration As This
Large System Tracks Across The Northwest Gulf And Into East Texas.
Winds Will Increase To Near Tropical Storm Force Over The Coastal
Waters Tonight...spreading Inland Along And South Of Interstate 10
Across Southwest Louisiana And Southeast Texas Through Friday. Winds
Will Continue To Increase Through Friday Night As Rita Nears The
Coastline...ranging From 40 To 60 Mph...possibly Reaching Hurricane
Force Near 80 Mph Across Extreme Southeast Texas. These Winds Will
Further Increase To 100 Mph Or Greater By Early Saturday
Morning...especially Across Jefferson And Orange Counties. Winds
Will Very Gradually Diminish Saturday Once The System Makes Landfall
And Moves Further North Into East-central Texas.

With These Strong Winds And The Extended Duration Of Them...
Significant Damage Can Be Expected Across The Region. Numerous Trees
And Power Lines Will Be Downed...with Widespread And Extended Power
Outages Likely. Some Structures Will Also Fail.

...rainfall Impacts...
Extreme Rainfall Will Also Accompany Rita...with A Storm Total Of 8
To 12 Inches Expected. Locally Higher Amounts Of 10 To 15 Inches
Will Also Be Possible.

...tornado Impacts...
Isolated Tornadoes Will Be Possible Across Southeast Texas And
Southwest Louisiana Beginning Friday Night As Rita Approaches The
Coastline.

...next Update...
The Next Local Statement On Hurricane Rita Will Be Issued By 200 Pm.

$$

Escude/lockwood

[Nimbus]

Still looks like Galveston will be on the weaker side of the storm.
Watching her reintensify after the EWRC is going to be nerve racking.

Upper level wind pattern 24 hours ago:



Real time upper level winds now:

[Sean in New Orleans]

Close to Lake Charles, but, it will be from Cameron to Orange, TX that will get the worst conditions from Rita. Unfortunately, this is a fairly populated area....I hope they all evacuated.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Is the storm stationery??
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... klch.shtml

[LSU]

Sean nailed this three days ago while the NHC was still talking Corpus Christi to Galveston. I think most of us with eyes were in accord with Sean, but some of the more staunch were not willing to exchange vision for the "expertise" of the computers and NHC.

The media was more than happy to jump on the Galveston-Houston doomsday scenario.

[PTrackerLA]

Props to Sean for this call. She still hasn't landfalled but it's obvious that Lake Charles will be getting the brunt of this storm. Just goes to show that NHC doesn't always nail them. Who would have thought that Lafayette, LA would be getting hurricane force gusts 3 days ago?

[BayouVenteux]

Props to Sean for this call. She still hasn't landfalled but it's obvious that Lake Charles will be getting the brunt of this storm. Just goes to show that NHC doesn't always nail them. Who would have thought that Lafayette, LA would be getting hurricane force gusts 3 days ago?

Ditto PT, I'll second those props for Sean, as I sit here listening to the very strong squalls outside and try to finish this post before the power flickers off again...hopefully not for the duration.

Stay safe everyone!

[Derek Ortt]

eye wall is just minutes from moving into Cameron

expect wind gusts approaching 125 m.p.h. in the eye wall. Anyone remaining needs to take immediate shelter