Not a wobble thread, but Rita will miss the next forecast pt

[skysummit]

I hope not aOL. She wouldn't have to go too much further east for there to be some major flooding issues down here.

[Javlin]

Well she is wobbling back west.

See how it goes 11:45 UTC 25.23'N 88.37'W
______________12:45UTC 25.28'N 88.48'W
______________13:45UTC 25.36'N 88.59'W


She may just be stairstepping herself to the NHC points.If another N jog takes place before there next point then I would expect models to begin moving even more E.It's the waiting game I hate hit.

using GHCC infared and center of storm.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Totally missing the next point.

[RU4REAL]

is that a north jog I see in the last frame? If so, how long will it be before the NHC changes their track?

[HurryKane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Totally missing the next point.

Gyaah I have already had friends up north ask when we're evacuating. Yesterday it was funny.

Today, not so much.

[cjrciadt]

She is moving NNW allright I dont want to think about the 5pm track.

[skysummit]

Well, the 10a.m. track didn't change at all...still upper Texas coast.

[SoupBone]

I hate to question this guys but what does the NHC know that we don't? It still looks to be coming to LA at this point...possibly Central LA even...why haven't they updated the track east at all?

[HurricaneGirl]

Getting awful close to the TX / LA border

[Mattie]

NHC just changed landfall to Beaumont . . .

[Javlin]

Well, the 10a.m. track didn't change at all...still upper Texas coast.

Yea Sky seems they usually change tracks on th e5:00PM advisory.I would think that this due in part that they want to see a dfinite trend in place.

[HurryKane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Totally missing the next point.

Gyaah I have already had friends up north ask when we're evacuating. Yesterday it was funny.

Today, not so much.

[gatorcane]

Yea Sky seems they usually change tracks on th e5:00PM advisory.I would think that this due in part that they want to see a dfinite trend in place.

it will be too late to shift it right by 5pm. Most of LA has not even evacuated

[cajungal]

Hurricane warning extends to only Morgan City. Morgan City is only 25 miles to my due west. Do you think I could receive any hurricane force winds being that close to Morgan City?

[joseph01]

Based on the movement seen on IR for the last 6 or 7 hours, wouldn't the extrpolation line now be pointing to Galveston?

I see the official track just changed, as of 10:00, is now between there and the LA border.

[skysummit]

CG...right now, I think we'll get 50-60mph at the most....that's if she doesn't come any closer.

[LAwxrgal]

Hurricane warning extends to only Morgan City. Morgan City is only 25 miles to my due west. Do you think I could receive any hurricane force winds being that close to Morgan City?

Probably in gusts. However, be ready if the path shifts any further east.

[HurryKane]

Yea Sky seems they usually change tracks on th e5:00PM advisory.I would think that this due in part that they want to see a dfinite trend in place.

it will be too late to shift it right by 5pm. Most of LA has not even evacuated

An, I-12 eastbound is already stop and go traffic all the way through Covington, per a coworker's spouse.

[Ivanhater]

image 1445 in, big jump nw

[Recurve]

Hurricane warning extends to only Morgan City. Morgan City is only 25 miles to my due west. Do you think I could receive any hurricane force winds being that close to Morgan City?

ABSOLUTELY.

Warning area means they expect hurricane winds or greater at Morgan City. You could easily have hurricane gusts in squals, or even more if the track brings the eye closer to Morgan City.

Because of the NE quad effect with the possibility of a TX/LA border landfall, I'd be prepared for hurricane conditions as far east as the Mississippi.