This is a Lake Charles, LA storm, IMO

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TampaFl
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#81 Postby TampaFl » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:29 am

stormspotter wrote:Central La is under the gun as we can all see based on latest sat loops and unfortunately this is worse of a situation since La. is not ready to respond. The unfortunate thing is Fox and CNN is still dwelling on a Texas hit....God help us all!



:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#82 Postby Lori » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:34 am

TS Zack wrote:
HollynLA wrote:Much of LA went to bed last night thinking this was going to central TX, the storm is steadily defying the forecast points by going to NE of the point. I really fear that this storm will take LA by surprise, there wouldn't be much time to get out at this point.


WE CANT

It is too late.


There is still time to head east to Florida panhandle, Pensacola-Destin.
I think after the 10am advisory comes out with the shift eastward and possible hurricane warnings-then things will go insane.
Were evacuee friendly here in the Niceville and Destin areas, Come for a visit.
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#83 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:39 am

Lori wrote:
TS Zack wrote:
HollynLA wrote:Much of LA went to bed last night thinking this was going to central TX, the storm is steadily defying the forecast points by going to NE of the point. I really fear that this storm will take LA by surprise, there wouldn't be much time to get out at this point.


WE CANT

It is too late.


There is still time to head east to Florida panhandle, Pensacola-Destin.
I think after the 10am advisory comes out with the shift eastward and possible hurricane warnings-then things will go insane.
Were evacuee friendly here in the Niceville and Destin areas, Come for a visit.


How would we get there? A lot of the main routes are closed down/messed up due to Katrina.
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#84 Postby TampaFl » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:40 am

stormspotter wrote:Central La is under the gun as we can all see based on latest sat loops and unfortunately this is worse of a situation since La. is not ready to respond. The unfortunate thing is Fox and CNN is still dwelling on a Texas hit....God help us all!



:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#85 Postby HollynLA » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:45 am

This is becoming a very serious situation if LA because the local stations aren't really talking about it, saying Galveston. I think it's pretty obvious that looking at the satellite loops that it's going to hit LA and catch alot of people off guard.
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#86 Postby crazycajuncane » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:09 am

stormspotter wrote:Central La is under the gun as we can all see based on latest sat loops and unfortunately this is worse of a situation since La. is not ready to respond. The unfortunate thing is Fox and CNN is still dwelling on a Texas hit....God help us all!


There ain't $hit many of us CAN do. All businesses are open today. Everything is running as usual... including schools.

I went to bed not like you guys are saying... I've been worried about this storm shifting more and more to the east over time. I'm just hoping not too much east. TX/LA border is as far east as we need it.

It's better if it just goes to Texas Coast.... at least they're out.
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#87 Postby Lori » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:18 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
Lori wrote:
TS Zack wrote:
HollynLA wrote:Much of LA went to bed last night thinking this was going to central TX, the storm is steadily defying the forecast points by going to NE of the point. I really fear that this storm will take LA by surprise, there wouldn't be much time to get out at this point.


WE CANT

It is too late.


There is still time to head east to Florida panhandle, Pensacola-Destin.
I think after the 10am advisory comes out with the shift eastward and possible hurricane warnings-then things will go insane.
Were evacuee friendly here in the Niceville and Destin areas, Come for a visit.


How would we get there? A lot of the main routes are closed down/messed up due to Katrina.


http://www.dot.gov/affairs/katrinahighwayinfo.htm
Last edited by Lori on Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#88 Postby cajungal » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:23 am

It is business as usual here. Kids off to school. Went talk to my neighbors about the shift east. They wrote it off last night thinking it was a Texas storm only. I did not want to panic them, but felt like they had to know what going on. They did not know nothing about the shift east! Now I hear the hum of neighbors checking out their generators once again!
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#89 Postby Lori » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:30 am

Troop L
St. Tammany Parish
Slidell

Posted: 08/31/2005
Closure Type: Weather Related
Street / Highway: I-10 wb is closed at Oak Harbor

I-10 Westbound is closed at the Oak Harbor Exit due to the extensive damage to the Twin Span. Traffic is being re-routed to HWY 11 West and US 90 West.

Road information link:

http://www.dot.gov/affairs/katrinahighwayinfo.htm
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#90 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:31 am

I've been telling folks here that it was looking more like a TX/LA border storm or even into LA central for the last 2 days. -and how that was the worst thing that could happen since everyone to the SW of that have already evacuated or are now turning all evac routes to the N, NW and W into gridlock. If LA now needs to evac, the roads are too crowded into those directions, plus every hotel is full, and has been since Katrina. To the east the roads have been heavily damaged in both directions, especially I10.
In addition, many areas are still without electricity and conserving their radio batteries. - so the word may not travel out in time that people need to evacuate. Look at all the folks that stayed or returned to their piles of debris that used to be their home. Many are in tarp tents. gas is still very hard to find in the area. How will these people mass evacuate?

Pray my friends. Rita is not just an encore to Katrina... time will show that Katrina was the pre-game show.
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#91 Postby skysummit » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:47 am

I-10 east is open to Metairie, La. After that it's closed due to the lockdown in New Orleans. For those heading east, take I-10 to Baton Rouge, then get on I-12 to Slidell, La., and again to either I-10 east toward Florida, or I-59 north toward Hattiesburg, Ms.
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#92 Postby cajungal » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:52 am

Yet all the models moved to the west again. She clearly looks to be moving more north than west. Weird. It may give SW LA or central LA a false sense of security.
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#93 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:56 am

I don't understand how the models have moved west when Rita keeps missing her forecasted points to the North.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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#94 Postby skysummit » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:58 am

Which models? I don't see any that updated yet this morning.
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#95 Postby cajungal » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:05 am

http://www.wunderground.com Skysummit, can you show us your list of spagetti models that you showed yesterday?
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#96 Postby skysummit » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:06 am

cajungal wrote:www.wunderground.com Skysummit, can you show us your list of spagetti models that you showed yesterday?


I'm waiting to make sure all of them have updated. I'll post it in a little while.
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#97 Postby skysummit » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:25 am

Here's my latest spaghetti plot.....ALL the models. Most of them are junk though, and a lot of them of old.

Image
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#98 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:30 am

She is tracking along the northern side of the guidance which leads me to believe the ridge building to her east has been underestimated.

Image
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#99 Postby mattpetre » Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:50 am

This is not an official forecast, just an intuitive guess using wetware.

I hate to say it, but with the current steering coditions, etc.... I personally have a feeling this storm is going almost as far east as Nola but is going to weaken to a Cat3.
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#100 Postby Wacahootaman » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:07 am

If that high stays put over Texas, accordin to that steering current map, she should move north and maybe even NE!

Obviously the NHC is aware of this chart so they must be factoring it in to their forcast track. They are slowly adjusting their track to the east.

That being said, if that high over Texas does move east as predicted then the NHC track will be right on.

Wonder if we will see Hurricane watches all the way to Mobile by tonite?
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