Not a wobble thread, but Rita will miss the next forecast pt

[Steve]

quite substantially unless she stairsteps back west. If the northward component of the movement is truly setting in, then in the words of an old DK's song, "We've got a bigger problem now." Extrapolating anticipated parabolic motions could leave one to believe Rita might even landfall east of Vermillion Bay and possibly into St. Mary or even Terrebonne Parish. That's well over 200 miles east of the latest NHC guidance and probably the eastern extremity of the landfall potential. But if you're anywhere from Orange, TX eastward to say Houma, you better doublecheck your plans and fill up your gas tank ASAP.

Plug in tropical forecast points if you have the right JAVA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Steve

[BamaMan]

quite substantially unless she stairsteps back west. If the northward component of the movement is truly setting in, then in the words of an old DK's song, "We've got a bigger problem now." Extrapolating anticipated parabolic motions could leave one to believe Rita might even landfall east of Vermillion Bay and possibly into St. Mary or even Terrebonne Parish. That's well over 200 miles east of the latest NHC guidance and probably the eastern extremity of the landfall potential. But if you're anywhere from Orange, TX eastward to say Houma, you better doublecheck your plans and fill up your gas tank ASAP.

Plug in tropical forecast points if you have the right JAVA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Steve

I agree Steve. She has been North of every NHC forecast point since yesterday afternoon at 4:00 PM, and seems to be continuing the same this morning. Unless she goes back to the W - WNW, things are going to start changing dramatically.

[aOl]

Nothin new... she has been missing points for the last 12 hours. She is most definitely moving due NW now and New Orleans, you are NOT out of the woods if this continues expect hurricane warnings issued all the way to the LA/MS line. Galveston and Houston are not gonna get much. So lucky.

If you take her going NNW after about 6 hours and due north just before landfall, central Louisiana gets hit and New Orleans get the east side, but outside of the hurricane force wind field.

[arlwx]

Even if it just held the 5 am- 8 am path, it would be coming in just west of Vermillion Bay. Please go fill up your car NOW and do contingency packing of your car, then check the 11 am (10 CDT) position to see if this is just a big scare for you ((or NOT)). If in doubt, GET OUT.

[skysummit]

This is going to give New Orleans a stronger surge then they're inticipating. The local media here is a bunch of fools. They can obviously see exactly what we've been seeing, but they're still telling us there's no need to worry.

People that seen this morning's news may be in for a shock by this evening when they get off of work.

[Javlin]

I agree Steve have been noticing this since last night somewhat.AFMet said last night she's feeling the ridge couple that with her slower speed.This may be pointing to possibily then erosion of the ridge with the weaker steering currents and slower forward speed.A landfall in LA being a possibility will not bode well for NO if this track continues for another 6-9 hrs.

[canetracker]

The pull more to the north can either be d/t the weakness in between the hi or this storm is just creating its own atmosphere. Either way, I am getting more concerned.

[Javlin]

This is going to give New Orleans a stronger surge then they're inticipating. The local media here is a bunch of fools. They can obviously see exactly what we've been seeing, but they're still telling us there's no need to worry.

People that seen this morning's news may be in for a shock by this evening when they get off of work.

This is when the local weather man steps in and says something contrary to the NHC.Our local Met did in Georges about 24 hrs out told us forget about NO it's coming here.

[cajungal]

quite substantially unless she stairsteps back west. If the northward component of the movement is truly setting in, then in the words of an old DK's song, "We've got a bigger problem now." Extrapolating anticipated parabolic motions could leave one to believe Rita might even landfall east of Vermillion Bay and possibly into St. Mary or even Terrebonne Parish. That's well over 200 miles east of the latest NHC guidance and probably the eastern extremity of the landfall potential. But if you're anywhere from Orange, TX eastward to say Houma, you better doublecheck your plans and fill up your gas tank ASAP.

Plug in tropical forecast points if you have the right JAVA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Steve

Terrebonne or St. Mary Parishes? I live in Terrebonne, the western part of Terrebonne at that! Yet, our local news stations are downplaying it. Still saying it is a Texas storm. The only good news I can get about my local area is on Channel 4 New Orleans weather forums.

[BamaMan]

This is going to give New Orleans a stronger surge then they're inticipating. The local media here is a bunch of fools. They can obviously see exactly what we've been seeing, but they're still telling us there's no need to worry.

People that seen this morning's news may be in for a shock by this evening when they get off of work.

This is when the local weather man steps in and says something contrary to the NHC.Our local Met did in Georges about 24 hrs out told us forget about NO it's coming here.

Well if this trend continues someone needs to step up and say something soon !!

[Ivanhater]

quite substantially unless she stairsteps back west. If the northward component of the movement is truly setting in, then in the words of an old DK's song, "We've got a bigger problem now." Extrapolating anticipated parabolic motions could leave one to believe Rita might even landfall east of Vermillion Bay and possibly into St. Mary or even Terrebonne Parish. That's well over 200 miles east of the latest NHC guidance and probably the eastern extremity of the landfall potential. But if you're anywhere from Orange, TX eastward to say Houma, you better doublecheck your plans and fill up your gas tank ASAP.

Plug in tropical forecast points if you have the right JAVA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Steve

Terrebonne or St. Mary Parishes? I live in Terrebonne, the western part of Terrebonne at that! Yet, our local news stations are downplaying it. Still saying it is a Texas storm. The only good news I can get about my local area is on Channel 4 New Orleans weather forums.

cajun, please have a back up plan! keep up to date, this could be a BIG change

[cajungal]

Actually, I told my boss last night that on my lunch break I was watching the storm. Everyone at work knows I am the weather fanatic and they all tease me! In fact, everyone asks me at work for weather updates. I told them I had a fear that this may go way further east than what they were saying earlier. When I told him that he thought I was nuts, and saying it ain't coming anywhere near here. And we are not closing the store! Probably just thought I wanted to get off work. Yeah, like I can afford to miss work!

[skysummit]

I'm really starting to hate our local mets this year. It seems like they get worse and worse each season.

[audioslave8]

If the track continues to move east LA is in big trouble. That means that central and eastern LA is on the right side of the storm. That means major tornado outbreaks and she will have alot of those. There will be more rainbands and storm surge for NO. They do not need that. If there is any good news though its the sheer seems to be pretty bad to the north. In my opinion I think she will be like Hugo when she comes ashore. She should weaken quite a bit. Hugo was no baby though. I know I was in him. The storm surge will be still be terrible especially since its been a CAT5 for so long and stirred up the gulf with big waves. Even if she weakens alot it does not matter now. the storm surge will be like a top CAT4 even if shes only a 3.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm becoming VERY concerned. I can't believe she's practically heading NW this morning, and this isn't a wobble. Just made phone calls to family members in the area telling them to prepare for hurricane conditions tomorrow night.

[cajungal]

I was on the right side of Andrew when he came ashore around Morgan City. I rode him out at home. Scariest experience of my life. We got sustained winds of 100 mph with much higher gusts. If this thing comes anywhere near Morgan City, which is only 25 miles to my due west, my experience with Andrew will look like nothing!

[mvtrucking]

Hopefully she starts back west soon. (I hate to wish that on Texas but they have eveacuated). It will be interesting to see the models at the 18Z later today. Big change?

[HouTXmetro]

Well she is wobbling back west.

[zoeyann]

OMG I am inl a coastal area and everyone includin hubby is treating me like I am am idiot for packing. The media keeps saying we are not going to get much but alot of people I trust on these boards are telling to be very cautouis in SELA because it may come close enough to flood us. I am so confused, but these people have never steered me wrong before so I still packing

[aOl]

OMG I am inl a coastal area and everyone includin hubby is treating me like I am am idiot for packing. The media keeps saying we are not going to get much but alot of people I trust on these boards are telling to be very cautouis in SELA because it may come close enough to flood us. I am so confused, but these people have never steered me wrong before so I still packing

I'm thinking Houma and Morgan City are gonna get it the worst. I expect you to be under a hurricane warning in the near future.