Shear now eroding Rita

[NorthGaWeather]

Lightning is also observed, and that can me one of two things: it's weakening or it's strengthening, in which case it's weakening.

So you know for a fact its weakening. I have seen nothing to support that.

[ohiostorm]

That's a pretty arrogant remark to make before you even see the evidence.

Who is this remark towards?

[NorthGaWeather]

That's a pretty arrogant remark to make before you even see the evidence.

What evidence?

[wxmann_91]

Lightning is also observed, and that can me one of two things: it's weakening or it's strengthening, in which case it's weakening.

So you know for a fact its weakening. I have seen nothing to support that.

I don't know that it's a fact, after all I'm only an amateur and these are my observations, they may be wrong, I hope thought that I'm right.

Anyway, the lightning thing was posted during a thread about Hurricane Emily, how she had a lot of lightning right before making landfall on the Yucatan, and she was weakening at that time.

Latest shear maps that show the anticyclone just to the south of the eye of Rita:

[BReb]

"if it were shear this would not be the sub 900mb MONSTER we are seeing right now."

Ok, then what's your theory as to why the outflow to the west and southwest of Rita suddenly vaporized between 200 z and 315 z? And as noted in the 11 pm advisory, reduced outflow causes steady, not dramatic weakening.

[ohiostorm]

But then again some of the clouds wont be picked up due to the elipse. Lets wait till the sun comes up to make our decisions. You cant really base anything on this just yet. Especially when convection is comtinually growing in the center.

[NorthGaWeather]

"if it were shear this would not be the sub 900mb MONSTER we are seeing right now."

Ok, then what's your theory as to why the outflow to the west and southwest of Rita suddenly vaporized between 200 z and 315 z? And as noted in the 11 pm advisory, reduced outflow causes steady, not dramatic weakening.

It hasn't weakened, so I don't see your point. BTW, the weakening, when it begins will be slow. The outflow channel didn't "vaporized".

[ohiostorm]

The outflow is still there. The convection has just died a little which is common.

[Huckster]

Even if the storm is still strengthening, it's still likely to weaken some before landfall. Either way, a hit from a major hurricane, probably cat. 4, is likely. People are going to die and billions of dollars in damage are going to soon be done. Let's pray to the Lord for everyone in its path and not get so darned argumentative about a little SW shear.

[FunkMasterB]

It's clear that there is less of a "feeder band" on the SW side than there used to be, but I don't know that it's sheer.

My hypothesis is that the SW side of Rita is interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula. That air isn't as moist as the air over the open Gulf, hence no strong feeder band. What we're seeing is only temporary and won't affect things in the long run, after Rita gets away from the Yucatan.

[wxmann_91]

Even if the storm is still strengthening, it's still likely to weaken some before landfall. Either way, a hit from a major hurricane, probably cat. 4, is likely. People are going to die and billions of dollars in damage are going to soon be done. Let's pray to the Lord for everyone in its path and not get so darned argumentative about a little SW shear.

Agreed.

And thus I bid Good Night. Godspeed to all those who are in the path of this storm.

[superfly]

The storm is no longer strengthening. Looks like it's holding steady, but sat pics aren't as impressive as before the blackout.

[crazycajuncane]

Even if the storm is still strengthening, it's still likely to weaken some before landfall. Either way, a hit from a major hurricane, probably cat. 4, is likely. People are going to die and billions of dollars in damage are going to soon be done. Let's pray to the Lord for everyone in its path and not get so darned argumentative about a little SW shear.

you said what i was thinking..... thank you

[ohiostorm]

I agree and bid my farewell for the night (or morning). I will be back after some sleep. Prayers to those in her path as she gets closer. Evac if you can now before its too late. Remember Katrina.

[f5]

can we just drop an iceberg onto the eye?

[camilletider]

I never said it would be long term, that was actually the main thing I was trying to get from a Met if they knew. You will need to look at NRL images from G-10 taken after the G-12 eclipse. It is being repeatedly stated that it can't be because of the pressure. Yes, a pressure that has bombed for 24 or more hours has abrubtly stopped inspite of predictions of further possible strengthening. If the shear stops the storm will recover to some degree maybe all the way. If it does not the pressure is going to rise markedly and will show by the next recon. But make no mistake, the 0530z image shows a clearly altered CDO on the NW side and the shear from the SW is there. It may not be in a few hours but it is in the afore mentioned span.

[BReb]

Here's the 6:45 z image:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

compare that to the 3:15 z image before the eclipse and you can see there is FAR less of the red coloring on the west and south sides of the storm. Plus, you can see she's lost a lot of the "tail" that she was carrying around on her south side (excuse my expert terminology).

I'm hardly an expert, but if this isn't shear and weakening I don't know what you'd call it.

[camilletider]

Now were talking. This is more of what I was after to start with. What if I am right about the CDO erosion but what if its interaction with the Yucatan. Imagine that, an exchange of ideas and thanks to others who did the same. To the always helpful "lock and delete before I have to think about something" I sure your other 472 posts were a little more useful.

[NorthGaWeather]

I see little to no hint of shear. Looks like a very impressive storm after the eclipse.

[NorthGaWeather]

Now were talking. This is more of what I was after to start with. What if I am right about the CDO erosion but what if its interaction with the Yucatan. Imagine that, an exchange of ideas and thanks to others who did the same. To the always helpful "lock and delete before I have to think about something" I sure your other 472 posts were a little more useful.

Hopefully your 28 or so were too.