Shear now eroding Rita

[camilletider]

Its very apparent from SW and seems to have started somewhere around 0200z or after. I had not seen any mention of shear expected at this point. Is this long term or a short effect of whatever the models have been picking up that would eventually move her North and it has just started early? Asking the mets or whomever feels like they have a handle on this.

[ohiostorm]

I think the storm is just getting tighter which means strengthening. Doesnt look like sheer to me. No mention of any sheer in the discussion.

[PTrackerLA]

Don't know why you would say that I don't think we're even out of the eclipse yet.

[skysummit]

Are you smoking something? How can you even tell when we've been in the eclipse for the past 2 hours?

[PTrackerLA]

Are you smoking something? How can you even tell when we've been in the eclipse for the past 2 hours?

I just wish it would hurry up and end I need to get to bed!

[superfly]

[ohiostorm]

If you look at the Gulf and Carr IR loop... the SW part of the storm is growing. IF anything looks like its sheered it would be the NW part of the storm.

[calidoug]

Its very apparent from SW and seems to have started somewhere around 0200z or after. I had not seen any mention of shear expected at this point. Is this long term or a short effect of whatever the models have been picking up that would eventually move her North and it has just started early? Asking the mets or whomever feels like they have a handle on this.

This thread should be locked and deleted.

Shear eroding Rita? At 898mb, just measured?

[BReb]

I see what he's talking about- some of the feeder bands and/or outflow on the southwest quadrant do seem to disappear between 200 z and 315 z when the eclipse kicked in. Not sure if that's because of shear, but I do see what he's referring to.

[Starburst]

What time is the eclipse over?

[corpusbreeze]

When will the eclipse end?

[camilletider]

I think my second hand smoke got in your eyes. I've seen your posts all over but you missed the posts about going the NRL site, LOL. They post a good IR from G-10 during the blackout. Go take a look and you will see what I mean. I thought for sure the pressure from the new recon was going to be really interesting and when it wasn't any lower I went and took a good look and sure enough the CDO is being eroded as well as the outflow restricted. It was not like this earlier tonight. It is not all that drastic yet but it will be if it continues. This could be the break everyone is hoping for as it will at least back Rita down some and perhaps minimize some longer term effects already buildings such as waves and impact on offshore facilities. I am just laying this out for some Mets, I hope, to comment on.

[skysummit]

It's just a little affect from that ULL in the southwestern gulf, but it won't do much to Rita. It's been kind of pushing the tops north from her southwestern outflow almost all day. It's NOT getting eroded by shear though.

[ohiostorm]

Lets just go to bed and look at her in the morning.

[skysummit]

Lets just go to bed and look at her in the morning.

It is the morning!

[wxmann_91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks for posting this. I noticed this also but didn't wanted to post this. It looks like Rita is getting squashed.

What I think is causing this is a slight movement of the anticyclone to the south. So, instead of helping to ventilate it, the anticyclone is now inducing some southwesterly shear into it. This is now enhancing the poleward outflow channel but restricting the equatorial outflow channel, just as Stewart noted in his disco, thus a weakening should begin. The latest vortex indicates a slightly moister eye and a 1 degree drop in the temperature spread between inside and outside the eye. Lightning is also observed, and that can me one of two things: it's weakening or it's strengthening, in which case it's weakening.

Let's hope this trend continues. But residents along the Gulf Coast must realize that they are still staring down into the eye of a STILL VERY DANGEROUS AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE EVEN IF IT WEAKENS TO A CAT 3 OR 4, and if they are in the cone of uncertainty, they should heed the authorities and evacuate if told so!!! (wanted to put this in case someone inadvertantly shouts "storm cancel", also put in the disclaimer)

[FunkMasterB]

Ahhhhh...sounds like someone in Ohio is getting sweeeeepy...

There is a full update in 1 hour, 20 minutes.

[ohiostorm]

Look at the floater... the only thing changing is the convection near the edges. The tops are warmer there but getting colder near the center and expanding from the eye. Its getting stronger, not weakening.

Sorry yes it is morning and yes I am getting sleepy.

[camilletider]

That's a pretty arrogant remark to make before you even see the evidence.

[f5]

if it were shear this would not be the sub 900mb MONSTER we are seeing right now.