GFS Even Further EAST

[skysummit]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

[bayoubebe]

Can you please explain to this non-pro, non-meteorologist what that is?

I can't make a thing out of it.

[skysummit]

Can you please explain to this non-pro, non-meteorologist what that is?

I can't make a thing out of it.

The GFS model breaks down the ridge sooner and brings Rita closer to the TX/LA border for landfall. Right now, it's the eastern most outlier.

[wayoutfront]

[MGC]

Looks like the GFS is forecasting a landfall near the Tx/La line......MGC

[Pebbles]

This is a model map. You see that bright red target looking thing by the coast of TX.. that where the model is predicting landfal will occure

[x-y-no]

Yeah ... this run is breaking down the ridge faster, so it's quicker to the coast and further north.

0z NOGAPS has also shifted right, not this far, but right about on the NHC forecast track.

[bayoubebe]

Thank you.

When I initially clicked on the link, all that showed up was a small picture of yellow and browns(in other words the top part).

I can actually see the states now.

[tw861]

I was looking at that, appears to bring her in between High Island and Port Arthur.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

However, it seems to move her NW from the beginning which as of now she's not doing. So this run may be too far east, might be up to it's old tricks of weakening the ridge too and much too fast.

But from the perspective of a Houston area resident I like it.

[skysummit]

The NOGAPS has also shifted right...pretty much right over the Houston area now.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... sf&tau=060

[cajungal]

Skysummit, it looks like we may be both right on an early guess of Tx/LA border landfall. That was my prediction from yesterday. As big as the storm is, you and I can experience some nasty conditions as well in Terrebonne Parish.

[LAwxrgal]

Dang and I sent my sister (Houston area) to Lafayette. If this pans out Lafayette would get hurricane force winds...

I don't think it will, I think GFS is breaking down the ridge too early.

[Brent]

Too far east IMO... typical GFS.

[skysummit]

Skysummit, it looks like we may be both right on an early guess of Tx/LA border landfall. That was my prediction from yesterday. As big as the storm is, you and I can experience some nasty conditions as well in Terrebonne Parish.

Yea, there's a possibility we could be correct, but I'm thinking (or hoping) that my be just s little too far east. She would have to be moving more NW right now.....but she may be doing so since we don't have satellite to verify.

HURRY UP ECLIPSE!!!!

[x-y-no]

Too far east IMO... typical GFS.

I'm pretty confident this track is too far right as you say. But this, together with the new NOGAPS, lends credence to the latest NHC track.

[deltadog03]

they also intialized on a NW heading....wrong..

[tw861]

Too far east IMO... typical GFS.

I'm pretty confident this track is too far right as you say. But this, together with the new NOGAPS, lends credence to the latest NHC track.

I agree, do the loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

and its pretty obvious that the model has her moving NW from the start, and thats not happening.

[Brent]

Too far east IMO... typical GFS.

I'm pretty confident this track is too far right as you say. But this, together with the new NOGAPS, lends credence to the latest NHC track.

I like the NHC track... not the GFS.

[Starburst]

Why would the NHC have adjusted the track more to the right if they did not think the model was correct though? Looks as if they are pretty confident that this thing is going into Houston/Galveston.

[dwg71]

Why would the NHC have adjusted the track more to the right if they did not think the model was correct though? Looks as if they are pretty confident that this thing is going into Houston/Galveston.

they had it at matagorda for a long time, models will shift again. East or west, its a given.

still 48-hours till landfall.

thats 8 more runs.