This is a Lake Charles, LA storm, IMO

[amawea]

What did I say at HouTXmetro's post. It is going to the lowest pressures.
Amawea

[jasons2k]

Anyone notice here not a SINGLE pro met has posted in this thread?? That alone should tell you something. It's not going to LA.

[dwg71]

Anyone notice here not a SINGLE pro met has posted in this thread?? That alone should tell you something. It's not going to LA.

Agreed, its been getting back all that it got north.
currently last 2 frames its going wsw.

[sea oat]

As someone pointed out somewhere in the threads, this hurricane is as far out as Katrina was when they were calling for the Big Bend area of FL. It's a wait and see game at this point. From my untrianed eye watching the water vapor and the northward component I have to agree that it may hit La.

[Air Force Met]

Anyone notice here not a SINGLE pro met has posted in this thread?? That alone should tell you something. It's not going to LA.

Agreed, its been getting back all that it got north.
currently last 2 frames its going wsw.

Hmmm..think I read it might job WSW somewhere.

BTW...expect the track to shift to Freeport at 10PM

[dwg71]

Anyone notice here not a SINGLE pro met has posted in this thread?? That alone should tell you something. It's not going to LA.

Agreed, its been getting back all that it got north.
currently last 2 frames its going wsw.

Hmmm..think I read it might job WSW somewhere.

BTW...expect the track to shift to Freeport at 10PM

Yeah and its quite impressive, since 6:45 CST, its headed 260 or so. Thats 2.5 hours. Its not like NHC to jump like that, I hope they jump as far back west at 4:00 AM. Lets hope the ridge it tough and keeps it heading WSW for about 6 hours or so.

[dwg71]

Anyone notice here not a SINGLE pro met has posted in this thread?? That alone should tell you something. It's not going to LA.

Agreed, its been getting back all that it got north.
currently last 2 frames its going wsw.

Hmmm..think I read it might job WSW somewhere.

BTW...expect the track to shift to Freeport at 10PM

Yeah and its quite impressive, since 6:45 CST, its headed 260 or so. Thats 2.5 hours. Its not like NHC to jump like that, I hope they jump as far back west at 4:00 AM. Lets hope the ridge it tough and keeps it heading WSW for about 6 hours or so.

[Air Force Met]

Anyone notice here not a SINGLE pro met has posted in this thread?? That alone should tell you something. It's not going to LA.

Agreed, its been getting back all that it got north.
currently last 2 frames its going wsw.

Hmmm..think I read it might job WSW somewhere.

BTW...expect the track to shift to Freeport at 10PM

[mtm4319]

Anyone notice here not a SINGLE pro met has posted in this thread?? That alone should tell you something. It's not going to LA.

Agreed, its been getting back all that it got north.
currently last 2 frames its going wsw.

Hmmm..think I read it might job WSW somewhere.

BTW...expect the track to shift to Freeport at 10PM

NHC takes it about 15 miles NE of Freeport in their 10pm CDT advisory.

[cajungal]

My first predicton was LA/TX border. I heard Steve Lyons say they may have to shift the hurricane watches further easterward. Just as I was fixing to write it off, I am a bit more nervous tonight.

[PTrackerLA]

Well we're now in the eclipse so we won't really know which way she is jogging until the early morning hours.

[SoupBone]

Yeah the WSW jogging is kinda weird....this thing is all over the place. It does look to be right back on track though.

[dwg71]

Yeah the WSW jogging is kinda weird....this thing is all over the place. It does look to be right back on track though.

Maybe when its over, it will have continued the path.

[fci]

I am watching those steering charts too rocky. Looks like a weakness has formed in the ridge over the Fla panhandle.

Yes, but isn't the ridge over TX supposed to slide east. If this weakness persisted, the whole fl panhandle/west coast would be at risk - gotta trust nhc on this one.

We will just have to wait and see. I couldn't fathom the NHC blowing a foecast that bad.

So far, the NHC has nailed the track perfectly.
I don't see a reason to doubt them now.

[amawea]

You know what, I don't give a damn if a pro has posted. I have studied every book, and every site you can possibly find since I was 10 years old on the weather. I am right with this storm. Do a search on my post today.
Sorry, if this offends the pro's
Amawea

[bayoubebe]

All mets around here are saying central Texas coast up to Galveston. No mention of it coming up this way - just tropical storm force conditions expected here.

If you are around Lake Charles, which is in sw LA., then that's not what I've been hearing., even from our N.O. meteorologist.

I have heard hurricane conditions there as of late.

Even if it hits Galveston, you're still going to get some of it and it won't be too pretty from what I hear.

I'm surprised there are no evacuations going on there.

[LaBreeze]

There are voluntary evacuations in Calcasieu Parish (Lake Charles) and here in Vermilion Parish. Cameron Parish is under mandatory evac. We're waiting to see and take action tomorrow if necessary.

[Jagno]

Okay folks, I live in Lake Charles and yes, we have been evacuated as of 2:00 p.m. today. I am currently posting from Prarieville, Louisiana which is where my youngest son and I are staying at a friends house. My husband and both of my oldest sons have to remain in Lake Charles for emergency response. My stomach is in knots leaving behind 3 members of my family and seeing what this hurricaine is doing. Please do not take chances and GET OUT. The traffic was bumper to bumper from Lake Charles through Baton Rouge and took 4 1/2 hours non-stop.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Interesting...I'm reading around tonight, and it appears, Brad Panovich has been watching the same thing as me. Here are his thoughts from the weather forum at http://www.wwltv.com .

Weather geek stuff….There is clearly a small weakness over AR, Northern MS and Western TN. This is having a small impact on Rita, but this doesn’t appear to be the only thing working on her. The upper low over the Bay of Campeche is also adding in a slight northern jog. I don’t feel either of these is strong enough to turn the storm towards SELA. But with the turn starting sooner then later I am concerned again this evening after wavering this morning… I am back to the TX/LA border area. Lake Charles be ready!!!!!!

Let’s get to some intensity stuff, she will clearing be a strong Cat 5 tonight and may slightly weaken tomorrow. I don’t see her weaken more then a Cat 4 before landfall. Which means she will have a huge surge because of her time as a Cat 5 tonight and tomorrow and maintaining Cat. 4 strength until landfall the surge will be built up. That means areas From Corpus Christi to Lafayette need to be ready for a potentially huge storm surge. Areas from Assumption Parish right thought the tidal lakes will have above normal tides and a surge possible as high at 6-7’. She big and pushing a lot of water. On top of that SELA needs to be on guard fro heavy flooding rains and possible tornadoes. All of this we could normally handle, but with the weaken state of the levee systems, pumping station and structural damage it will make thing harder to deal with. Due to her immense size and strength if you live near the water I would error on the side of safety even in SELA.

Track forecast still seems on track but, worry that such a large powerful storm can never be handled well by numerical modeling. That along with this ever so slight WNW movement now for about 3-5 hours makes me lean right of the NHC forecast track. I think Galveston to Lake Charles should treat this as a mandatory evac from a Cat. 5 storm.

Unfortunately this has potential to be as bad as Katrina, the one determinating factor is will Rita hit a vulnerable and highly populated area? If she were to stay more West she could hit parts of the Central or Southern Texas coast which are very sparsely populated and have little infrastruce to destroy. Hurricane Bret a Cat 3 in 1999 did this and cause very little damage in Texas. But sadly that doesn’t look to be the case here.

Listen folk if you live in the Hurricane Watch area get out of the way of the water and be prepared for severe wind damage in-land. If you live in the Tropical storm watch area in La be ready to go inland and get ready for a last second get away. Just because of her size and strength again prepare for the worse and pray for the best!

More to come later!

Brad
_________________
Brad Panovich
Meteorologist
WCNC & WWL TV
Charlotte, NC and New Orleans, LA

Back to top

[crazycajuncane]

Interesting...I'm reading around tonight, and it appears, Brad Panovich has been watching the same thing as me. Here are his thoughts from the weather forum at http://www.wwltv.com .

Weather geek stuff….There is clearly a small weakness over AR, Northern MS and Western TN. This is having a small impact on Rita, but this doesn’t appear to be the only thing working on her. The upper low over the Bay of Campeche is also adding in a slight northern jog. I don’t feel either of these is strong enough to turn the storm towards SELA. But with the turn starting sooner then later I am concerned again this evening after wavering this morning… I am back to the TX/LA border area. Lake Charles be ready!!!!!!

Let’s get to some intensity stuff, she will clearing be a strong Cat 5 tonight and may slightly weaken tomorrow. I don’t see her weaken more then a Cat 4 before landfall. Which means she will have a huge surge because of her time as a Cat 5 tonight and tomorrow and maintaining Cat. 4 strength until landfall the surge will be built up. That means areas From Corpus Christi to Lafayette need to be ready for a potentially huge storm surge. Areas from Assumption Parish right thought the tidal lakes will have above normal tides and a surge possible as high at 6-7’. She big and pushing a lot of water. On top of that SELA needs to be on guard fro heavy flooding rains and possible tornadoes. All of this we could normally handle, but with the weaken state of the levee systems, pumping station and structural damage it will make thing harder to deal with. Due to her immense size and strength if you live near the water I would error on the side of safety even in SELA.

Track forecast still seems on track but, worry that such a large powerful storm can never be handled well by numerical modeling. That along with this ever so slight WNW movement now for about 3-5 hours makes me lean right of the NHC forecast track. I think Galveston to Lake Charles should treat this as a mandatory evac from a Cat. 5 storm.

Unfortunately this has potential to be as bad as Katrina, the one determinating factor is will Rita hit a vulnerable and highly populated area? If she were to stay more West she could hit parts of the Central or Southern Texas coast which are very sparsely populated and have little infrastruce to destroy. Hurricane Bret a Cat 3 in 1999 did this and cause very little damage in Texas. But sadly that doesn’t look to be the case here.

Listen folk if you live in the Hurricane Watch area get out of the way of the water and be prepared for severe wind damage in-land. If you live in the Tropical storm watch area in La be ready to go inland and get ready for a last second get away. Just because of her size and strength again prepare for the worse and pray for the best!

More to come later!

Brad
_________________
Brad Panovich
Meteorologist
WCNC & WWL TV
Charlotte, NC and New Orleans, LA

Back to top

With all the talk of a Texas hit... All I been hearing here in Lafayette is.... it's not coming here... it's going to Texas.... it's not coming here.

I don't think Lafayette will have to worry about the eye, but what DOES worry me is if this thing hits TX/LA border or anythingeast of that (Lake Charles) is the effects of the east side of the storm.

Katrina did not bother me much at all and EVERYONE was flipping out about it.

We've been fortunate to be on the west side of many storms. We've never dealt with the east side of a major cane.

I'm starting to worry about flooding and tornadoes and all that.

The more this thing heads north each time the more I get worried about the effects.