This is a Lake Charles, LA storm, IMO

[amawea]

Man, look at HouTXmetro's post this morning. I have been watching the pressures all over Tx and La all day. Man! Never Mind!!!!
Amawea

[Ivanhater]

The farthest northern edge of the cone has it crossing 25N around 88W.
At the current heading its going to cross 25N near 87.5N. That edge has center crossing 120 miles into LA.

If it holds this course for another 4-6 hours, I think many people are going to be caught off guard.

Isnt it Neal Frank that says landfall is outside the 72 hour cone 30% of the time.

Lets wait and see.

so are you in tune with me now dwg on lousiana?

[Mac]

You have to agree though Mac, for all of what we have been through and now there is another cat 5 in the Gulf southeast of LA it is very disturbing watching her wooble her way more to the north by the hour when everyone is saying Texas. What do you see as a major latitude point at which she crosses 90' west to be a big factor for us here?

Not that my opinion matters any more than anybody else's...

...but I think she's going to continue to head mostly west with some WNW stair-stepping until she approaches 95W. And I think the high is going to recede from west to east. Just before she gets to 95W, I think she is going to start heading NNW. If the high recedes fairly quickly, I think she'll actually bend back to the NE a bit, making landfall close to Port Arthur. If the high recedes a little more gradually--which is what I think will occur--it's going to take her right into Galveston. And at a nearly perpendicular angle to the coastline, making for an unimaginable storm surge.

[dwg71]

The farthest northern edge of the cone has it crossing 25N around 88W.
At the current heading its going to cross 25N near 87.5N. That edge has center crossing 120 miles into LA.

If it holds this course for another 4-6 hours, I think many people are going to be caught off guard.

Isnt it Neal Frank that says landfall is outside the 72 hour cone 30% of the time.

Lets wait and see.

so are you in tune with me now dwg on lousiana?

I'm not believing what I am seeing at this point. Im dumbfounded. If it sustains this course, that means there is a weakness and its not goint to move back due west. Its also seems to be slowing down??

[skysummit]

Look at the northwestern edge of the outflow. It looks like it's hitting against the high or something...it's beginning to flatten out. God I hope these are just wobbles.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

dwg, are you being serious, or just making fun at others opinions? The reason I ask is becasue your posts have been so set on a central tx hit.

[amawea]

It is a Galveston hit. That's just my opinion. I am basing it on the lowest pressures I have been plotting since 8 am this morning. Take a look at the central Gulf coast pressures. They started dropping at 12 central time and the lowest pressures were around Galveston to Lake Charles.
Amawea

[Mac]

Of course it will end up hitting Galveston/Houston. Why? Because that's the worst case scenario, and we all know that this year is all about worst case scenarios panning out. A direct hit on Galveston/Houston means many more deaths, millions homeless, higher gas prices, more economic devastation on a nation-wide basis.

Assuming it was going to hit somewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast, the best case scenario might be for it to hit New Orleans. The city is already fairly well destroyed, most of the population has already evacuated, and FEMA is already on station. [okay, that was a little dark humor to break the tension...no stone-throwing please]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

skysummitt, what do you think will be the implications if she continues on this type of course through the night. Earlier recurving, faster turn,? Something tells me these are more than wobbles. It has been going on since early afternoon.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Well, one thing's for sure; it's going to have to bend back to due west or even a tad south of due west to hit that next forecast point. Just my 2 cents, but I'm think more of a TX/LA line type of scenario.

[dwg71]

I cant believe the roller coaster ride, Rita is giving us. It is already 40-50 miles north of next point. I guess we will have to go to plan b.

[skysummit]

skysummitt, what do you think will be the implications if she continues on this type of course through the night. Earlier recurving, faster turn,? Something tells me these are more than wobbles. It has been going on since early afternoon.

Oh Gosh Cyclone...I don't even want to think about it. Hopefully they're just wobbles. It now looks like it wobbled west again. There are talks of that high splitting though.

[LaBreeze]

and plan B is...?? Suggestions.

[LaBreeze]

Where is the high splitting?

[gboudx]

Yeah can you provide a link where there's talk of the high splitting?

I notice that no prof met has posted on this thread. I'd like to hear their expert opinion on this SWLA prediction, and high splitting.

[skysummit]

I don't have links showing the high splitting....just on here and on CNN they mentioned it about an hour ago.

[gboudx]

I don't have links showing the high splitting....just on here and on CNN they mentioned it about an hour ago.

Sorry to hold your feet to the fire like this, but a huge change in the NHC's forecasted path, like what is predicted on this thread, is not trivial.

If you read posts concerning the high splitting, do you remember if this was an amateur's opinion of what they perceive charts to show, or was it a pro who knows that their looking at?

[Wacahootaman]

For the high splitting possibility, go to this steering current link.

Go to the bottom row of thumbnails for lower than 940 mp sea level pressure and click on the first thumbnail to get the real time data.

Then go to the right end of the column for 18 hours earlier and it seems that the high may be splitting or weakening in the middle.

But I am a rank amateur so I am just guessing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

[skysummit]

The people who mentioned it on here likely know how to read charts better than I do I didn't think much about it, but when I heard it on CNN, I started to wonder.

[gboudx]

Thanks for the link Wacahootaman. As a rank amateur too, the high appears to be shifting eastward towards LA in the most recent chart. But again, I'm just guessing. I guess I'll find out in the morning when I log back on.