Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HurricaneGirl]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Look at the eye!

[jasons2k]

Zach, Derek, or a Pro Met, can you please tell us amateurs what you are talking about? I know that's high up in the atmosphere, but I didn't understand what Derek meant by far northward and a Typhoon. Thanks.

[mtm4319]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Looks like an eye is starting to show up on the IR loop.

Whoa, that cleared out in a hurry.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like Floyd did when it was a strengthening Category Four storm approaching the Bahamas in 1999... getting much better organized...

[arcticfire]

Zach, Derek, or a Pro Met, can you please tell us amateurs what you are talking about? I know that's high up in the atmosphere, but I didn't understand what Derek meant by far northward and a Typhoon. Thanks.

I agree , I would like to hear what makes what they are talking about special.

[CronkPSU]

Zack, Derek, or a Pro Met, can you please tell us amateurs what you are talking about? I know that's high up in the atmosphere, but I didn't understand what Derek meant by far northward and a Typhoon. Thanks.

i hope someone does because i am envisioning real bad things

a typhoon like feature in the GOM...are we talking Tip-like??? something bigger than katrina which pretty much took up all of the GOM???

[mtm4319]

Zack, Derek, or a Pro Met, can you please tell us amateurs what you are talking about? I know that's high up in the atmosphere, but I didn't understand what Derek meant by far northward and a Typhoon. Thanks.

i hope someone does because i am envisioning real bad things

a typhoon like feature in the GOM...are we talking Tip-like??? something bigger than katrina which pretty much took up all of the GOM???

Nothing in the Gulf of Mexico will become the size of Tip.

[krysof]

Well the interaction with the strong high will probably cause Rita to expand more, at least that's what I think, I predict Katrina size, probably not intensity wise, that only happens once or twice in our lifetimes.

[CronkPSU]

recon found a 103 knots flight level wind

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 210027
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/00:09:50Z
B. 24 deg 00 min N
082 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2818 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 294 deg 086 kt
G. 213 deg 014 nm
H. 967 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1218A RITA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NW QUAD 22:34:30 Z



Pressure keeps going down fast.From 988 mbs to now 967 from this morning.

[Brent]

Zack, Derek, or a Pro Met, can you please tell us amateurs what you are talking about? I know that's high up in the atmosphere, but I didn't understand what Derek meant by far northward and a Typhoon. Thanks.

i hope someone does because i am envisioning real bad things

a typhoon like feature in the GOM...are we talking Tip-like??? something bigger than katrina which pretty much took up all of the GOM???

Nothing in the Gulf of Mexico will become the size of Tip.

The Gulf isn't big enough...

[HurricaneGirl]

I didn't think we would get spinoff rain up here, this far away. But we did get some tonight.

[CronkPSU]

Zack, Derek, or a Pro Met, can you please tell us amateurs what you are talking about? I know that's high up in the atmosphere, but I didn't understand what Derek meant by far northward and a Typhoon. Thanks.

i hope someone does because i am envisioning real bad things

a typhoon like feature in the GOM...are we talking Tip-like??? something bigger than katrina which pretty much took up all of the GOM???

Nothing in the Gulf of Mexico will become the size of Tip.

yeah i know, it was TIC but it sounds like he is talking about something bigger than katrina and maybe as powerful at landfall

[superfly]

Pressure keeps going down fast.From 988 mbs to now 967 from this morning.

It's dropped 23mb since 9AM this morning...rapid deepening.

[dwg71]

how far south did the GFDL shift south?

[Derek Ortt]

typhoons have 200mb cyclones

this means that the tropopause is expected to be very high up in the atmosphere, meaning that the mean temperature of the atmosphere is warmer than usual as indicated by the hypsometric equation. More energy for the cyclone

[WindRunner]

00Z models:

WHXX01 KWBC 210026
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE RITA (AL182005) ON 20050921 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050921 0000 050921 1200 050922 0000 050922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 82.7W 24.5N 84.9W 25.0N 86.8W 25.3N 88.4W
BAMM 24.0N 82.7W 24.5N 84.9W 24.8N 86.8W 25.0N 88.6W
A98E 24.0N 82.7W 24.2N 84.9W 24.5N 86.9W 25.1N 88.4W
LBAR 24.0N 82.7W 24.4N 85.1W 24.8N 87.4W 25.1N 89.5W
SHIP 90KTS 98KTS 106KTS 110KTS
DSHP 90KTS 98KTS 106KTS 110KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050923 0000 050924 0000 050925 0000 050926 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 90.1W 27.4N 93.6W 29.6N 95.5W 32.0N 94.5W
BAMM 25.3N 90.4W 25.9N 93.4W 28.2N 94.3W 31.8N 93.6W
A98E 26.0N 89.9W 27.5N 92.8W 29.6N 94.9W 31.4N 94.5W
LBAR 25.7N 91.5W 27.7N 94.9W 31.0N 96.5W 34.3N 94.2W
SHIP 112KTS 104KTS 91KTS 69KTS
DSHP 112KTS 104KTS 45KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 82.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 23.2N LONM24 = 77.2W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 105NM

[truballer#1]

[curtadams]

Take a look at water vapor of Gulf
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg
Outflow really expanding west towards upper-low in western Gulf also, moist air is moving ahead of storms path.

Well those goes that one hope that dry air would help keep it in check.

Dry air does little to major hurricanes at sea. They moisten up their intake by draggin it across hundreds of miles of hot stormy sea. She'll have trouble when she nears TX, but that's three days off.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So 200 millibar anticyclone gives the cyclone more energy. So they grow bigger in size + stronger like a typhoon?