Rita Recon Reports

[Solaris]

970 mb

[Scorpion]

2 mb an hour or so. Deepening getting quicker.

[JamesFromMaine2]

356
SXXX50 KNHC 202152
AF302 1218A RITA HDOB 27 KNHC
2141 2316N 08251W 03051 0053 305 043 082 082 044 03154 0000000000
2141. 2315N 08252W 03052 0057 306 044 082 082 045 03159 0000000100
2142 2314N 08254W 03043 0058 305 042 084 084 043 03152 0000000000
2142. 2312N 08255W 03049 0061 307 042 088 078 043 03160 0000000000
2143 2311N 08256W 03052 0062 303 042 080 080 044 03164 0000000000
2143. 2310N 08258W 03045 0063 306 044 064 064 048 03158 0000000100
2144 2309N 08259W 03045 0064 299 040 058 058 041 03159 0000000000
2144. 2308N 08300W 03053 0067 304 038 060 060 040 03170 0000000000
2145 2307N 08302W 03051 0069 313 041 064 064 042 03171 0000000000
2145. 2306N 08303W 03042 0071 311 039 068 068 040 03163 0000000000
2146 2304N 08304W 03050 0074 311 039 082 082 040 03174 0000000000
2146. 2303N 08306W 03051 0081 306 041 082 082 042 03182 0000000000
2147 2301N 08305W 03049 0081 306 042 072 072 042 03181 0000000000
2147. 2302N 08303W 03048 0078 301 039 078 078 040 03176 0000000000
2148 2303N 08301W 03045 0074 299 038 074 074 039 03170 0000000000
2148. 2304N 08300W 03047 0069 297 041 056 056 042 03167 0000000000
2149 2305N 08257W 03059 0067 291 041 064 064 044 03176 0000000100
2149. 2305N 08255W 03033 0067 290 042 064 064 045 03150 0000000100
2150 2306N 08253W 03054 0064 294 037 064 064 041 03168 0000000000
2150. 2306N 08251W 03047 0063 298 041 076 076 042 03160 0000000000

[superfly]

The northeast quad is not at 23.5/82 something west. If it was then this is not a 100 mph hurricane.

2114 2415N 08154W 03047 5074 125 085 136 094 088 03022 0000000000

24.2N 81.9W, winds out of 125 degrees, plane flying south and west through the center. You're telling me that's not NE quad? Learn how to read recon reports.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Where is this 100 knot/115 mph flight level winds to support the surface 100 mph?

[jkt21787]

Where is this 100 knot/115 mph flight level winds to support the surface 100 mph?

Discussion mentioned that was based on SFMR and Doppler Radar velocities, as well as a dropsonde report.

[Solaris]

971
WTNT63 KNHC 202131
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

BETWEEN 445 AND 5 PM EDT...AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM A HAM RADIO
OPERATOR INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 102 MPH
WERE MEASURED BY WIND EQUIPMENT IN THE KEY WEST AREA.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[superfly]

Where is this 100 knot/115 mph flight level winds to support the surface 100 mph?

I believe NHC upgraded it based on doppler radar data but there has never been flight level data to support 85kts surface winds.

[jkt21787]

Where is this 100 knot/115 mph flight level winds to support the surface 100 mph?

I believe NHC upgraded it based on doppler radar data but there has never been flight level data to support 85kts surface winds.

Yep...

Doppler radar can be very accurate. Remember recon can't cover every part of the storm, but the doppler velocities can show the entire storm.

[Brent]

FORECASTER STEWART

[JamesFromMaine2]

621
SXXX50 KNHC 202202
AF302 1218A RITA HDOB 28 KNHC
2151 2307N 08249W 03049 0061 292 044 074 074 047 03161 0000000000
2151. 2308N 08247W 03045 0060 290 043 086 084 043 03156 0000000000
2152 2308N 08245W 03050 0058 288 043 086 084 043 03158 0000000000
2152. 2309N 08243W 03047 0056 288 044 084 084 044 03153 0000000000
2153 2309N 08240W 03049 0053 284 044 082 082 045 03152 0000000000
2153. 2310N 08238W 03048 0051 282 045 076 076 045 03149 0000000000
2154 2311N 08236W 03048 0048 279 048 062 062 050 03147 0000000000
2154. 2311N 08234W 03047 0046 276 047 060 060 048 03143 0000000000
2155 2312N 08232W 03050 0044 279 051 064 064 052 03144 0000000000
2155. 2313N 08229W 03049 0040 279 054 066 066 055 03140 0000000000
2156 2313N 08227W 03048 0037 273 055 064 064 058 03135 0000000100
2156. 2314N 08225W 03048 0035 266 051 064 064 053 03134 0000000100
2157 2315N 08222W 03046 0033 267 055 064 064 055 03129 0000000100
2157. 2315N 08220W 03053 0033 265 059 064 064 059 03136 0000000100
2158 2315N 08218W 03044 0033 265 059 066 066 059 03127 0000000100
2158. 2315N 08215W 03047 0032 261 058 074 074 059 03129 0000000000
2159 2315N 08213W 03047 0030 254 057 078 078 058 03128 0000000000
2159. 2315N 08210W 03051 0029 257 058 074 074 059 03130 0000000000
2200 2315N 08208W 03048 0032 249 057 072 072 061 03131 0000000000
2200. 2314N 08206W 03047 0034 251 058 088 088 060 03131 0000000000

[artist]

could there be a calibration problem with something?

[superfly]

could there be a calibration problem with something?

No, flight level data supports 75 kts cane. 970mb supports 85-90kts but the winds could simply not have caught up to the pressure yet.

[swimaster20]

could there be a calibration problem with something?

No, flight level data supports 75 kts cane. 970mb supports 85-90kts but the winds could simply not have caught up to the pressure yet.

Radar data, however, does support 85-90kts.

[Brent]

Maybe the normal reductions do not apply???

It looks like a Cat 2, and radar indicates it's a Cat 2, so it's a Cat 2.

[superfly]

could there be a calibration problem with something?

No, flight level data supports 75 kts cane. 970mb supports 85-90kts but the winds could simply not have caught up to the pressure yet.

Radar data, however, does support 85-90kts.

Radar data does support 85kts. Scientifically speaking, I'd have to assume both instruments have margins of error so if I were to estimate the intensity, I'd take the average and go with 80kts.

[swimaster20]

could there be a calibration problem with something?

No, flight level data supports 75 kts cane. 970mb supports 85-90kts but the winds could simply not have caught up to the pressure yet.

Radar data, however, does support 85-90kts.

Radar data does support 85kts. Scientifically speaking, I'd have to assume both instruments have margins of error so if I were to estimate the intensity, I'd take the average and go with 80kts.

You do have a good point there.

[Derek Ortt]

NOAA place earlier had 96KT at 8500 feet. Easily supports category 2 intensity

[JamesFromMaine2]

94 flight level!

391
SXXX50 KNHC 202242
AF302 1218A RITA HDOB 32 KNHC
2231 2408N 08230W 03045 5154 057 040 164 080 041 02941 0000000000
2231. 2407N 08232W 03049 5151 053 043 164 086 048 02947 0000000000
2232 2408N 08234W 03048 5149 051 050 158 088 052 02949 0000000000
2232. 2409N 08235W 03048 5144 053 058 154 096 062 02953 0000000000
2233 2410N 08236W 03047 5134 050 066 130 110 067 02963 0000000000
2233. 2412N 08237W 03051 5122 048 075 116 116 083 02979 0000000000
2234 2413N 08239W 03045 5108 046 091 110 110 092 02987 0000000000
2234. 2414N 08240W 03049 5091 046 092 100 100 094 03008 0000000000
2235 2415N 08241W 03053 5076 047 088 100 100 091 03026 0000000000
2235. 2416N 08242W 03042 5063 046 080 096 096 081 03030 0000000000
2236 2417N 08244W 03049 5049 045 081 112 102 082 03050 0000000000
2236. 2419N 08245W 03048 5038 044 080 112 106 082 03059 0000000000
2237 2420N 08246W 03049 5029 046 080 104 104 081 03070 0000000000
2237. 2421N 08248W 03048 5020 049 079 094 094 080 03078 0000000000
2238 2422N 08249W 03050 5012 049 077 100 096 078 03088 0000000000
2238. 2423N 08250W 03048 5005 052 074 100 090 075 03093 0000000000
2239 2425N 08252W 03048 0002 054 072 106 090 072 03100 0000000000
2239. 2426N 08253W 03047 0008 055 071 096 096 073 03106 0000000000
2240 2427N 08255W 03048 0014 055 070 088 088 071 03112 0000000000
2240. 2428N 08256W 03049 0019 057 070 084 084 071 03118 0000000000

[jkt21787]

Hopefully that will answer the folks who may be questioning the 100 mph. Thats 97 mph surface and that's close enough as far as I'm concerned.