Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA REACHES 100 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Florida_TSR]

[chadtm80]

WOW.. That was QUICK

[loon]

she gets out in the open, and she likes it.....this could be a large storm.

[CaptinCrunch]

I will not be surprised if Rita matches Katrina in size and strenght. :surprised:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not be suprized my self....Just watch her bomb!

[Brent]

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA
CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA
CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA
MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST....BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Florida_TSR]

CAT 4 at landfall

[Brent]

Looks to be a hair farther west...

[Brent]

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

THERE ARE NO NEW DATA WHICH SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS SINCE THE 87-KNOT
PEAK SURFACE WIND MEASURED BY THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER...
THE 93-KNOT SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL...AND
ABOUT 100 KNOTS ON THE DOPPLER RADAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED WITH AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE AND AN IMPROVING
OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE RITA WITH A DEEP CIRCULATION UP TO 200 MB
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE LATTER WHICH BRINGS RITA TO 125 KNOTS.
HOWEVER SUCH INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

RITA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS...BY A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RITA TO
TURN GRADUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS
TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SPREAD
IS LARGER BUT MOST OF THE MODELS STILL BRING RITA TO THE TEXAS
COAST.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 24.0N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[Windy]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 202131
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

BETWEEN 445 AND 5 PM EDT...AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM A HAM RADIO OPERATOR INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 102 MPH WERE MEASURED BY WIND EQUIPMENT IN THE KEY WEST AREA.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT AS RITA MOVES FARTHER WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. THIS WARNING WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. THIS WARNING MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
NORTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS AND INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RITA
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL TO
MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...180 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS
A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 53 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST....BUT IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[HurricaneGirl]

[MiamiensisWx]

In addition, 103KT flight-level winds were just found in the eyewall, based on a very recent RECON report that just came in.[/quote]

[Brent]

110 mph and projected to reach 145 mph!!!

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z WED SEP 21 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
KEY WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EAST AND NORTH TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 83.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 83.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 85SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

I hope this doesn't become another Katrina, my prays and condolences go to the people in this monster's path.

[cycloneye]

[canegrl04]

If she hits anywhere near a big city,its over

[Brent]

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 14

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2005

...Rita rapidly strengthening as it passes south of Dry Tortugas...
...Changes made to Florida warnings...

at 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the
lower Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge westward to
Key West and Dry Tortugas.

At 11 PM EDT...the Hurricane Warning for the middle and upper
Florida Keys has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from
the Seven Mile Bridge east and north to Ocean Reef...including
Florida Bay.

At 11 PM EDT...all warnings have been discontinued for the Florida
Peninsula.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...and la Habana.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban province
of Pinar del Rio.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.1 north... longitude 83.2 west or about 45 miles...70
km... south-southwest of Dry Tortugas...about 95 miles... 150 km...
west-southwest of Key West Florida and about 80 miles... 130 km...
northwest of Havana Cuba.

Rita is moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr. This general
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours...which will
take Rita away from the Florida Keys and western Cuba and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning.

Data from the Key West NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds have
now increased to near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita
is a strong category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Rita is expected to become a category three hurricane Wednesday
morning... and reach category four strength by Wednesday evening.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km. During the past hour...a gust to 61 mph was
reported at the Key West International Airport...and a sustained
wind of 51 mph with a gust to 64 mph was reported at Dry Tortugas.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 965 mb...28.50 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are still possible in the
Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
Florida coast. Storm surge values will gradually decrease later
tonight and Wednesday in all areas.

Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida
Peninsula...with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches.
Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible over western Cuba
and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...with
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over portions of western Cuba.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible over South Florida and the
Florida Keys tonight and early Wednesday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...24.1 N... 83.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart