Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 200830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

PHILIPPE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER AMORPHOUS-
LOOKING MASS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE DEVELOPING SORT OF A COMMA SHAPE.
THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SECTORS OF THE
HURRICANE SUGGESTS SOME WESTERLY SHEARING...DUE TO THE FLOW AT THE
BASE OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF RITA. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO
DIAGNOSES SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT NONETHELESS PREDICTS SOME STRENGTHENING. THE OFFFICIAL
FORECAST SIMILARLY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH UP TO 48
HOURS...BUT GOES A FAIR AMOUNT BELOW SHIPS THEREAFTER BECAUSE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SIMPLY TOO STRONG FOR PHILIPPE TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BY THAT TIME.

I HAVE ESTIMATED THE CENTER TO BE WEST OF THE FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES...BOTH FOR CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
PRESENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR. TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORY PACKAGES.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
VICINITY OF 60W. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A STRONG 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAYS 4-5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALONG THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY
OF...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 18.8N 56.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 19.8N 57.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.3N 57.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 58.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 25.0N 58.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 34.0N 58.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

information.


397
WTNT42 KNHC 201454
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT
THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WESTERLY
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE HURRICANE...AND WITHIN
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND A WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.
CURRENT DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS SUPPORT AROUND 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED
A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.
THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS BUT IT IS BETTER TO WAIT TO
SEE IF THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES BEFORE DOWNGRADING PHILIPPE.

THIS TRACK FORECAST CONTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AND
ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IN 4-5 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT RELAX AS
EXPECTED AND PHILIPPE WEAKENS...IT COULD TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD
AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK WOULD BE NEEDED.

DUE TO THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARENCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WEAKENS PHILIPPE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO RELAX THE WESTERLY SHEAR IN 12-24
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL. IF PHILIPPE SURVIVES....
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.3N 57.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.8N 57.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 25.0N 59.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 59.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 48.0W 55 KT

[Brent]

HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 40.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 57.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE (AL172005) ON 20050920 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050920 1800 050921 0600 050921 1800 050922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 57.4W 20.1N 57.2W 22.0N 57.4W 23.9N 57.9W
BAMM 18.5N 57.4W 19.7N 57.6W 21.1N 57.7W 22.7N 57.6W
A98E 18.5N 57.4W 19.3N 57.9W 20.2N 58.0W 21.6N 57.9W
LBAR 18.5N 57.4W 19.5N 57.6W 20.8N 58.1W 22.3N 59.0W
SHIP 55KTS 53KTS 58KTS 64KTS
DSHP 55KTS 53KTS 58KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050922 1800 050923 1800 050924 1800 050925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 58.4W 29.5N 58.5W 34.9N 54.1W 42.7N 40.5W
BAMM 24.4N 57.4W 28.5N 56.8W 34.1N 53.4W 40.0N 41.8W
A98E 24.2N 57.0W 29.8N 55.8W 36.9N 51.7W 50.2N 35.9W
LBAR 23.7N 59.9W 25.7N 62.4W 28.4N 63.3W 30.0N 61.7W
SHIP 69KTS 74KTS 78KTS 73KTS
DSHP 69KTS 74KTS 78KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 57.4W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 56.8W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM



Downgraded to a tropical storm.

[TexasStooge]

Ain't gonna worry about him , he's way out in the Atlantic.

[krysof]

supposed to restrengthen once the shear decreases, no threat except shipping and probably waves around Bermuda

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 57.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 57.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.5N 59.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 37.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...PHILIPPE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES... 495 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N... 57.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[curtadams]

supposed to restrengthen once the shear decreases, no threat except shipping and probably waves around Bermuda

They've been consistently underpredicting the shear. What he's in now looks to be taking him apart and it gets much worse to his north.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is the reason why 2005 will not have a cape verde season.

[Rashid]

after absorbing the strong wave that was east of him, Phillipe has a ton of energy to draw in. he's a monster TS!

[Windy]

DOH!

[artist]

Windy - wrong thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

WESTERLY SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N 60W...CONTINUES
TO INHIBIT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF PHILIPPE. THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE SEMBLANCE OF BANDING
FEATURES...WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP AND
SUBSEQUENTLY SHEAR AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE GFS
PREDICTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DEGENERATE INTO A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST SHEAR AXIS...AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL WEAKEN
WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE PHILIPPE MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY PREDICTING TROPICAL 200
MB FLOWS...AND THE SHEARING OVER THE STORM MAY NOT RELAX. IN ANY
EVENT...AROUND 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
FINAL WEAKENING TREND. BY 5 DAYS...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE
MERGING WITH A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE USING INFRARED IMAGERY. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
IS 340/5. REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED. PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...UNTIL IT PASSES ABOUT 32N. AFTERWARD THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MAINLY AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.3N 57.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 27.5N 59.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 32.5N 59.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$

[mtm4319]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 210828
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 57.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[mtm4319]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 210828
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN... AS
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N 60W IMPINGES ON PHILIPPE.
THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN...
AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL LESSEN. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY
THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CAN
HAVE IN PREDICTING TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOWS...I AM SOMEWHAT
DUBIOUS ABOUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
RESTRENGTHENING. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PHILIPPE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL
FORECAST FIELDS.

IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
ALTHOUGH AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0201Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS
NOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THUS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...350/4...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE SLOWER
STARTING SPEED DICTATES A LITTLE SLOWER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME
GENERAL PATH AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL/
UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS. IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT PHILIPPE
WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
SLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS
RUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN
THE SUBTROPICS. THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.5N 57.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 21.2N 57.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.3N 58.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 28.2N 59.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 33.5N 58.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

============================================

000
WTNT22 KNHC 210829
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
0900Z WED SEP 21 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 57.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 57.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 57.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.2N 59.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR 23N
61W CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES
WERE NOT BAD AND ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO BE
MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT DETECT ANY
BELIEVABLE 50 KT WIND VECTORS AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/5. THE FORECAST REASONING
THROUGH 72 HOURS REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL BACK OFF ON ABSORPTION AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A 5 DAY
FORECAST POINT. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THAT SOLUTION...THE 5
DAY FORECAST POINT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

DESPITE THE CURRENT SHEARED CONDITION OF PHILIPPE...AND WITH NO
DECREASE IN SHEAR LIKELY...IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS RE-INTENSIFY PHILIPPE. OUT OF
DEFERENCE TO THIS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE
RESTRENGTHENING...BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING SEEMS JUST AS LIKELY.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.2N 57.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 57.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 23.8N 58.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 58.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 38.5N 50.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 41.5N 44.0W 45 KT

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 360/8.
THE TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD BASED ON THE MORE
NORTHWARD CURRENT MOTION. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS IS NOW THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS
DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THE GFDL AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PHILIPPE WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 120 HOURS...BUT IT MAY HAPPEN SOONER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT
FORECAST TO DECREASE MUCH...ONE WOULD THINK THAT PHILIPPE WOULD
REMAIN STEADY STATE OR CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
INTERACTION BETWEEN PHILLIPE AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 22N62W COULD
TRANSITION THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING
IN 24-36 HOUR WITH AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATER IN THE FORECAST THE SHEAR BECOMES MUCH STRONGER AND THE
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE BECOMING FINALLY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 21.2N 57.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 22.8N 57.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 25.3N 57.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 27.8N 58.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 59.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 49.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 42.5N 41.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

PHILIPPE REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A
LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO ITS
WEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 40 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. IF THE SHEARING INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER CYCLONE PERSISTS...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND
COULD EVEN DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT
THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE. IF THAT WERE TO
VERIFY...THE SYSTEM COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE HYBRID-TYPE OF
STRENGTHENING IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
CYCLONE. INDEED...THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
SHOWS SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 4-5 DAYS.

THE CENTER IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND WITHOUT VISIBLE
IMAGES...SO THE INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN.
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ASSIST
RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES...WITH ACCELERATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A PORTION OF PHILIPPE GETTING PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5...ONLY BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY PICKED UP BY THE
TROUGH.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 22.4N 57.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 26.6N 58.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 29.2N 58.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 31.7N 59.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 35.5N 55.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 38.5N 49.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 42.0N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

PHILIPPE REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A
LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO ITS
WEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 40 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. IF THE SHEARING INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER CYCLONE PERSISTS...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND
COULD EVEN DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT
THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE. IF THAT WERE TO
VERIFY...THE SYSTEM COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE HYBRID-TYPE OF
STRENGTHENING IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
CYCLONE. INDEED...THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
SHOWS SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 4-5 DAYS.

THE CENTER IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND WITHOUT VISIBLE
IMAGES...SO THE INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN.
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ASSIST
RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES...WITH ACCELERATION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A PORTION OF PHILIPPE GETTING PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5...ONLY BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY PICKED UP BY THE
TROUGH.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 22.4N 57.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 26.6N 58.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 29.2N 58.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 31.7N 59.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 35.5N 55.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 38.5N 49.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 42.0N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL