Rita Recon Reports

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, shouldn't a new vortex come in soon?

Yes around 4:30 PM.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 202012
AF302 1218A RITA HDOB 17 KNHC
2001 2410N 08210W 03047 5081 053 088 120 120 089 03015 0000000000
2001. 2409N 08209W 03050 5094 055 081 126 126 084 03006 0000000000
2002 2408N 08208W 03046 5104 056 067 142 108 071 02992 0000000000
2002. 2407N 08207W 03050 5111 059 051 144 108 056 02989 0000000000
2003 2406N 08206W 03044 5118 065 040 152 092 042 02975 0000000000
2003. 2404N 08205W 03050 5123 072 033 150 094 034 02977 0000000000
2004 2402N 08204W 03048 5127 071 026 156 082 029 02970 0000000000
2004. 2401N 08203W 03046 5132 069 025 164 076 026 02964 0000000000
2005 2359N 08203W 03049 5135 064 021 162 072 023 02965 0000000000
2005. 2357N 08202W 03049 5135 062 015 156 082 016 02963 0000000000
2006 2356N 08200W 03049 5137 064 008 154 088 010 02961 0000000000
2006. 2354N 08159W 03050 5138 067 004 156 076 005 02962 0000000000
2007 2353N 08158W 03047 5139 102 003 150 076 003 02957 0000000000
2007. 2351N 08157W 03044 5140 119 002 146 078 003 02954 0000000000
2008 2350N 08157W 03046 5138 222 006 148 078 007 02958 0000000000
2008. 2348N 08155W 03051 5135 245 009 144 086 010 02966 0000000000
2009 2347N 08154W 03050 5133 255 013 146 084 014 02966 0000000000
2009. 2346N 08153W 03046 5132 244 018 142 098 021 02964 0000000000
2010 2345N 08151W 03049 5131 229 023 136 110 026 02968 0000000000
2010. 2344N 08149W 03047 5126 228 035 130 118 041 02970 0000000000



89 kts.

Ding-Dong,Ding-Ding Vortex comming in minutes.

[tracyswfla]

Waiting on pins and needles!

[tracyswfla]

Waiting on pins and needles!

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 202019
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/20:07:30Z
B. 23 deg 51 min N
081 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2870 m
D. 055 kt
E. 324 deg 043 nm
F. 055 deg 089 kt
G. 329 deg 023 nm
H. 973 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 16 C/ 3050 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1218A RITA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NW QUAD 20:00:50 Z



Pressure keeps dropping.

[P.K.]

88kt (30 second average), 89kts (10 second average)

Edit - Seems to have been posted while I was writing this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was close with my 972 millibars.

[cjrciadt]

19mb drop in under 8hrs how long can it drop at this rate?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres 85 mph winds over the northwestern quad. The 100 plus stuff is in the northeastern.

[Brent]

Not surprised...

[raynpa]

Joe B. appears to be on the money again....he said it would pass about 60 miles south of Key West with the pressure going down into the 960's...hmmmmm it appears to heading there.

[jax]

what is the forward speed?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

He was also very close with Katrina.

[jpigott]

key west appears to have lucked out with this baby bombing just to her south. If Rita were just 20-30 miles further north Key west would have born the brunt of her northern eyewall

[jkt21787]

Joe B. appears to be on the money again....he said it would pass about 60 miles south of Key West with the pressure going down into the 960's...hmmmmm it appears to heading there.

Yeah, and he's calling for a cat 4, "probably" cat 5 hit in TX likely on Galveston. All hype.

[deltadog03]

the speed did slow correct?

[jax]

the speed did slow correct?

7 knots... i trhink... i'm not sure...

[raynpa]

Joe B. appears to be on the money again....he said it would pass about 60 miles south of Key West with the pressure going down into the 960's...hmmmmm it appears to heading there.

Yeah, and he's calling for a cat 4, "probably" cat 5 hit in TX likely on Galveston. All hype.

It appears that the first part of his forecast is starting to VERIFY.

[Brent]

Joe B. appears to be on the money again....he said it would pass about 60 miles south of Key West with the pressure going down into the 960's...hmmmmm it appears to heading there.

Yeah, and he's calling for a cat 4, "probably" cat 5 hit in TX likely on Galveston. All hype.

Always the worst case scenario...

[jkt21787]

Joe B. appears to be on the money again....he said it would pass about 60 miles south of Key West with the pressure going down into the 960's...hmmmmm it appears to heading there.

Yeah, and he's calling for a cat 4, "probably" cat 5 hit in TX likely on Galveston. All hype.

It appears that the first part of his forecast is starting to VERIFY.

That was fairly predictable actually. Saying a cat 5 will probably hit TX is going way too far. That's not a forecast. Its only said to bring fear.

You don't forecast a cat 5, especially one for landfall, when over 3 days out. Its stupidity to do so.