Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[loon]

okay, maybe I'm lost...south as in Corpus, because the last consensus I heard was matagorda freeport area....

[HouTXmetro]

These shifts in the models are wearing me thin. I'm getting fustrated with this uncertainty.

[Canelaw99]

Can recon confirm that she is slowing? If so whats the significance on her future path despite most of the models shifting south?

Also doesn't that mean the High is weakening if she is slowing?

Anyone on this???

[dwg71]

A. 20/17:30:30Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
081 deg 31 min W


Lets compare next recon, 12:30 CST. 23.77N & 81.52W. Plane should be there before next advisory.

[djtil]

sounds like bobble watching to me....neither microscale track or speed bobbles have much to do with final landfall 3.5 days out.

if you have a particular fish of interest in the gulf i guess worrying about it is your right......if you live on the texas coast however, and are worried about landfall...nothing that is happening now really has any effect on you.

[Canelaw99]

I would be more concerned about this from a Floridian's point of view. I admit I have no meterological knowledge and don't understand entirely the way all the synoptics are setting up to control Rita's path. However, it would seem to me that if she were, in fact, slowing because the high is weakening, it would allow her to move north sooner potentially impacting someplace besides Texas. Now, that may not be right at all, but it seems to be a legit question, perhaps someone who is a met/met student/etc. could shed light on it for me?

[djtil]

99...if the models and upper air research is so far off that the high is eroded and she is beginning her turn north than we are all in a world of hurt.

but thats not the case...and the high will hold for many many more hours..the only question is really 2-3 days down the road.

in summary....."bobbles".

[corpusbreeze]

Latest nogaps still Brownsville.

[dwg71]

sounds like bobble watching to me....neither microscale track or speed bobbles have much to do with final landfall 3.5 days out.

if you have a particular fish of interest in the gulf i guess worrying about it is your right......if you live on the texas coast however, and are worried about landfall...nothing that is happening now really has any effect on you.

I completely disagree. What happens now is important. It impacts timing. Timing is everything.

[djtil]

nogaps has brought new meaning to atrocious thus far this year.......based on its bias to hold every ridge indefinitely may as well change its name to xtrp

[skysummit]

If that's the high on this WV loop that's in the gulf moving west, it's just about completely out of the gulf now. That ULL is moving SW toward the BOC, and the clouds in the north and northwestern quadrants are now pushing further from the storm.

Is that the high we're all talking about?

[dwg71]

Latest nogaps still Brownsville.

I'll give it this, its consistant. 4 runs in a row, i think.

[skysummit]

Now don't think I'm stupid for thinking this, but what if Rita defies all models? What I'm saying is you know how hurricanes tend to "stretch" in the direction they may be heading? For the past 2 days she's been "stretched" east and west, but now looking at WV, it looks like she's stretching more to the north.

Is there a chance that she's feeling that trough above her and could turn due north or even northeast and follow the weakness?

[Canelaw99]

That's what I was wondering sky

[djtil]

nope, no chance.

[skysummit]

nope, no chance.

Forget about what the models say for a minute and look at the water vapor loop and tell me why there's absolutely no chance. If she indeed did slow a bit, maybe there's a reason.

[BamaMan]

nope, no chance.

Forget about what the models say for a minute and look at the water vapor loop and tell me why there's absolutely no chance. If she indeed did slow a bit, maybe there's a reason.

Exactly

[djtil]

this is all i have to look at:

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/huratl_slp.gif

and you seem to be implying that the nhc is tied down to the models to a fault....do you really give them that little credit...that if they were thrown a suite of models that were all incorrect that they couldnt see that in a few seconds after studying upper air data?

If she indeed did slow a bit, maybe there's a reason.

oh...theres a reason...shes a developing hurricane.

[skysummit]

this is all i have to look at:

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/huratl_slp.gif

and you seem to be implying that the nhc is tied down to the models to a fault....do you really give them that little credit...that if they were thrown a suite of models that were all incorrect that they couldnt see that in a few seconds after studying upper air data?

I would appreciate if you kept personal feelings out of this. You saying "I seem to be implying" is out of line. All I asked about was the reasoning behind you saying no chance. If you would've backed up your statement the first time, I wouldn't have asked.

[djtil]

you said "forget about the models".......i believe that the main implication here was a "what if" scenario in that all the models were incorrect.....and we have no other authority. i was pointing out that this is not the case.....to you...personally.